19.07 Polls Review Positive stratification: Russians' economic optimism continues to grow, alongside concerns and frustrations about their future and security 18.07 Review Battle for Imports: After a short-term dip, Russian imports are showing signs of recovery with the effect of sanctions weaker than expected. But things remain uncertain 17.07 War Analytics An Hour Before Dawn: Russia failed to capitalise on the advantage it had at the start of this year's major offensive in Ukraine While in early May most military analysts were extremely pessimistic about the situation of the Ukrainian army following the start of the Russian offensive, by early July the tone of the commentary had changed. The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has been halted and has not achieved its objectives, and although the likelihood of further Russian advances remains, the probability of this no longer seems high. 17.07 Review Authoritarian-Colonial Syndrome: The Kremlin's autocratic approach to relations with regional elites remains a source of electoral tensions and could lead to significant problems in the future 16.07 Review Three Trillion for The Living and The Dead: Over the past 12 months, payments to Russian soldiers at war, as well as to the wounded and families of those killed, totalled the equivalent of 1.5% of GDP 15.07 Polls Review Erosion of Clarity: Support for Ukraine and President Zelensky is waning worldwide, while there has been a slight increase in sympathy for Russia and Putin 15.07 Expertise From adaptation to mobilisation: The logic of changes in state-business relations in the context of war and sanctions Andrei Yakovlev If macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, a revision of the principles of coexistence and interaction that have developed between Russian business and the state over the past two decades seems almost inevitable – even though these very principles have ensured that the Russian economy has been highly adaptable to the shocks experienced. 12.07 Analytics NATO's Anniversary Crisis: The Ukraine issue is currently dividing the alliance, but will strengthen it in the medium term The NATO summit in Washington did not demonstrate the 'unprecedented unity' of the alliance, but it also does not appear to be a harbinger of its end. For 75 years, NATO has experienced many crises related to the significant differences among its members on global security issues. However, this has not led to its dissolution. There is no alternative to it today either. 11.07 Review China's Trojan Horse: Orbán's visit to China reflects the strategic divergence between Hungary and the EU on key political and economic issues 11.07 Analytics The War Equation: How do military conflicts end and why does the 'values' approach lose out to the 'brokering' approach? The debate on the need for a negotiated end to the Russia-Ukraine war is increasingly moving to the centre of the international agenda, and there is a growing likelihood that the fate of the war will be determined with the involvement of players who view it not as a conflict of values but as a conflict of interests that can be resolved through bargaining. 10.07 Expertise Unpopular War: Russian opponents and non-opponents of the invasion of Ukraine. Part 2 Svetlana Erpileva Researchers identify four types of opponents to the war: ‘integrators’',isolationists', 'the oppressed', and 'activists', noting that a common trend among them is to seek common ground and interaction with the surrounding atmosphere of acceptance of the war, which, however, does not turn them into its supporters. 10.07 Expertise Unpopular War: Russian Opponents and Non-Opponents of the Invasion of Ukraine. Part 1 Sasha Kappinen, Oleg Zhuravlev The personal impressions accumulated by the average Russian about the course of the war and its impact on the life of the country partially undermine trust in official information and provoke more critical judgements about the military conflict and its consequences for Russia and Russian society. However, this criticism is not transformed into an anti-war stance. 09.07 Review Credit Front: Military aid to Ukraine may be meaningless if it is not backed up by a strategy of financial and infrastructural ‘resistance’ 08.07 China Analytics Triangle of Great Powers: Will Russia-China rapprochement turn into a full-fledged military alliance? The rapprochement between Russia and China is based on both countries' desire to weaken the US. Meanwhile, the main motive for confrontation with the West for the Russian elites and populace remains the recognition of Russia's status as a global veto player. However, this confrontation will lose its meaning for them if it turns out that this status goes not to Russia, but to China. 04.07 EU Analytics Right West and Right East: Will Europe’s rightward shift benefit Putin? Divergent views on the war in Ukraine have been one of the main reasons why far-right parties have been unable to form a united faction in the European Parliament. However, the prospect of increased representation in European politics and Europe's fatigue with the war are pushing them to overcome previous disagreements. 04.07 Review Toxic Convertibility: Russia already has de facto different exchange rates for the ruble, although the difference between them is still insignificant 03.07 Propaganda Analytics Three Types of Patriotism: Younger generations of Russians are more critical of the war and isolationist policies and are therefore subject to various 're-education' strategies Contrary to the belief that society is an arena of confrontation between true patriots and 'enemies of Russia', Russian public opinion distinguishes three varieties of 'patriotism': the coercive paternalistic-Soviet type, characteristic of older generations; a more modern version, typical of the youth; and the repressive-militaristic type, focused on uncompromisingly combating the ‘youthful’ version. 02.07 Review Growth on Growth: The dynamics of Russian industry oscillates between stagnation and weak growth, excluding military production 02.07 Expertise Nuclear Inferiority Complex: Escalation rhetoric through the prism of the Cold War experience Sergey Radchenko Russia's current leadership has inherited from the Soviet rulers a sense of a lack of recognition of its right to be a global power. This tension defined Soviet policy during the Cold War — from Stalin's expansionism to Khrushchev's nuclear adventurism. Today's Russian leaders have largely replicated this model; however, the Kremlin's capabilities are much further removed from these global ambitions than they were during the Soviet era. 28.06 Review Incurable Disease: Accelerating inflation is the flip side of ‘military Keynesianism’ and economic growth under the conditions of sanctions and the 'special military operation' 27.06 Analytics People vs. Drones: Why are the Russian authorities increasing payments to contract soldiers and how does this affect Russians' attitude to war? Russian regions are racing to increase payments to contract soldiers: since last summer, their average size has grown 1.7 times, reaching the average annual per capita income in the country. Such a contract is highly competitive for most regions of Russia; however, the increase in losses due to the Russian offensive and the sharp expansion of the drone arsenal of the Ukrainian Armed Forces could lead this model to a dead end. 26.06 Polls Review Sanctions Rally: International sanctions lead to patriotic mobilisation while their economic impact on the 'common man' seems to be insignificant 24.06 Review Going Backwards: Putin has succeeded in dragging Europe and NATO into an arms race that Russia categorically cannot match 21.06 Analytics Extraordinary Legitimacy: Amid protracted war, demand for accountability in Ukraine has increased, but this is a sign of normalisation, not crisis The 'rally around the flag' effect in Ukrainian society continues to weaken, and Zelensky's rating continues to decline. The weakening of Zelensky's 'extraordinary' legitimacy is, however, not a sign of crisis, but a return to normality. In the context of a protracted war, the demand for accountability in Ukraine has increased, and the government will have to reckon with it. 21.06 Review Multipolar Nuclear Threat: The normalisation of nuclear blackmail by the Kremlin leads to a new arms race, more dangerous than the previous one 20.06 Expertise Parallel Cheremushkin: The Absence and Presence of 'War' in a Provincial Russian City Ilya Roshal, Sasha Kappinen From the very beginning of the war, sociologists have faced the question of how to study public opinion under a repressive and militaristic regime. To understand how Russians feel about the war and adapt to the new military reality, researchers from the Public Sociology Laboratory have conducted an incredible immersion experiment – they travelled to three Russian regions, where they spent a month in participant observation mode, without publicising the subject of their study. 19.06 Review Independence Fetish: The reduction of Russian industry's dependence on imports is unsustainable and largely illusory 18.06 Polls Analytics Pro-War Spring: Support for the war in Russia is growing amid economic prosperity and belief in imminent victory The spring increase in support for the 'special military operation' among Russians is linked to the overall improvement in social sentiments and heightened confidence in Russia's advantage on the battlefield. However, the poll results are likely to inaccurately reflect public preferences: in reality, the proportion of those not sympathetic to the war may be about one and a half times higher than what we see in the poll distributions. 18.06 Review 'Roofing' the Sahel: Russia is expanding its influence in Africa through violence, local elites’ lust for power, and Western miscalculations 14.06 Analytics Paper Bridge: Western allies have the ambition but lack the resolve to provide sustainable and effective aid to Ukraine Western allies must recognise that it is only possible to fulfil their declared commitments to help Ukraine by spending money comparable to what the Kremlin is spending on the war in Ukraine. Otherwise, summits will continue to produce unfulfilled promises, undermining global confidence in the Western alliance. 13.06 Analytics Loyalty rules and change of favourites: what do the governor resignations and appointments of spring-2024 tell us? The number of replacements in the Russian gubernatorial corps in May and June indicates the Kremlin's return to 'peacetime' standards. The new appointments send a double signal: the cost of mistakes, even for those who are categorised as 'children' in the Russian elite, and the further strengthening of the 'party of adjutants' based on personal loyalty to Putin. 11.06 Review Trump Insurance: A loan to finance support for Ukraine, secured by the proceeds from frozen Russian assets, will make Ukraine and Europe less dependent on the outcome of the US election 11.06 Future Expertise Protracted Military Putinism: How long it will last and how it will end. Realities and projections Kirill Rogov The political regime that emerged in Russia as a result of the transformation of the war from blitzkrieg into a protracted conflict has overcome a period of vulnerability and instability. Protracted military Putinism should now be considered the baseline scenario, within which the regime is able to mitigate imbalances, endure significant deterioration of the economy and manage political risks. However, this does not mean that the regime has overcome threats and challenges. 10.06 EU Review European Balance: The far-right lacks the power to change Europe's trajectory, but has enough to make it inconsistent and indecisive 07.06 EU Review Europe at Different Speeds: Reforming European military and political institutions should begin without waiting for the agreement of all EU members, according to German experts 06.06 Review People Instead of Oil: The Kremlin is preparing for the likely decrease in oil prices at the end of 2024 and in 2025 06.06 EU Review Rightward Tilt: The European Parliament elections will lead to significant consequences despite only a moderate weakening of the centrist coalition 05.06 Propaganda Review World Wide Web Laundry: Russian propaganda reaches Western and global audiences through an Internet promotion ecosystem that the West cannot counteract 04.06 Review Standing Rates: Credit growth had continued thanks to preferential interest rates, high inflation expectations and above-average rates of price growth in a number of sectors 04.06 Sanctions Expertise Dynamics of Isolation in Conditions of Fragmentation: The results of two years of the sanctions experiment Alexander Libman The limited effect of sanctions against Russia has been determined by several factors: changes in the structure of the global economy, the effects of the logic of arbitrage, and the internal contradictions of the sanctions regime. Any further dynamics of the impact of sanctions will be cyclical: new tools of control will be created and new ways to circumvent them will emerge as a result. And, in the long term, everything will depend on the extent to which the Russian economy retains its market core. 03.06 Analytics New Oil for The New Patrushev: The newly appointed deputy prime minister will undertake the consolidation of the agro-industrial complex into ‘safe hands’ and the transformation of grain into a ‘silent weapon’ The idea of grain as the ‘new oil’ and a geopolitical tool has led Russia to squeeze foreign companies out of the market and start the process of consolidating the industry in ‘safe hands’ under quasi-state control. This is the exact strategic vision that led to the disaster of Russian gas exports. 31.05 Analytics A Hatchet in Murky Waters: Why Russian border guards removed buoys on the Narva River By publishing a plan to revise the borders in the Baltic sea and then voluntarily removing the border buoys placed by Estonia on the Narva River, Moscow has begun to exert direct political pressure on its Baltic neighbours. Western countries have a few years to create an effective strategy to contain Russia in the Baltic, while Moscow is preoccupied with its war in Ukraine. 30.05 Repressions Analytics Soviet and Non-Soviet: The scale of repression in Russia at the beginning of 2024 has decreased slightly, but the regime’s level of repressiveness remains high The profile of repression in today's Russia is characterised by signs of a ‘young’, not fully established repressive regime. It is marked by a degree of chaos, unclear ‘red lines’, a focus on demonstrative effects, symbolic mobilisation, and a high level of unregulated physical violence. 28.05 Review Gas and Brake: The Russian economy is influenced by the contradictory aspirations of the economic authorities and the ‘flickering’ effect of sanctions 27.05 Expertise The Aftermath of Crocus City Hall Terrorist Attack: Labor Migration Policy, Public opinion and Dysfunctional Autocracy The terror attack at Crocus City Hall was a catastrophic failure by the Russian authorities and security services. However, the Kremlin's dual strategy of blaming Ukraine and the West for the attack along with a large-scale anti-migrant campaign, has allowed the authorities to shirk responsibility for this failure. Authoritarian dysfunction results in human and economic losses but is offset by the successful use of conservative mobilisation tools. 27.05 Propaganda Review Pre-election Pacifism: The Kremlin has signalled its readiness for peace talks as part of a strategy to support the pacifist rhetoric of the far right and far left ahead of the European Parliament elections 24.05 Analytics Changing the Nuclear Game: Why the Russian offensive on Kharkiv evokes memories of the Caribbean crisis If the West does not respond adequately to Russian nuclear blackmail today, this tactic will be used by other nuclear powers. The only strategy that will work is for Washington and its allies to recognise that the old rules of nuclear deterrence are broken and the world is approaching a new state of ‘brinkmanship’. 23.05 Review Forced Boom: The surge in investment activity in 2022 and 2023 is aimed at offsetting the effect of sanctions and meeting the needs of the war, and therefore does not lead to an increase in national wealth compared to pre-war levels 22.05 Expertise Inside and Outside Censorship: The Russian media landscape two years after the outbreak of the war Ksenia Luchenko Over the past two years, the Russian media landscape has undergone an unprecedented transformation. Following the onset of the war and the introduction of what can be considered as wartime censorship in Russia, a significant portion of the country’s media relocated beyond the country and continued its activities in uncensored spaces. The outcomes of this unique experiment are likely to be significant not only for Russia but also for other countries undergoing processes of autocratisation. 22.05 Review Flagships of Homophobia: Discrimination against the LGBTQ+ community has become a key tool of authoritarian populism and the promotion of an anti-Western agenda in the post-Soviet space 21.05 China Analytics Divergence Time: After the energy break with Russia, Europe must more responsibly assess the risks of trade dependence on China Growing geopolitical tensions make the dependence of European businesses on Chinese supplies a huge risk. Many companies, especially those in Germany, are looking for ways to reduce this dependence; however, this involves costs and reduced competitiveness. Nevertheless, the price of a sudden and unprepared break with China would be incomparably higher for Europe. 20.05 USA Review A Vicious Cycle: American public opinion recognises the failure of the policy of containing Russia and China, but cannot reach a consensus on key foreign policy issues 17.05 Propaganda Analytics Firehose of Falsehoods: Russian propaganda is increasingly looking like an existential problem for the West that it is not yet able to effectively address Propaganda helps Moscow to win the favour not only of the populations of the Global South, but also with residents of Western countries. In a global and open information network, blocking and banning ‘brands’ does not work well and leads only to the ‘mimicry of disinformation'. To counter the power of Russian propaganda, The West lacks the resources, as well as the understanding of how to fight this battle. 17.05 China Review Beijing-Style Friendship: Despite the statements from Putin and Xi, economic cooperation between Russia and China is deteriorating due to the threat of US sanctions 16.05 Analytics The Last Term’s Great Game of Solitaire: What the dismissals and appointments in government agencies indicate Nikolay Petrov, Kirill Rogov, Oleg Khokhlov By the end of his current presidential term, Putin will be 78 years old, and this an age at which his real managerial control will inevitably weaken. In a scenario of inertia, the configuration of power that will have emerged by that time will largely determine its post-Putin character. This makes the latest reshuffle of the top ranks of the administrative apparatus particularly important. 14.05 Polls Analytics The War of Narratives: By imposing its interpretation of the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, the Kremlin has been able to absolve itself of responsibility for the failure and also influence the growth of support for the war According to polls, about 65% of Russians support the Kremlin's version of events that Ukrainian and Western security services were behind the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall. The propaganda-imposed framing of an ‘existential’ confrontation with the West has helped the authorities mitigate the catastrophic failure of the security services, which failed to prevent the terrorist attack despite warnings. 14.05 Analytics Authoritarian Dysfunction: Why the Russian authorities hunt migrants The massive and senseless campaign by the authorities and law enforcement agencies against migrant workers in the initial weeks after the terror attack at Crocus City Hall can only be explained by the desire to send a message of ‘security’ and reliable control over threats to the population after the fact, thus ‘erasing’ any impression of their inaction and incompetence during the terrorist attack. 14.05 Polls Expertise Between Moderate Xenophobia and Low Tolerance: The perception of migrants after the terror attack at Crocus City Hall Vladimir Zvonovsky, Alexander Khodykin After the terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall, the number of attacks on Central Asian migrants and anti-migrant statements by Russian authorities and politicians has markedly increased. However, polling data does not indicate a surge in xenophobia, which remains at a moderate level, rather it shows a majority loyal to the authorities, who are not receiving signals of tolerance from above. It is these signals that fuel their ‘suspicion’ towards migrants. 08.05 Propaganda Review Kremlin Swipe: Ahead of the US election, the Kremlin is betting on TikTok, the popularity of which is rapidly growing in America, but experts believe that shutting down the social network would be a bad decision 07.05 Sanctions Review Sanctions Compliance: Western banks can play a key role in controlling the supply of dual-use goods to Russia 07.05 Propaganda Expertise Bots On Russian Social Media: How Network Propaganda Works by Alesya Sokolova We deal with bots and trolls every day, often without noticing or realising it. There may not be many of them, but their activity, consolidated position, and aggressiveness allow them to capture and moderate the discussion, provoking an effect similar to the phenomenon of the ‘spiral of silence'. Bots and trolls are tools of horizontal network propaganda, designed to distort real users' perception of the nation’s 'imaginary majority'. 06.05 Analytics The Loss of India: The war in Ukraine is depriving Russia of its largest arms market, which it will be unable to replace India has relied almost entirely on Soviet and Russian weapons since the 1960s, but is now rapidly diversifying its defence imports due to international sanctions, the technological regression of the Russian military-industrial complex and its inability to ensure stable supplies. The war in Ukraine and the breakdown of economic relations with the West are leading Russia to lose its place as a major player in the global arms market. 03.05 USA Review Choosing an Enemy: Despite the approval of the aid package for Ukraine, the debate surrounding the strategic priorities for US foreign policy is not losing steam and will only intensify 02.05 Review Ageing Labour: Pension reform has halted the decline in the working-age population, but is unable to solve the problem of reducing the inflow of new workers 30.04 Analytics Delayed Package: The delay in US military aid has brought the Kremlin closer to winning a war of attrition The delay in military aid to Ukraine has had an effect: Russian forces have gained a tactical advantage that improves their position ahead of an anticipated large-scale offensive. In the coming weeks, Ukraine must overcome the consequences of this pause, which has resulted in a critical shortage of human resources and a decline in morale in the Ukrainian military and society as a whole. 29.04 Review The Global Struggle for the Global South: The US is continuing to lose popularity in the developing world, but China has not yet emerged as a credible alternative 26.04 Review The Habit of Killing: Z-crimes, or crimes committed 'in civilian life' by those who have taken part in the war, are becoming a new social norm and are now practically legalised by the authorities 25.04 Review Three-headed Axis: Russia, Iran and China are intensifying cooperation in an effort to change the world order, but have different visions of the outcome 25.04 Review Window of Opportunity: The collapse of logistics and the rise in consumer demand have led to a boom in the small and medium business sector 24.04 Expertise 'The Russian Model' in Search of Unemployment: the specifics of the Russian labour market hinder its adaptation to structural shifts Labour shortage and the frantic demand for workers are contributing to wage growth and adding to the overheating of the Russian economy and inflation. This unfavourable situation is exacerbated by the specific features of the Russian labour market model that have developed in the post-Soviet period. It ensures low formal unemployment and enables the market to adapt well to crises, but it hinders the relocation of the workforce in the face of various structural or cyclical shifts. 23.04 War Review War Draws Closer: The war in Ukraine and geopolitical turbulence have triggered a global arms race — everyone is arming themselves 23.04 Review The Internet Has Overtaken TV: Social networks and platforms continue their expansion as the main source of news in Russia 22.04 Review Caught Between the Oven and the Fridge: The Russian economy continues to overheat as a consumer boom emerges 19.04 War Review The Point of No Return: As a result of strategic miscalculations and the indecision of its allies, Ukraine is on the brink of military disaster 18.04 Review Unsinkable Globalisation and the Decline of ‘Chimerica’: The world economy is adapting to the shocks of the early 2020s, with high interest rates and geopolitical risks 17.04 Review Reforms and Money: Ukraine will need $1 trillion for reconstruction, but the main problem is not the money, but the success of structural reforms 16.04 Sanctions Review Sanctions Game: The US has managed to create problems for the import of microelectronics into Russia, but even more importantly, to limit the development of its domestic production 16.04 USA Review Between Two 'Nos': The threat of a Russian offensive is mobilising US public opinion in support of Ukraine, but not yet enough 15.04 Sanctions Analytics Liquification of Plans and Tertiary Sanctions Effect: How and why Russia lost its prospects in the global LNG market As a rule, sanctions do not lead to the immediate loss of export markets, but to their gradual restructuring. Political decisions transform into economic costs, resulting in a sharp contraction of the niche for Russian producers. Alongside the arms and metals markets, LNG exports represent another sphere of lost opportunities for Russia. 12.04 Review Russian Cap for Georgia: The creation of a Black Sea Fleet naval base in Abkhazia will significantly limit Georgian sovereignty 12.04 Review Structural Frenzy: Russia's labour shortage is caused by the restructuring of the economy, the needs of which do not correspond to demographic realities, and artificial reduction of productive employment 11.04 Sanctions Review The Discount has Shifted: Russian budget oil and gas revenues soared at the beginning of the year due to the narrowing discount of Urals to Brent, but there is still potential for sanctions to be toughened 10.04 Analytics Two Approaches: Why Russia has suffered a setback in the arms markets while Türkiye is achieving success The war in Ukraine is leading to Russia's irreversible loss of its position in the international arms market, with Türkiye emerging as one of the beneficiaries of this redistribution. Türkiye is successfully implementing a strategy of multipolar foreign policy and defence exports that the Russian authorities once dreamed of. With the onset of the war, this strategy has become impossible for Russia. 09.04 Review Children of Redistribution in a Closed System: The redistribution of property in Russia will be accompanied by asset inflation, increased monopolisation and the degradation of corporate culture 09.04 Discussion The Opposition Paradox: Putin has more opponents in Russia than it seems, but they lack a common public agenda Sergey Shelin One of the reasons for the repeated failures of the Russian opposition lies in its traditional fixation on 'playing by the other team’s rules', that is they focus on electoral procedures, which bring moral satisfaction from participation but invariably result in political defeat. The other side to this fixation is the weakness of the public agenda, the lack of a coherent picture of ideas and convictions that could oppose Putinism. 08.04 Mobilisation Analytics Double Mobilisation: Russia and Ukraine need to mobilise 300,000 men each for a decisive clash by the end of the year After two years of war, both Russia and Ukraine have found themselves in need for a new mobilisation. Although its political cost seems high against the backdrop of conflict fatigue in both countries, Russia will try to launch a large-scale offensive before the end of the year, requiring 300,000 new recruits from each side. 05.04 Review Unmanned Disruption: The direct and indirect consequences of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries 05.04 Propaganda Expertise Propaganda in the Network Environment: How propaganda has changed in the era of social media and during times of war Gregory Asmolov Propaganda in the era of social media is aimed not so much at promoting a particular ideological doctrine as at moderating public discourse. It may address various messages to different audiences and primarily involves engaging the consumer in the process of dissemination, a sort of process of co-authorship. Today, the Russian state effectively utilises all these properties and capabilities of network propaganda. 04.04 Polls Review Conditional Peace: The group in favour of unconditional peace may constitute up to 25-30%, while the group in favour of unconditional victory could be around 20%, a Russian poll suggests 04.04 Review Adaptive Ukraine: The country’s economy grew by 5% in 2023, but to continue this growth, stability in Western aid and European efforts to open European markets up to Ukraine are necessary 03.04 Analytics 'Acceptance Cannot Be Unaccepted': Western countries must find innovative models for Ukraine's integration into the collective security system NATO cannot provide Ukraine with security guarantees as long as the conflict continues, and the Kremlin has no interest in putting an end to it. However, the history of the alliance itself and the entire international security system created after World War II shows that innovative solutions are needed to break such a deadlock, provided there is political will. 02.04 Review Lying Unevenly on One Side: Russian industrial production is stagnating, and fundamentally important sectors are not showing signs of recovery 02.04 Analytics The Fictitious Anti-terror Industry: How Russia fought terrorism and its results After Putin’s return to the Kremlin in 2012, the fight against terrorism in Russia increasingly morphed into an industry of repression, loosely and hypothetically linked to real terrorist activity. This transformation resulted in a lack of understanding of the evolving map of terrorist threats and a sense of helplessness in the face of warnings about actual terror attacks. 01.04 Review Authoritarian Incompetence and the Geography of Terror: Why and How Russian authorities missed the terror threat from Tajikistan 29.03 Review Pressure Cap: The effectiveness of secondary sanctions and the growth of oil supply create favourable conditions for a possible lowering of the price cap on Russian oil 28.03 Review The Pendulum of Democracy: Democracy continues to be eroded worldwide, but this regression does not appear to be total 26.03 Sanctions Review How Sanctions Work: High-tech industries manage to maintain services and infrastructure, but fail to develop them 25.03 EU Review The Right Turn: Is the triumph of the extreme right in Europe inevitable, and what role does Russia play in it? 22.03 Review Centralisation Blind Spots: Elites in Russia and China have similar perceptions of the factors of their competitiveness, justifying their choice in favour of autocracy and unification 22.03 Review The Two Tap Policy: The growth of wages and incomes has fuelled the overheating of consumer demand, negating the Central Bank's efforts to curb it 21.03 War Review Window of Defeat: The Russian army is advancing its offensive by exploiting the advantage in manpower, innovation and the lack of weaponry on the Ukrainian side 20.03 Review Oil Puzzle: OPEC+ will not abandon its strategy of maintaining high prices despite market share erosion 20.03 Analytics Two-stage Manipulation and The 'Deep Nation': How many people turned up to vote, and how many did not Without coercion and fraud, Putin would have won the election with approximately 54% of the vote, while the alternative candidate would have scored 34%. The election result would have been the same, but the outcome would have been very different. The notion of the hegemony of the 'deep nation' would have been significantly adjusted, and this would have created a very different political perspective. 18.03 Analytics 87% Dictatorship: Fictitious constitutionality, kleptofascism and protest queues Kirill Rogov War, repression and fraud allowed the regime to achieve a 'Turkmen-style' result in the presidential elections, but they have not yet turned Russia into Turkmenistan, as evidenced by the protest queues throughout the duration of the campaign. The social structure of Russian society, formed over the previous decades, is far from that which sustains stable autocracies. 15.03 Review 80 by 80: The administrative-industrial vertical is designed to saturate polling stations with people and create the image of popular approval 14.03 Review Military Levies: Tax hikes mark a transition from temporary to permanent revenue mobilisation 13.03 Analytics Putin-Trump Plan: Developments in Washington increase the likelyhood of both getting what they want want After meeting with Donald Trump, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated that, if elected president, Trump intends to compel Ukraine to engage in peace talks by completely cutting off its support. Trump himself has spoken sparingly on the Ukrainian issue as the majority of Americans, including at least half of Republicans, still believe it is necessary to help Kyiv. 13.03 Analytics The Homophobes' Dream: A Putinist 'gay propaganda' law is designed to help Georgian Dream gain a lasting foothold as Georgia's ruling party The ruling coalition in Georgia is attempting to restyle the electoral agenda and public fault lines by promoting the Putinist law banning 'gay propaganda'. Homophobia is becoming a universal tool for mobilising anti-liberal and anti-Western sentiment in support of authoritarian ideologies and political forces. 12.03 EU Analytics Paper Defence And Strategic Dependence: European security strategies will only become a reality with a dramatic increase in defence spending to make up for 20 years of underfunding The war in Ukraine, the need for large-scale military assistance to Kyiv and the direct threat to EU security from Russia have exposed critical problems in Europe's defence capabilities. Current EU military spending falls significantly short of addressing the critical underfunding of European defence capabilities over the past two decades. 11.03 China Review Chinese Triangle: The EU is determined to reduce economic dependence on China, but is not ready to join the US trade war 08.03 Review Soviet versus Non-Soviet: The influence of pro-Russian narratives in the post-Soviet space is declining 08.03 Review Torture, Money, and the Housing Issue: How the Kremlin is creating conditions for the irreversibility of the occupation of Ukrainian territories 07.03 Analytics Putin's Reshuffle: Deprivatisation as a 'national project' for elite reformatting and preparation for power transition The process of deprivatisation and property redistribution gaining momentum is part of a profound social transformation of the country and an attempt to reform and consolidate the Russian elite based on the ideology of 'kleptofascism', which has arisen from the justification of the war. In this case, this process is part of Putin's plan for power transition, aimed at preserving his ideological legacy even after his departure. 06.03 Review The Decline of Military Euphoria: Stagnation in Russian industry is unlikely to be overcome if the export situation does not improve again 06.03 Review Remain to Leave or Leave to Remain: Statistics on the outcome of foreign companies from Russia say little about real business processes 05.03 Navalny Expertise Spontaneous sanctuaries: Navalny's death and memorial protest in Russia Alexandra Arkhipova, Yuri Lapshin Over the past two weeks, a wave of spontaneous memorials to Navalny has swept across Russia around symbolically charged places such as monuments to victims of political repression, but also in courtyards and entrances of residential buildings, and even on online maps. During this time, there have been at least 500 'flower' memorials in 232 cities and towns in Russia, and the list continues to grow. What do they mean, and what tradition stands behind them? 05.03 Navalny Analytics Lethal Neutrality: What do public opinion polls say about Navalny's death as a political event? Despite the silence in state-controlled media, Navalny's death came as a shock to Russian society. There is no doubt that this event and its interpretation will be the subject of a fierce political struggle in the days to come. What do the initial public opinion polls say about the population's reaction to the demise of Putin's main opponent? 04.03 Review The Crisis of Democracy: Rigged elections, armed conflict and global rivalry 04.03 Review The Crisis of Democracy: Trust in elected politicians is decreasing everywhere, but in the West, the decline is leading to polarisation, while in the Global South it risks a revival of authoritarianism 01.03 Review Clash of Narratives: War and pro-war propaganda are contributing to the polarisation of imperial and anti-colonial sentiments in Russia’s regions 01.03 EU Review Slow Aid: Europe can significantly increase support for Ukraine without taking on new commitments, simply by accelerating the implementation of existing ones 29.02 War Review Calculating Losses: The ‘meat grinder' strategy remains the main element of the Russian offensive doctrine 28.02 Polls Analytics Middle-Age Deprivation: Why do most Russians want an end to war, but will not support an anti-war candidate in the elections? And, is that really accurate? Among Russian youth, supporters of an unconditional end to the war dominate, while among older age groups, proponents of pro-war views prevail. In between are those who are willing to support a transition to peace initiated by Putin or the start of peace negotiations but are not ready for the unilateral withdrawal of troops or to support an anti-war candidate as an alternative to Putin. 27.02 Future Review The Russian Matrix Plus China: Presidential elections and scenarios for the country's future 27.02 China Review Gravity News: In 2023, China became the dominant economic partner for Central Asia 26.02 Review Optimism Inflation: Why the Central Bank's business climate indicator gives a distorted picture of economic sentiments 23.02 Review Resilient Realism: Europe may not believe in Ukraine's military victory, but it must defend its pro-European choice 23.02 Review Victory and Defeat: Zaluzhny's resignation makes Volodymyr Zelensky's extension of his presidential term at the end of May 2024 more problematic 22.02 Review Who is Undermining NATO? The future of the alliance depends more on the positions of Germany and France than on Donald Trump 21.02 Review Hard Drying: The Kremlin aims to make elections dangerous for all participants and uninteresting for voters 21.02 Review Gas Without You: The EU could completely stop using Russian gas this year, but is likely to postpone this decision for political reasons 20.02 Navalny Review Navalny's Death Has Become an International Event: The West is outraged but powerless, while Trump and the Global South are trying not to offend Putin 20.02 Review Pigeons or Ostriches? The United States' tough stance towards post-war Russia is expected to strengthen the alliance between Moscow and Beijing, according to RAND experts 19.02 Navalny Expertise The Lead-up to the Murder: Navalny and protest politics in Russia Kirill Rogov Alexei Navalny emerged as a central figure in opposition to Putin's authoritarianism, inspiring tens of thousands with the heroism of his fearlessness and fostering a new ethic of resistance. However, Navalny's political biography is not merely a derivative of his heroic persona. The phenomenon of Navalny is shaped by a confluence of expectations and aspirations that he embodied, becoming both a voluntary hostage and a symbol of them. 16.02 Polls Review The Struggle for Peace: The Nadezhdin case and the expansion of calls for an end to the war may influence Vladimir Putin's election rhetoric 15.02 Sanctions Review Rusty Business: The fight against Russia's shadow fleet may only have a significant impact within conditions of a deficit-free oil market and relatively low prices 14.02 War Review Year of resilience: If Ukraine holds out in 2024, experts believe Russia will never be able to achieve victory in the war 14.02 Sanctions Review Minus $50 Billion: The Yermak-McFaul group has proposed measures to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war and maintain stability in Russia 14.02 Ideologies Expertise Historical Politics: Ideologisation of society as an attempt to change Post-Soviet identity Ivan Kurilla The current stage of the state's ideological expansion is designed, on the one hand, to definitively exclude and 'cancel' the liberal segment of Russian society, and, on the other hand, to change the identity of that part of society that absorbed the ideological opportunism of the 2000s, thereby neutralising the value baggage and liberal aspirations of the perestroika and post-perestroika era. 13.02 Review Windfall Revenues: Record growth in the real incomes of Russians was a result of military orders and labour market shortages 13.02 Review Anticipating hybrid war: In the run up to its presidential elections, Moldova will become a new battleground between Russia and the West this year 09.02 Polls Review Three majorities: Russians continue to support military action in Ukraine, but consider the cost too high and are leaning towards peace talks 09.02 War Review Out of the trenches: To avoid losing a war of attrition, Ukraine must transform the conflict into an asymmetric war of tactical and technological innovation 08.02 Review Record Bank Swing: Super-high bank profits are a manifestation of market volatility and macroeconomic conditions that may lead to a systemic crisis 07.02 Review Loss of Momentum: at the end of 2023, industry in Russia stagnated, with even the military-industrial complex cooling down 07.02 Repressions Analytics From War to Prison: Repression in Russia is becoming more 'planned' and harsh, but not more widespread Having outlined the basic contours of repressive legislation in 2022, in 2023, the Putin regime focused on toughening penalties and expanding the scope for their arbitrary application. The authorities seek not to increase the scale of repression too much, but to achieve a maximum demonstrative and intimidating effect. 07.02 Sanctions Review Spillover Effect: Russia’s economy may face a new wave of sanctions stress at the beginning of the year 06.02 Future Review Gloomy with a Glimpse of Sunshine: US global leadership, Middle East settlement, the end of the Putin era, the diminishing likelihood of conflict over Taiwan and the challenges of the third nuclear era 02.02 Review Victory over Inflation: The surge of New Year optimism among Russians conceals a deterioration in assessments of their material situation caused by the increase of prices at the end of 2023 01.02 Review OPEC minus: Against the backdrop of rising oil production, OPEC+ has lost its leverage on the market, which threatens to break up the alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia and to significantly reduce Russian oil revenues 31.01 Review The Case of Three Hundred Billion: The confiscation of frozen Russian assets seems fair and rational, but it is illegal 29.01 Analytics How Steel Cools: The war with Ukraine has destroyed Russian steel exports and will lead to a gradual degradation of the industry Analysis of the Russian steel industry shows that the widespread belief in the ineffectiveness of Western sanctions is a misconception. Their impact becomes apparent after a significant delay and, at the same time, has a long-term character, leading to the loss of markets that would be almost impossible to regain even if the sanctions were lifted. 26.01 Polls Review Military Deadlock: How Russians' views on the ‘military operation’ changed during the second year of the conflict 26.01 Review Parallel Landing: The Russian economy is showing signs of both a slowdown in price growth and a decline in business activity 24.01 Polls Expertise The Dead Ends of War: How public opinion changed during the second year of the war Elena Koneva, Vladimir Zvonovsky, Kirill Rogov, Alexander Khodykin 24.01 Polls Expertise Second Demobilisation: How public opinion changed during the second year of the war Elena Koneva, Kirill Rogov The core of support for the war in 2023 decreased one and a half times and became proportionate to those who generally lean towards anti-war views. The share of those who would be unwilling to support a decision by Putin to immediately withdraw troops also decreased, and by the end of the year, it became smaller than the share of those who would be willing to support such a decision. However, all this has led not to an increase in the number of people who oppose the war, but rather to the expansion of a zone of blurred and alienated attitudes toward it. 24.01 Polls Expertise Between 'Spiral of Silence' and 'Jumping on the Bandwagon': The influence of others on Russians' opinion of the Russia-Ukraine war While, in Russia, opponents of the war are disinclined to voice their opinions when they think they believe they are surrounded by those who support it, those who declare their support for the war are disinclined to defend their loyalty when they find themselves in a mixed society where different views on the war are represented. 24.01 Review Chronicles of Devastation: Russian higher education is losing thousands of academics as a result of the war in Ukraine and a wave of obscurantism in Russia 22.01 Review Catching up with the Crisis: Will the sudden decrease in export revenues in December herald a new period of tension in Russian finances? 19.01 Analytics Optimists, Pessimists and Crisis Communities: How the world views the future at the start of the New Year and what we can learn from it Residents of developing and poorer countries, primarily in Southeast Asia and Latin America, demonstrate an extremely high level of optimism about the future, while those in prosperous Europe and developed countries are pessimistic. 18.01 Review Mutual Denial: Air defences block the use of aircraft on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and a similar situation may arise in the event of a clash between Russia and NATO, experts have warned 18.01 Review Beneficiaries of Reconfiguration: Instead of de-globalisation, the world awaits a change in the geography of trade and investment flows, which will strengthen the positions of a new group of developing countries 17.01 Analytics Off-Road Rally: How to meet the growing demand for political renewal in Ukraine when holding elections is impossible? How can you ensure democratic process in a country during a protracted war, when the ratings of incumbent politicians are declining and it is virtually impossible to hold legitimate elections? Experts advise Ukraine to return to reforms that were frozen following Russia’s invasion. 16.01 Review The Boom Has Reached Prices: The dramatic increase in investment in 2023 reflects higher prices for machinery and equipment rather than an increase in the volume of investment goods in physical terms 15.01 Sanctions Review Servant of Two Masters: Without the creation of a new and comprehensive export control system, sanctions are unable to stop the rearmament of the Russian army using Western components 15.01 Review Supercycle Stress: In 2024, elections will take place in 70 countries, but their results may be bad for democracy 12.01 Review Nothing Good: The past four years have taught everyone to assess Russia’s economic prospects with restrained pessimism — everyone except Putin 11.01 Analytics The Triumph of Herostratus: How Russia lost the energy war and permanently forfeited its leading position in the global gas market Russia has lost the energy war that the Kremlin had pinned high hopes on on the eve of the invasion of Ukraine. Europe has successfully restructured its energy market, largely substituting Russian gas, prices have fallen, and Gazprom, once the flagship of the Russian economy, has found itself trapped by its 'energy weapon' in Putin's geopolitical trap. 11.01 Review Phantom Talks: The main challenge is to convince Putin of their necessity, not Zelensky, say experts 10.01 Repressions Analytics Mechanism of Organised Espionage: In 2023, the FSB accused more than 100 people of treason Since the beginning of the war, the number of treason cases in Russia has increased about tenfold, including by blurring the very concept of treason in the law. The behaviour of the investigators and courts suggests that the logic of this state spymania is subordinated to the tasks of bureaucratic accountability — the plan to catch 'spies' and 'defectors', which has increased by an order of magnitude in wartime conditions. 09.01 Expertise Reaping War: The Russian orthodox church and the Russian invasion of Ukraine Nikolai Mitrokhin Public perception identifies the position of the Russian Orthodox Church with the pro-war statements of Patriarch Kirill, but in reality the position of most of its clergy is determined by a compromise between loyalty to the Kremlin and commitment to the institutional interests of the church. It remains the largest public organisation in a number of post-Soviet countries, demonstrating a similar spectrum of attitudes towards the war as exists in society as a whole. 31.12.23 Discussion Four Myths about Russia: Why not to view Russia through Vladimir Putins's eyes Kirill Rogov The historical fatalism of the Russian opposition sometimes seems like a mirror image of Putinist mythology. Was the post-Soviet era a lost thirty years in the history of Russia? Is imperial expansion inherent to Russian political thinking? Could things have unfolded differently in the 1990s? And, is it true that something will only be possible 'post-Putin'? 28.12.23 Analytics A Tricky Figure: Why the year’s economic results are much worse than the Russian authorities are trying to portray The Russian economy is rapidly 'Sovietising', manifested both in its increased dependence on budgetary injections and in the creation of a system of 'patches' - institutions of manual and emergency management that substitute for market-based mechanisms. Moving onto this trajectory raises the probability of another transformational crisis. 26.12.23 Analytics 'Strategic patience' for the West and Ukraine: Is Kyiv's defeat a foregone conclusion? In addition to Ukraine's defeat, which looks particularly likely if there is a further reduction in Western aid, experts are pondering several scenarios for the development of events in 2024: an inert continuation of the confrontation, an attempt to freeze the conflict and a scenario of 'strategic patience'. 22.12.23 Review Dark Times: Is the world heading towards global conflict or just a new Cold War? 22.12.23 Review Price Dance: What is causing inflation, what dangers does it pose, and how will the inflationary wave in the Russian economy end? 21.12.23 Review Balance of (in)stability: The US must exert pressure on the Putin regime’s areas of vulnerability in order to strategically weaken it 21.12.23 EU Review Accession Movement: The issue of Ukraine's accession to the EU exposes the fault lines between different groups of countries within the European community 20.12.23 Review Anomalous dependence: The rapid yuanisation of the Russian economy highlights its vulnerability and does not shield it from risks 19.12.23 Review The Worst is Near: A Russian victory over Ukraine would lead to a complete overhaul of European security, and it would cost significantly more than the military aid Kyiv needs 19.12.23 EU Review United but divisible: Europeans generally agree on the need for military aid for Ukraine and increased spending on European security, but to varying degrees 19.12.23 Review Sanctions Laundromat: Experts warn that the infrastructure created for money laundering is also being used to evade sanctions 18.12.23 Expertise The Anti-crisis Trap: How crisis management creates an economy of permanent crisis Alexandra Prokopenko The high frequency of economic crises has shaped a unique type of anti-crisis economic policy in Russia: 'overcoming' each crisis involves freezing its consequences and factors of inefficiency. As a result, there is extremely slow growth during inter-crisis periods, which are becoming shorter and shorter. This model not only deprives the economy of incentives for development but also increases the probability of new crises, reducing their cost for the country's leadership. 15.12.23 Review The 'Victory Budget' May Get Hit by the Electric Car: Oil prices are increasingly at odds with the government's optimistic forecasts 15.12.23 Analytics Perestroika Again: Why rapid investment growth is another deceptive signal from the Russian economy The growth of investment in Russia by the end of 2023 will be at its highest level for the past 12 years. However, like the unexpectedly high economic growth rates in the midst of war and sanctions, these figures do not indicate the economy's development. Sectoral analysis of the economy’s investment structure shows that the investment boom in 2023 is serving not so much the growth of the economy as its structural reorganisation. 14.12.23 Review Mapping Violence: Beyond the war in Ukraine, armed conflicts and confrontations worldwide claim the lives of over 100,000 people each year 14.12.23 EU Review The Weakness of the Strong: Europe has proven to be unprepared for the dual challenge of Russia's prolonged investment in the war and a potential reduction in US involvement in ensuring European security 13.12.23 Repressions Review Unfriendly Status: Expanding the scope of the 'foreign agent' label and its related restrictions, the Russian authorities are looking for a reliable bridge to criminalise those with this status 12.12.23 Review Routine Catastrophe: If the American and European aid packages are not adopted soon, Ukraine is likely to suffer a military defeat as early as next year 12.12.23 Polls Review The Waiting Game: Russians remain loyal to the regime and the war, but the number of people who want it to end as soon as possible has grown significantly in recent months 11.12.23 Review Relocation innovation: The transfer of independent journalism beyond Russia’s borders is unprecedented, but the immediate prospects and opportunities for influencing Russian media in exile are not yet clear 08.12.23 Sanctions Review Prices below the cap: The year that the mechanism to limit Russian oil prices has been in operation has shown its ineffectiveness in its current form 08.12.23 Review Human Exhaustion: The depletion of the ‘rally around the flag’ effect is forcing Ukrainian commanders to seek a commercially viable contract model to replenish its troops 06.12.23 Review Winter is Coming: Public mood in Ukraine as winter approaches 06.12.23 USA Analytics North Atlantic Shuffle: How the American partisan debate on foreign policy could change the United States and Europe As we approach the presidential election, strategic uncertainty about the future of US foreign policy is growing. In America, a heated debate is unfolding, while Europe is being forced to rethink seemingly immutable ideas about its security and foreign policy strategies. 05.12.23 Repressions Review Three Periods of Repression: More than a thousand people in Russia are in prison for political reasons 05.12.23 Review Record Underemployment: Ultra-low unemployment in Russia indicates imbalances in the labour market rather than growth in employment and economic activity 01.12.23 Analytics Counter War of Attrition: The West must develop a long-term strategy to counter Russian aggression in Ukraine The failure of the counteroffensive has sowed confusion among Ukraine's allies, and now the West needs to formulate a long-term and realistic strategy to aid Kyiv. The mere existence of this strategy will have a sobering effect on the Kremlin and upset its calculations for a quick 'handover' of Ukraine by its Western partners. 30.11.23 Review Adaptive Millions: Why the unprecedented influx of Ukrainian refugees into Europe has not caused a social and political crisis 30.11.23 Sanctions Review Dancing around Sanctions: The EU is finding it increasingly difficult to impose new restrictions as the old ones are not working 29.11.23 Analytics Anti-War Patriotizm: how the protest movement of the families of mobilised people is developing and why it is important November saw the dramatic intensification of the movement of mothers and wives of the mobilised, demanding the return home of those who were drafted in the autumn of 2022. The movement does not yet appear to be a mass movement, but the anti-war narrative emerging from within it, which operates with values of justice and patriotism and distances itself from the usual liberal rhetoric, may be in demand. 28.11.23 Repressions Review Frozen Protest: The number of public demonstrations against the war is continuing to decline, but a movement made up of the relatives of mobilised people is gaining weight and the number of deserters is growing 27.11.23 Review Non-market Undercooling: Despite the Central Bank's key rate hike, the economy is being generously supported by budget funds and remains overheated 24.11.23 USA Review The Palestinian Issue Has Aged Biden: The war in Gaza is demobilising his potential young voters 24.11.23 Review Waiting for War: NATO and Europe have between five and nine years to prepare for a major military conflict, and the less prepared they are, the more likely it is to happen 23.11.23 China Review Tractors vs Tanks: Record volumes of Chinese imports have helped Russia repel the Ukrainian counteroffensive 22.11.23 Propaganda Review Trolls, Elves and Other Public Sector Workers: The Russian authorities are developing a post-Prigozhin system of astroturfing, while the opposition is trying to oppose them with the same methods 22.11.23 Review Subsidiary competition: India benefits from the US-China confrontation, while Russia becomes its resource appendage 21.11.23 Review Crisis genre: The Russian economy is able to recover successfully from crises, but sees almost no growth in the long term 20.11.23 War Review Competitive Contracts for 'Meat Grinder’ Assaults: The Russian command believes that the capture of Avdiivka will have a great psychological effect and is therefore worth any losses 20.11.23 Propaganda Review Splitting the Truth: In the current conflict in Gaza, the information war is play as much, if not more, of a role than events on the battlefield 16.11.23 Polls Review Anti-War Drift: Loyalty to the war is being eroded among the young and economically Disadvantaged 15.11.23 Review Rising oil production outside OPEC+ is challenging Saudi Arabia and Russia’s attempts to manipulate prices 14.11.23 Review Weak strong regime: Putin's regime has largely been able to mitigate the crisis associated with the miscalculations of the first year of the war in Ukraine 14.11.23 China Review Dead-end u-turn: Russia's pivot towards the East has fallen into a trap of non-competitiveness, transforming it into a raw material province of China 13.11.23 Review Downward Slide: The Russian Central Bank warns that measures to support the ruble will not be enough if lending and budget expenditures are not curbed 13.11.23 Analytics The Lonely Gas Station: Why the Putin era has doomed Russia for economic failure Sergey Aleksashenko Vladimir Putin's claims that Russia is no longer a 'gas station' and is moving towards economic 'self-sufficiency' have no basis in reality. The level of technological complexity of Russia's exports has only declined over the past twenty years. Under these conditions, 'self-sufficiency' is only attainable through the preservation of an unmodernised technological framework. 10.11.23 Review Lost Africa: Western influence and credibility are plummeting in the region amid the rise of new players 10.11.23 Analytics Neurotic Realism: Is a Third World War possible, and what should be done to prevent it? The Russian invasion of Ukraine, the violent conflict in the Middle East, and, most importantly, the escalating rivalry between China and the United States have significantly increased the likelihood of a new world war, and the questions in the headline no longer seem like idle fantasy. But who starts wars? How, and why do they begin, and what can be done to prevent them? 10.11.23 Review (In)stability Factor: Subsidised mortgages in Russia are gradually feeling the squeeze 09.11.23 Review Sanctions Incentives: The West may introduces economic incentives for those who join sanctions 07.11.23 Review The War and Labour Market: the number of legal migrant workers in Russia decreased during the first half of 2023, despite a severe labour shortage 07.11.23 USA Review Traces of Trumpism: The Ukrainian counteroffensive's failures is evident within the US election battle and may weaken American support for Ukraine 06.11.23 Review Frontline Equilibrium: The Russian authorities have managed to avoid a second wave of mobilisation by offering new contract terms attractive to certain social strata 03.11.23 Review Euromaidan in lieu of Eurointegration? The pro-Russian leanings of the Georgian authorities may become a source of intense conflict surrounding the parliamentary elections in Georgia next year 03.11.23 Polls Review ‘Withdraw the troops and return the territories': A Levada Center poll indicates that, in Russia, this formula for peace is predominantly opposed by pensioners and television viewers 02.11.23 Review Defending the South: The US must give Seoul stronger security guarantees to deter it from developing its own nuclear weapons 02.11.23 Analytics Transformation of Identities: The war has reshaped Ukrainian political geography, but the issues at its core remain unchanged Russian military aggression has prompted a reevaluation of traditional Ukrainian political-geographical identities and to the disappearance of political parties and platforms that once represented the Russian-speaking residents of the southeast. However, solidarity in the face of the enemy does not mean that residents of the southeast have accepted the concept of linguistic and cultural Ukrainian homogeneity. 01.11.23 Review Disrupted Seasonality: Russian industry is stuck between stagnation and growth, but the worst is yet to come 01.11.23 Review Dancing on the 'Red Lines': The US has not yet found a strategic response to the Kremlin's nuclear blackmail, raising the likelihood of future threats 31.10.23 Middle East Review Sovietisation of Consciousness: Nearly half of Russians believe that the US and NATO are to blame for the Palestine-Israel conflict 30.10.23 Sanctions Review A Hollow Ceiling and a Rusty Fleet: Russian oil sales and the price cap problems 27.10.23 Middle East Analytics From Aggressors to Peacekeepers: The Hamas attack has dealt a serious blow to the global anti-Putin cause The conflict in Israel appears to be another episode in the 'wave of revisionism' that is increasingly gripping the world, calling into question the existing world order and the established balance of power, thus strengthening the revisionist discourse of Russia and China. These two nations are jointly challenging the role of the West in upholding this order. 26.10.23 Review The Vicious Digital Circle: Authoritarian governments have managed to impose a ‘race to the limit’ of Internet freedom restrictions, and artificial intelligence will only make things worse 26.10.23 Repressions Review Dictatorship's Routine: The number of convictions and new cases against disloyal individuals is declining, but repression remains high 25.10.23 USA Review The Fatigue Myth: Claims of reduced support for Ukraine in the US are not substantiated by the polls 24.10.23 Propaganda Review Global Rumour Mill: Pro-Russian narratives in Central and Eastern Europe focus on Ukrainian ‘Nazism’ and the demonisation of Zelensky 24.10.23 Middle East Review The Gaza Effect: The economic ramifications of the new war in the Middle East will determine the course of ground operations and the response of neighbouring states 20.10.23 Analytics Fighting Exhaustion: Cracks in Ukrainian public opinion will demand new strategies from the country’s political leadership A 'war of attrition' implies the depletion not only of human and military resources but also of the mobilisation potential of society. The Ukrainian public still shows a strong determination to fight for victory and is stoically enduring economic hardship; however, according to the polls, there is an increasingly notable trend towards fatigue within Ukrainian society. 19.10.23 Review Russian Samovar: In the new economic and fiscal environment, the Central Bank is failing to cool down the economy using conventional methods 19.10.23 Discussion Second Chance Opposition: Can the Russian opposition community abroad influence what is happening in Russia? Alexander Morozov Russian anti-war emigres have yet to be able to create their own political representation — political structures that could declare themselves an alternative to the current course of the Kremlin. What does the Russian opposition community represent today? What is happening to it? What factors determine its strengths and weaknesses? What might its future look like, and when and how might this community be able to influence events in Russia? 18.10.23 Review The Gas Gap: The threat of a difficult winter is looming over Europe while Russia’s share of the global gas market is shrinking fast 18.10.23 USA Review On Two Nuclear Fronts: New US strategic doctrine envisages the possibility of waging war simultaneously with Russia and China 17.10.23 Review Search Queries: Russians are waiting for the return of the mobilised and are increasingly interested in the possibility of peace talks, according to Yandex statistics 17.10.23 EU Review Elections in Poland and the Unseen Eastern European Battlefront: Public opinion in the region is the weakest link in the chain of ‘European unity’ 16.10.23 Review Military-Oil Solitaire: The crisis in the Middle East could drive up oil prices, providing Russia with additional funds to wage its war in Ukraine 13.10.23 Review The Philosophy of 'Middle Powers': Why the new world order will not resemble the Cold War and Russia will not benefit from multipolarity 13.10.23 Review The Post-COVID-War Syndrome: inflation and geopolitics weigh heavy on the global economy 12.10.23 Ideologies Discussion Why Putinism Is (Still) Not An Ideology Nikita Savin Ideologies usually create a kind of political map that can be used to understand where political processes are heading. However, Putin has long and successfully avoided ideological clarity, which has enabled him to maintain a certain political intrigue around his key decisions. This characteristic of the regime persists today: the Kremlin can neither explain the reasons and goals of its war in Ukraine nor ensure ideological mobilisation in support of it. 12.10.23 Polls Review Military Burnout: Attention to the fighting in Ukraine and the level of patriotic feeling have hit their lowest levels since the start of the war 11.10.23 USA Review Nuclear Dilemma: The United States grapples with a growing global threat 10.10.23 Review Radical Deglobalisation: The IMF has built a model of the world economy divided into two warring blocs 10.10.23 Review Contact Combat: How the authorities are attempting to turn VK into a tool of total control comparable to China’s WeChat 10.10.23 Ideologies Discussion Does the Putin regime have an ideology? Maria Snegova, Michael Kimmage, Jade McGlynn The ideology of the Putin regime is resilient because it responds to the existing demands of the population, draws on deeply rooted Soviet traditions, and at the same time fills the ideological void that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This will help to sustain the Putin regime for many years to come. 09.10.23 Review Perplexed Patriots: The war in Ukraine has lead to further fragmentation of the Russian nationalist front 06.10.23 Analytics Artsakh, The End of an Era: The geopolitics of the Karabakh crisis Twenty years ago, the exodus of the Armenian population from Karabakh would have seemed unthinkable and fantastical. Yet, its occurrence is the result of tectonic shifts and a fundamental rebalancing of power, both regionally and globally. 05.10.23 Review Inertia of Overheating: The slowdown in Russian industry has begun, but will only reach its peak in late autumn 04.10.23 Review From Gas to Electricity: The new energy sector may be no less vulnerable to geopolitical risks 04.10.23 Analytics 5 Plus 1, Minus Russia: The countries of Central Asia are seeking to forge a collective identity on the 'Grand Chessboard’ Since the onset of the war in Ukraine, the five post-Soviet countries in Central Asia have been actively shaping a new framework for their foreign policy positioning and international agency. These efforts offer glimpses into the alliances and configurations emerging in the post-Soviet space in an era where its Russia-centric focus is finally becoming a thing of the past. 03.10.23 EU Review A Headache for the EU: Ukraine's accession to the European Union will demand serious reforms both in Ukraine and in the Union itself 03.10.23 Ideologies Review Monumental Re-Stalinisation: Russia is systematically demolishing the monuments to victims of repression, while erecting dozens of monuments to Stalin 02.10.23 Review A War of Nerves and Words: Although Russia has toned down its rhetoric, the West must remain ready for potential escalation 02.10.23 Review Military Hybrid: The paradigm of Russian economic policy has shifted and is likely to remain changed even after the end of the war 29.09.23 Review More than $300 Million a Day: How much does the war in Ukraine cost and what does it mean for the Russian economy? 29.09.23 Repressions Review The Magnetism of Fear: As the scale of repression begins to stabilise, the space for freedom available to Russian citizens continues to shrink 28.09.23 Review A Story of War and Peace in Russian Demography: The demographic trend is showing signs of improvement, but the shocks of war and emigration are not yet evident in the statistics 28.09.23 Discussion In Memoriam: Yasin's Legacy of Freedom Today in Moscow, a farewell is being bid to a prominent figure in the Russian political landscape of recent decades, Evgeny Yasin. Mr. Yasin served as the Minister of Economics during the era of reforms, was the founder and leader of the Higher School of Economics, and presided over the independent "Liberal Mission" Foundation. On the Re: Russia platform, notable figures such as Sergei Aleksashenko, Evgenia Albats, Sergei Guriev, Igor Klyamkin, Lev Gudkov, Konstantin Sonin, and others are paying their respects to Mr. Yasin. 27.09.23 Sanctions Review Bad Weapons for the Poor and the Unfortunate: Russia is irreversibly losing its place in the middle-tech arms markets but may still maintain its position as a supplier to impoverished and isolated nations 27.09.23 Propaganda Review Undercurrents in a Sea of Podcasts: Can podcasts influence American public opinion on Russia and Ukraine? 26.09.23 Review School Diktat: Do Russians support the ideologisation of history education in schools? 25.09.23 Review Reversal of Globalisation: The war in Ukraine has boosted global economic fragmentation 25.09.23 War Review Graveyard Monitoring: The intensity of Russian military casualties in Ukraine has decreased in recent months 22.09.23 War Analytics Monument to a Deserter: What do we know about desertion in the Russian army and will there be more defectors? Alexander Finiarel Desertion by Russian servicemen has not yet become a widespread issue, as sometimes happens during protracted conflicts. However, given that the Kremlin has decided not to rotate mobilised troops, the dynamics of desertion may change significantly during the second year of the war. What factors will influence desertion in the Russian army? 22.09.23 Review Free Cheese Melts Into A Mousetrap: the economic euphoria of the beginning of the year has turned into an inflationary spike and will provoke a sharp slowdown in production 21.09.23 War Analytics Second Front: Who Will Win The First Drone War? The widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, has fundamentally transformed the nature of modern warfare. Drones have become a tool of resistance, levelling the playing field and neutralising the advantages of stronger adversaries. The ongoing race of drone innovation and ingenuity in their application will undoubtedly remain one of the central storylines of the Russia-Ukraine war. 21.09.23 Sanctions Review Naked Goliath: Russia's defence industry has failed to solve the shortage of imported components as equipment and weapons reserves are being depleted 20.09.23 Review Demand Comes and Goes: The intensive growth of consumption in Russia will soon be replaced by stagnation, or even contraction 20.09.23 Expertise Outside and Inside: What The Experience of Russia’s Exiled Opposition Teaches and Does Not Teach Us Mikhail Turchenko A large number of activists, journalists and human rights defenders have left Russia since the war began, but in the past year and a half they have failed to create institutions that could represent the Russian opposition abroad and serve as the voice of the Russian democratic movement. How unique is this situation? What is the experience of other opposition diasporas that have left their countries due to domestic repression? What can such opposition achieve from abroad? 19.09.23 Propaganda Review 'US Intelligence Is Planning to Assassinate Zelensky': Pro-Russian disinformation in Central Europe in August 2023 18.09.23 EU Review Three Europes: There are varying levels of support for Ukraine across the EU 18.09.23 Review Alliance of 'Nuclear Pariahs': Collaboration between Russia, Iran, and North Korea leads to further erosion of the sanctions regime 14.09.23 Review Oil to the Rescue: Saudi Arabia is Russia's key ally in its war in Ukraine 13.09.23 Review War of Budgets: Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted Europe to rearm 13.09.23 Review The Coup Belt: Escalating ‘great’ and ‘middle power rivalries fuel revolutions in Africa 12.09.23 Review The East is a Long Way Off: Russian exporters have shifted their focus from the EU to Asia, albeit at the cost of volumes and margins 11.09.23 War Review Battle of The Reserves: Experts believe Ukraine is more effective than Russia in a war of attrition 11.09.23 Review Wage stagnation: Relocation and mobilisation have undermined the effect of stimulative economic policies 08.09.23 Review Deceived expectations: Russian elites between nationalism and Putinism in polls over two decades 08.09.23 Review In a 'trade-driven transformation', Germany remains reluctant to sever ties with Russia 07.09.23 Polls Review Peace without Concessions: Surveys show that most Russians want an end to the war but are not ready to give up what they have won 07.09.23 Analytics The Zone of Electoral Silence. The key features of the 2023 regional elections Stanislav Andreychuk The main features of the 2023 election campaign, in addition to unprecedented legislative and coercive pressure on the electoral process, has been the active implementation of an electronic voting system fully controlled by the security services and a noticeable decline in interest from politicians and businesses who fear the authorities' use of force. 06.09.23 Review Recovery Bubble: Budget and credit activities are pushing the economy beyond its potential 06.09.23 Review Ukrainian Resilience: Fatigue and frustration are on the rise, but the will to resist remains strong, polls show 05.09.23 War Review Who Will Win the War of Attrition? Analysts say that Ukraine has a chance of success if it adjusts its tactics properly 05.09.23 USA Review War in the Shadow of Elections: If Trump's rhetoric manages to persuade non-partisan voters, the Biden administration will likely be forced to scale back its assistance to Ukraine 04.09.23 Repressions Review Putin's Conveyor Belt: The new practice of bringing treason charges may bring repression to a whole new level 04.09.23 Analytics Will The New Reality Become The New Order? What the expansion of BRICS means for the world and for Russia As a result of its expansion, BRICS is finally taking on the characteristics of a real organisation rather than just a casual club, positioning itself as a political and economic representative of the Global South. However, the ideas of the accelerated consolidation of BRICS+ as both an anti-Western coalition and the foundation for a 'new world order' are unlikely to come to fruition. In fact, they are more likely to undermine the prospects of the union rather than enhance them. 04.09.23 Review Pre-Election Standstill with a Plus Sign: Recovery growth has been hit by structural constraints 01.08.23 Analytics Season Finale: Highlights, Trends, and Challenges In August, the activity of analytical and expert centres typically declines, and Re:Russia's analytical review usually goes on vacation until the beginning of September. As we bid farewell to our readers for this month, we would like to remind you of the topics covered in our recent reviews and the themes discussed by our experts that may remain relevant in the upcoming season. 31.07.23 Review Putin's Last Chance: Europe has minimised its dependency on Russian gas, but the Kremlin still has room for blackmail 31.07.23 Propaganda Review Intensive Normalisation: Russian propaganda is aimed not at mobilising citizens, but at forcing ritual loyalty 28.07.23 Review Escape from War: New data puts the number of Russians who have left at more than 800,000 people 28.07.23 Review Halal or haram? The war in Ukraine is deepening the divide between 'official' and 'unofficial' Islam in the North Caucasus 27.07.23 Repressions Review Scope and Duration: Analysis of repression in Russia reveals that although the overall magnitude of these actions has not significantly increased, their severity has heightened over time 26.07.23 Review As an inevitable economic slowdown approaches, enterprises are adjusting their expectations, leading to a moderation in the business climate 25.07.23 Review Nuclear Numbness: In the thirty years since the end of the Cold War, perceptions of the nuclear threat have dulled considerably in both Russia and the United States 25.07.23 Expertise Between De- and Hyper-Politisation: The evolution of Russian authoritarianism Natalya Savelieva, Kirill Rogov Over the past two decades, the Russian political regime has evolved through three distinct phases. Initially, during the 2000s, it embraced a depoliticised authoritarianism that focused on economic efficiency and imposed selective constraints on political liberties. In the following decade, the regime encountered a gradual resurgence of political awareness within society, prompting it to adopt a counter-politicisation strategy in response. However, as these measures proved inadequate in the 2020s, the regime turned to external aggression and intense politicisation, resulting in a radical transformation of both the regime itself and of broader society. 24.07.23 Review Inverted Sentiment: Russians’ social well-being is influenced by their political leanings 21.07.23 Review Keeping under the Price Cap: Sanctions against oil have hit the Russian budget but are still allowing for the accumulation of shadow reserves abroad 21.07.23 Expertise Between mobilisation and tolerance lies the evolving nature of Ukrainian attitudes toward peace-minded Russians In late 2022, surveys indicated that most Ukrainians were hesitant to engage with Russian citizens, regardless of their views on the ongoing war. However, as of today, there is a growing agreement within Ukrainian society about the potential for cooperation with peace-oriented ‘ordinary’ Russians. There is now an unstable majority in favour of dialogue with the Russian leadership in the event that Russia sees a change of power and policy. Nevertheless, few currently believe that such a turn of events is possible. 20.07.23 China Review Proxy War Dynamics: China sees Russia more as an agent of its own confrontation with the US than as an ally or partner 20.07.23 Review Electoral Control Show: How the Kremlin is preparing for the 2023-2024 election cycle in the midst of war 19.07.23 War Review Death Toll: The number of Russian soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine is likely in the range of 50,000-65,000 individuals 19.07.23 Review Demand Overheating: Central Bank plans to cool the economy with a rate hike to prevent inflation from accelerating ahead of elections 18.07.23 Polls Review Militarists, the semi-war party, and the semi-peace party: sociological data allow us to identify the main groups in attitudes towards war in Russian society 18.07.23 China Review Island vs. Mainland: Experts examine Taiwan's ability to resist a Chinese invasion 17.07.23 Review Media Optimists: Consumer confidence index has peaked due to Russians’ confidence in the favourable prospects of the national economy 17.07.23 Review Transport Loop: Russia has successfully reoriented its logistics from west to east, defying economic logic 14.07.23 Review Reversing Nuclear Disarmament: The war in Ukraine has provoked a new nuclear arms race and eroded trust and communication among nuclear powers 14.07.23 Future Analytics From Gorbachev to Stalin: Four scenarios for Russia according to analysts from Atlantic Council, plus one from RE: RUSSIA The Prigozhin rebellion is now claiming the role of a 'black swan' or trigger event — an occurrence that seemed entirely improbable and, now that it has happened, is forcing observers to reassess their understanding of the domestic political situation in Russia and, as such, their notions of what might happen in the future. 14.07.23 Review Rebellious Rate: The sharp weakening of the ruble has exposed the fundamental instability of the economy and may slow its recovery 12.07.23 Review Sovereign Drilling: Restricting access to Western technology may not affect the oil industry as much as previously thought 12.07.23 EU Review Losing The Energy War: A pan-European Survey shows significant improvement in the economic outlook, consolidated support for Ukraine and increased defence Spending 11.07.23 Review Good, bad, evil: Vladimir Putin is not trusted anywhere in the world except India, while Volodymir Zelensky's image 'is not so clear' 11.07.23 Analytics Accepting the inevitable: The four dilemmas of Ukraine's NATO membership that are impossible but necessary to resolve Although today's NATO summit will not lead to a breakthrough for Ukraine's membership in the alliance, its outcomes do not appear entirely predetermined. In political terms, the results of the summit are likely to disappoint Ukraine and those advocating for its swift accession to the alliance. However, in practical terms, they may lay the groundwork for the actual integration of Ukraine and NATO in the future. 10.07.23 War Review 500 Days of the New Old War: The protracted military conflict in Ukraine has upended notions of modern warfare, but has not changed its essence 10.07.23 Review Cracks in Public Opinion: Sustaining a high level of cohesion within Ukrainian society is becoming increasingly challenging amidst the protracted war and occupation of parts of the country’s territory 07.07.23 Review Military-oil stimulus: Russian industry continues to recover thanks to unprecedented government spending 06.07.23 Repressions Review Framing Public Violence: the proliferation of public apologies indicates a normalisation of physical violence towards dissenters 06.07.23 Prigozhin Analytics INFORMATION UPRISING: PRIGOZHIN'S REVOLT IS THE RESULT OF FUNDAMENTAL SHIFTS IN THE RUSSIAN MEDIA LANDSCAPE The alternative pro-war agenda deployed in a number of Telegram channels has become the ideological platform of the Prigozhin rebellion and the reason behind its fairly widespread popularity. However, this effect reflects a more fundamental shift — the continuing decline in the influence of television in the Russian information space. 05.07.23 Analytics NO, BUT YES: WHY RUSSIA IS GOING TO EXTEND THE GRAIN DEAL Despite all the loud proclamations coming from Russia, the 'grain deal' is likely to be extended in one form or another on July 18. Rejection of the deal would almost inevitably lead to an increase in food prices, for which the world would blame Moscow. This, in turn, would undermine trust in the anti-colonial rhetoric it employs in Africa and Asia.  05.07.23 Prigozhin Review Aftertaste of Rebellion: The level of support for Prigozhin is estimated to be at least 20% after the rebellion, but it could potentially be significantly higher 04.07.23 Review Alliance or union? The West is spending significantly less on assistance to Kyiv than it did on its allies in previous military conflicts 04.07.23 Ideologies Review The War of Patriotism: Russia's extensive campaign of school militarism is designed to suppress the modern attitudes of Russian youth 03.07.23 Polls Review Rebellion and Peace: The share of those who believe it is time to move to peace talks with Ukraine has increased, while a significant part of society sympathises with the Prigozhin uprising 30.06.23 Prigozhin Analytics Hot Summer In Snowy Africa: Why the Prigozhin uprising was possible, how it ended, and what it revealed Kirill Rogov The Prigozhin rebellion has shaken the Russian political landscape, dealing a deadly blow to the myth of 'Putin's stability.' At the same time, the rebellion itself — its brevity and sudden end — has left observers puzzled. But what do we really know about military rebellions and their role in political history?  30.06.23 Sanctions Review Southern Corridor: The West is struggling to disrupt the supply of electronics to Russia, with investigators uncovering new schemes and channels for such deliveries 29.06.23 Polls Review Loyal but weary: A new poll indicates a gradual erosion of the dominant pro-war rhetoric in the public sphere 29.06.23 Sanctions Review Sanctions Counteroffensive: Even a partial restriction of the 'grey' import of microelectronics to Russia could shift the balance of power on the battlefield 28.06.23 China Review Chinese Boomerang: If Beijing attacks Taiwan, sanctions against China will have catastrophic consequences not only for China but also for the West and the entire world 27.06.23 Review Best of the Worst: Russian entrepreneurs’ optimism reflects their social attitudes rather than the realities of the business climate 27.06.23 Prigozhin Analytics War and Revolt: How are the outcome of the Wagner rebellion and the prospects of the Ukrainian counteroffensive connected? The conciliatory outcome of the recent Wagner mutiny is deeply humiliating for Putin, but it may allow him to maintain both his support for the current leadership of the Ministry of Defence, which ensures defence capabilities today, and the Wagner Group units, which could be necessary in the future, or may even create new threats for Ukraine during the summer-autumn military campaign. 26.06.23 Repressions Review Totalitarian Putinism: Amid the successful suppression of protests against the war, Russian authorities are increasingly expanding the use of totalitarian practices to combat dissent 24.06.23 Prigozhin Analytics The Armed Golem: Mutiny that Putin Has Started Kirill Rogov Although the focus is now on the advance of Wagner Military group’s units toward Moscow, the essence of Evgeny Prigozhin's rebellion is unfolding in the rhetorical space. This rebellion has already dealt a crushing blow to Putin's war, because it is expressed not in the language of the liberal opponents of the war, but that of its supporters. 23.06.23 Review Sky-high Optimism with Uncertain Prospects: Russian business climate index remains at decade-high levels for no particular reason 23.06.23 Future Review Paths for the Future: Possible scenarios for to a long-ruling autocrat who unleashes war 22.06.23 Review The Great Reconstruction: RAND Corporation outlines a Marshall Plan for Ukraine 21.06.23 Review Dwindling Philanthropy: Russian donations have decreased in scale, but they still demonstrate a willingness to donate 20.06.23 Review From the Triumph of Ostpolitik to the Collapse of Russlandpolitik: How Germany is saying goodbye to its former strategy towards Russia and what will replace it, an article by Alex Yusupov for Re: Russia 20.06.23 Expertise From Triumph to Collapse: How Germany is parting with Ostpolitik and what comes next Alex Yusupov Over the past fifty years 'Ostpolitik', Germany's 'eastern policy', formed an integral part of German identity, and the idea of a special relationship with Russia became a key element of Germany's global political and economic positioning. The invasion of Ukraine marked the collapse of 'Ostpolitik', which is understood as the collapse of the entire German foreign policy of previous decades. Germany's political system, which resembles a super-heavy oil tanker, is now forced to perform an abrupt pivot. 19.06.23 USA Review Uncertain America: the number of Americans who think aid to Ukraine is excessive has almost stopped growing, but debates about the scale and purpose of this assistance will continue 19.06.23 Review Oil Peak' Nears as Russia's Market Share Decreases 16.06.23 EU Review Threat to Germany: The soaring popularity of the German far-right poses a new challenge for the European coalition supporting Ukraine 16.06.23 Sanctions Review Import Substitution: Most Russian companies will be unable to abandon foreign equipment or raw materials in the near future 15.06.23 Polls Review Between China and Belarus: The war has changed Russians' perception of their friends and enemies, but the new picture of geopolitical solidarity appears artificial and circumstantial 15.06.23 China Review The China Question': While Europe's stance towards Russia has been defined, there remains uncertainty regarding China 14.06.23 EU Review Berlin's Zeitenwende: Germany has adopted its first National Security Concept, and experts advise preparing for worst-case scenarios with Russia 14.06.23 Sanctions Review Artisanal Digital Authoritarianism: Despite the remaining loopholes for circumventing sanctions, the Russian IT sector is doomed to degrade 13.06.23 Review Borders of Peace: Only 10% of Ukrainians are prepared to settle for 'peace in exchange for territory', but around 30% might consider a return to February 2022 demarcation lines, surveys show 13.06.23 Review Geography of the ‘Special Military’ Economy: Natalya Zubarevich discusses how war and sanctions have changed the Russian economy 13.06.23 Expertise Special Military Economic Geography: Changes in the Russian Economy by Region Natalya Zubarevich Looking at the dynamics of the Russian economy by region provides a multidimensional lens that reveals something that is not otherwise obvious from a sectoral analysis. The relatively good average figures conceal multidirectional dynamics, while the localisation of zones of abnormal growth and abnormal decline allows us to see past the optimistic figures of the Russian economy as a whole and to identify the process of structural transformation associated with its current anomalous conditions. 12.06.23 Review Better than worse: the World Bank predicts that the global economy will see accelerated growth by 2025, but Russia’s economy will not 09.06.23 Future Review The Cradle of Disintegration: Will the North Caucasus Once Again Become the Epicentre of Separatism in Russia? 09.06.23 Sanctions Review Slow Poison: Russia has failed to replace the imports of high-tech goods hit by direct sanctions 08.06.23 Polls Review After Bakhmut: The number of supporters of continuing the war increased in Russia in May, but so did uncertainty about the possibility of victory 07.06.23 War Review Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Soviet-inherited management style has the potential to hinder the accumulated advantages of the Ukrainian armed forces 05.06.23 Sanctions Review The Russian car market has taken a step back, reverting to the structure it had in the 2000s and potentially heading towards becoming more like China 05.06.23 Future Review If Not Putin, Then What: What could Russia be like after the war? 02.06.23 China Review Clay Alliance: Russia-China union may only persist long term if Moscow is pliable 02.06.23 Review Unreliable Unity: Despite support for Ukraine, residents of Central and Eastern Europe are highly sensitive to the issue of Ukrainian refugees and susceptible to anti-liberal narratives 01.06.23 Review Dangerous 'Losharik': critically important underwater infrastructure could become a proxy war target 01.06.23 Analytics From decline to overheating: Russian industry thrives amid military fever In Russia, industrial production and consumer activity are growing, but the growth of industry is primarily linked to defence orders, while consumer demand is not being met due to sanctions. As a result, the Russian economy is at risk of overheating, resulting in accelerating inflation. 31.05.23 Sanctions Review The West intends to continue its fight, threatening to inflict new problems on the Russian economy in the near future 31.05.23 Review Realpolitik's creed: Henry Kissinger explains how to prevent World War III and what steps the US should take when it comes to Ukraine, Russia and China. His advice will not please everyone 30.05.23 China Analytics Shifting Tides: How China is seizing the initiative in Central Asia and taking Russia’s place For post-Soviet Central Asia, Russia has served as a security guarantor for decades, but the war in Ukraine has rendered it a toxic neighbour. As in other areas, the main beneficiary of this shift has been China, which is eagerly exploiting the power vacuum created in the region as a consequence of Putin's obsession with Ukraine. 30.05.23 Review Upfront Optimism: Russia's business climate indicator has started to decline after an abnormal surge 29.05.23 Review Eurasian backslide: democracy has declined in former socialist countries for the 19th consecutive year 29.05.23 Review The repressive justice machine: jury trials are unable to influence the degradation of the Russian judiciary 26.05.23 Repressions Review Stalinism-lite: the scope of repression is widening and is increasingly accompanied by violence 26.05.23 Review Non-military defeat: the war in Ukraine has critically undermined Russia's position in the post-Soviet space, polls show 25.05.23 Review A Less-Than-Hard Line: RAND analysts discuss the potential for de-escalation in US-Russian relations after the end of the war in Ukraine 25.05.23 War Review Meatgrinder tactics: the Russian army is getting better at fighting, requiring the Western coalition to adjust its military aid to Kyiv 24.05.23 Polls Review Easter Eggs: Russia remains a country with low levels of religiosity, and Russians’ declarative orthodoxy is primarily associated with festive social rituals 24.05.23 Polls Review Russians are tired of Putin and would not mind seeing another person take his place, but the demand for democratisation remains relatively low 23.05.23 War Review Bloody Bakhmut: How have the past four months of battle for the city altered the picture of Russian military losses? 23.05.23 Review Russia's Shadow Fleet: How it works and will new sanctions be able to deal with it? 22.05.23 Review Blind Patriotism: Why and how russians tend to justify the war 22.05.23 Review Nuclear Census: Russia is haunted by its failures in nuclear weapons development but has succeeded in their more active political utilisation 19.05.23 Future Discussion The Disappearance Dilemma: Post-Putin Russia must begin before Putin leaves Kirill Rogov Hopes of a new future for Russia ‘after Putin’ may fail to materialise if the demand for change is not already in place before he leaves. However, the sceptics' view that Putinism will necessarily outlive Putin does not seem all too convincing either. They underestimate the potential for modernisation that has been accumulated by Russian society throughout the post-Soviet decades. 19.05.23 Review Polarising Pole: The melting Arctic has emerged as a new arena for geopolitical fragmentation 18.05.23 Sanctions Review Flight Against Sanctions: The government is aiming to commence aircraft fleet localisation by the late 2020s, while airlines are reducing their safety standards and resorting to cannibalisation 18.05.23 Review Old Sanctions Have Crumbled New Ones Are Needed: Russia is selling more oil, putting pressure on OPEC+ partners in Asia 17.05.23 Review Frustrations of Non-Resistance: The typical Russian both supports and does not support the war at the same time, but does not want to appear to oppose it 17.05.23 Review Russia’s Use of Gas as a Weapon Has Stalled: Europe is finding it easier than expected to turn away from Russian fuel 16.05.23 Review Export Deadlock: Gazprom will on be able to partially compensate for the the loss of European market by providing significant discounts 16.05.23 Review The Nuclear Blackmail Bloc: Nearly 30% of Russians think the possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine is justified, with just 15% uncertain about their response 15.05.23 Ideologies Analytics The Conservatism Clinch: Can Russia Become an Orthodox Iran? The Russian authorities are attempting to cultivate orthodox religiosity and conservative values, but they have failed to take into account that, in Russia, the popularity of these values has a limited range and a specific political profile. Contrary to the Kremlin's beliefs, the promotion of traditionalism as an official ideology may actually serve to reduce public support for the regime. 15.05.23 Review Accelerating Slowdown: The Russian economy is expected to grow at a slower rate, says Central Bank 12.05.23 Review In Russia, Telegram has become the primary Internet platform for young people, surpassing YouTube in reach and WhatsApp in average daily user time 11.05.23 Review Relocating to the Caucasus: the political profiles of the new Russian diasporas in Georgia and Armenia are markedly different 11.05.23 Analytics The Elephant and the Whale of Migration Policy: Who Needs the Issue of Migrant Crime and Why? In Russia, the struggle around the regulation and control of labour migration is a struggle between two logics: the economic lobby seeks to normalise and simplify registration and its associated processes for migrants, while the security forces are interested in maintaining their precarious position in Russian society. The classic trump card in this struggle has been the myth of migrant criminality. 10.05.23 Polls Review Anticipating the Counteroffensive: Public Opinion Surveys Suggest Concern and Unfocused Negativity about the War, but Not Even Electronic Summonses Have Provoked Outrage 10.05.23 Review Stagnation and Resilience: 2023 will pose significant challenges for Russia’s regional budgets, but the problems will be passed on to the federal budget 08.05.23 Prigozhin Analytics Failure to Deliver: What is Behind the Prigozhin Scandal and Chaos in the Russian Military Command? The cascade of failures on the battlefield has created a desire on the part of various factions of the Russian military leadership to shift responsibility to one another and provoked multilateral conflicts. For the time being, such conflicts are seen as beneficial and manageable in the Kremlin. However, if the situation deteriorates further, these conflicts could spiral out of control. 08.05.23 USA Review The Issue of Fatigue: In the upcoming presidential race, Republican ‘isolationists’ may exploit American public fatigue over the Russia-Ukraine war 05.05.23 Review The Beneficiaries of Non-Alignment: The West, Russia and China are competing for the favour of the most prominent neutral powers, Brazil and India, which the latter will not hesitate to take advantage of 05.05.23 China Review The Strategic Stranglehold: what Russia-China trade data tells us about the future of their relationship 03.05.23 Sanctions Analytics Schrödinger's Boycott: Why Have Western Companies Not Left Russia Properly? Many foreign companies pledged to leave the Russian market in the initial weeks after the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This process was very active at first, but then it clearly began to stall. Moreover, some of the companies that had seemed to have left without too much fuss have begun to return cautiously. 02.05.23 Sanctions Review How Sanctions Have Changed the Kremlin’s Strategy in Ukraine: according to experts, the Russian army’s weakness is no longer people but weapons 02.05.23 Review Multipolar Disapproval: Nations that have not joined sanctions do not necessarily support Russia's invasion of Ukraine 28.04.23 Review A Dangerous Union: the Moscow-Beijing rapprochement alarms the West, forcing a consolidation of public opinion 28.04.23 Sanctions Analytics Irrecoverable losses: how sanctions have hit Russia’s most competitive industries the hardest Although sanctions have not led to a complete collapse of the Russian economy, they have caused significant and irreversible damage. Industries which had once achieved significant success on the international market have suffered the most and have been pushed towards demodernisation. A striking example of this is the Russian timber industry, which has lost its foothold in the European market. 27.04.23 Review From High Mobilisation to a More Moderate Approach: Ukrainian public opinion remains consolidated but has grown more critical of the country's leadership 27.04.23 Prigozhin Review The New Insincerity: Prigozhin’s associates are receiving contracts to create a new media system to spread propaganda in the occupied territories 26.04.23 Analytics The Militarisation Slide: having the world’s third largest military budget does not make Russia stronger There has been a proliferation of conflict hotbeds around the world, and with this global military spending is growing. In Russia, military expenditure grew by at least 9% in 2022, making it the world's third-largest military spender. Usually, such spending is only sustainable in countries where the GDP and population are much larger than Russia's. 26.04.23 Sanctions Review The One-Sided Fence: American chips worth hundreds of millions of dollars are entering Russia via China, and there seems to be no way to prevent this 25.04.23 Repressions Review The Punitive Machine: prosecutions for anti-war attitudes continue to rise, with hundreds of people from increasingly diverse backgrounds already prosecuted 25.04.23 Review The Ageing of Runet: The number of older daily Internet users has increased markedly over the past year, while news aggregators have been losing popularity to Telegram 24.04.23 Review The Business Climate Index Reaches Ten-Year High: the economy is benefiting from record-breaking export revenues, just as it did in 2013 24.04.23 China Review Disarmament race: With help from Russia, China could achieve nuclear parity with the US 21.04.23 Repressions Analytics Terrorists, Incendiaries, and Saboteurs: How Law Enforcement Is Normalising the Logic of State Terror Analysis of criminal cases opened under various articles of the Russian Criminal Code for anti-war activities suggests that security officials are prone to add additional, more serious charges, up to and including terrorism and extremism, following the initial indictment. This allows the security forces to meet their performance indicators and to keep civilians in a state of fear. 21.04.23 EU Review Right vs Right: the ban on Ukrainian agricultural exports to Europe is aimed at preventing the fracturing of Europe’s left-right coalition in their support of Ukraine 20.04.23 Review Consumption Inertia: Russians are spending far less on durable goods than they could, an important feature of the current economic crisis 20.04.23 Review (In)visible Waves: Although the War May Not Be Evident in Labour Migration Statistics, Total Migration Turnover in 2022 was the Largest in Russian History 19.04.23 Review Negative Employment: low labour mobility is hampering the structural transformation of the economy and fueling inflation 19.04.23 Review A New Era: The NATO Summit in Vilnius will decide what steps the Alliance will take to adjust to a new era of strategic confrontation, with a focus on financing 18.04.23 Review ‘Putin’s Witnesses’ in Africa: why public support for Ukraine remains low among African countries 17.04.23 Prigozhin Analytics Putin Has No Other General Staff: What the Outcome of the Conflict between Gerasimov and Prigozhin Teaches Us About the Present and Future of the War in Ukraine The swift and decisive victory of Valery Gerasimov and his General Staff over Yevgeny Prygozhin and his ambitions, combined with its systematic strengthening of its position over the last few years, forces us to take a new look at the political role of the Russian military leadership in the current war and their potential influence on its future course and outcome. 17.04.23 Review Growing Locally: the Russian IT industry has managed to avoid crisis thanks to government import substitution measures 14.04.23 War Review A natural ally: Artificial intelligence is becoming an increasingly important tool in warfare, but it requires access to an extensive civilian digital infrastructure 13.04.23 Review Europe and the US to Avoid Recessions, but Global Economic Growth to Remain Subdued 13.04.23 Analytics The Authoritarian Renaissance: When Will Democracy Bounce Back? The global freedom rankings have continued to decline for the past 17 years, but the resurgence of authoritarianism appears to be running out of steam, according to a new report from Freedom House. Re: Russia’s democratisation index does not support these assumptions: the rate of de-democratisation peaked in 2017-2020, so it would be premature to call the deceleration of authoritarianism in 2021-2022 a turning point. 12.04.23 Polls Review Crimean relapse: since the start of the war poll respondents see Russia as more developed, wealthy, and free than they did during peacetime 12.04.23 Review Shadow of the KGB: the archaic methods used by Russia's security services played a major role in the launch of Europe’s largest war in the last 70 years 11.04.23 Analytics From Prison to War. Why Russia urgently needs prison reform Olga Romanova The widespread military use of prisoners on Ukrainian soil has been one of the most shocking and unusual characteristics of the current war. At its heart lies the peculiar world of violence and lawlessness that exists in the Russian penitentiary system, which is carefully guarded by the Russian authorities from any attempts at reform. 11.04.23 Sanctions Review Negative Mixed Effect: a quarter of industrial enterprises have benefited from the ‘positive’ effect of sanctions, but this will eventually lead to the growth of a ‘stagnant sector’ in industry 10.04.23 Propaganda Review The ‘Vulkan’ leak: documents from a little-known firm reveal Russia's digital authoritarianism strategy 07.04.23 Review Out of Sync Under Sanctions: positive trends in industrial production fail to transform into full economic recovery 07.04.23 Sanctions Review Europe is set to buy $70 billion dollars worth of oil and gas from Russia this year, but even with tougher sanctions, Putin’s regime is unlikely to be crippled 07.04.23 Repressions Review Russia’s Repression Reaches New Heights: the number of sentences resulting in incarceration increased significantly in early 2023, as did the length of the terms being handed out 06.04.23 Review Anti-war Archipelago: how Russians are resisting the war that the Russian government is waging in Ukraine 06.04.23 Analytics WAR AND ORDER. THE ‘VIRTUAL’ ARREST OF PUTIN AND THE EVOLUTION OF INTERNATIONAL JUSTICE The issuance of an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin by the International Criminal Court is a once-in-a-lifetime legal and political event. Although it appears unlikely that the warrant will be executed, the fact that it was issued has immense implications for the development of international justice, a fragile global system based on war and war crimes. 05.04.23 Review Neverending horror: An authoritarian leader might compensate for the failure of a ‘small victorious war’ by carrying out a protracted, deadlocked conflict 04.04.23 Polls Review General Demobilisation: Russian society is paying less attention to the war in Ukraine and support for the ‘special operation’ continues to wane 03.04.23 Review Frozen Wealth: The West lacks the legal mechanisms to utilise frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine 31.03.23 Review The War on Science: the decades-long attempt to modernise Russian science and higher education has been virtually wiped out in a single year of the war 31.03.23 Expertise The Exodus Year: Those Who Left, Those Who Stayed, and the Breakdown in Communication Lyubov Borusyak Both those who left Russia and those who stayed have a similar outlook on the political situation and rely on similar information sources. However, many of those who have stayed believe that those who have left hold them more responsible for the ongoing war and view their decision to stay as a deviant attitude. Overcoming this tension and developing an ideology of solidarity between the two groups is crucial as both groups need each other's support. 29.03.23 Review Consumer frustration: Russian citizens are more optimistic about the future of the economy but there has been no change to their spending habits 29.03.23 Review The Fight Against the Human Factor: the Russian military has failed to achieve any progress in the robotisation of weapons, although programmes were launched in this field a long time ago 28.03.23 Review Trophy Ukraine: an investigation by ‘Novaya Gazeta. Europe’ has revealed the large-scale transfer of property to Russians and their collaborators in the occupied territories 28.03.23 Review The Global Autocracy Renaissance: How and Why the World is Becoming Less Free 27.03.23 Analytics The ‘Georgian Dream’ Cycle: Why the Political Situation in Georgia Will Continue to Heat Up, And European Integration Will Stall Russia and the EU remain the two principal poles of Georgian politics, but its main spring is the internal political struggle — the ruling coalition's desire to hold onto power by limiting the opposition's options ahead of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Sooner or later, this will end up in another ‘colour revolution’, the experience of several post-Soviet countries suggests. 24.03.23 Review The Divided South: there is not necessarily a correlation between lack of support for sanctions and support for Russia 23.03.23 Mobilisation Review The Partial Criminalisation: Russian courts prefer handing down suspended sentences to soldiers so that they can be sent back to the front 23.03.23 Review Aggressive but Weak: According to American intelligence, Russia poses less danger today than it did a year ago as a result of its military failures in Ukraine 22.03.23 Review The Deficit Recovery: the business climate indicator has continued to show improvement thanks to the Russian government’s cash injections into the economy 22.03.23 Expertise Children, Chaebols and Adjutants: Human resource policy during the war’s first year Nikolay Petrov In autocracies, the place of public politics is occupied by personnel politics, which becomes both the reflection and the result of struggles among elite factions, influence groups, and corporate interests, all of which are not able to be balanced out by the activities of public parties and associations. Against the backdrop of the tectonic social shifts associated with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the personnel changes of the first year of the war seem very modest. However, it is likely to be a lull caused by confusion in the face of setbacks. 21.03.23 Review The Gas Cold War: Europe has overcome its gas dependency on Russia through fortune rather than designи 21.03.23 Repressions Review The Courts as Guardians of The War: in the past year, over 3,800 people have received administrative penalties in Russia for their anti-war positions; the state has levied over 143 million rubles in fines 20.03.23 China Review From minimum deterrence to maximum threat: will China enter into a nuclear arms race with the US? 20.03.23 Sanctions Review Will Russia have enough money for the war? Oil prices are falling, but the IEA predicts an increase in demand by the end of the year, rendering sanctions ineffective 17.03.23 Review Dictator at War: Lessons from the Protracted Iran-Iraq War of the 1980s 15.03.23 Prigozhin Review The Chef in the Kitchen of Dirty Deeds: researchers have mapped the company activity of Yevgeny Prigozhin, while The New York Times predicts that he will continue to battle for political influence after military defeat 14.03.23 Review The Geography of Weapons: the war in Ukraine has significantly altered the structure of the global arms trade, with Russia on the way to losing its position as the world’s second-largest arms exporter 14.03.23 Expertise ‘Once we've started, we can't stop’: how Russians' attitudes to the war in Ukraine are changing Svetlana Erpyleva Over the past year, a number of opinion polls have attempted to discover which Russians support the war in Ukraine and which do not. However, in-depth interviews reveal that these efforts may not be capable of yielding any satisfactory results: the majority of Russians both support and do not support the war at the same time. The attitudes of Russian citizens towards the war are a patchwork, contradictory and in flux, consisting of arguments and narratives from each side. 13.03.23 China Review Domestic Foreign Policy: Biden will need to reckon with the fact that Americans largely perceive China as the greatest threat to US interests, not Russia 10.03.23 Review Import Substitution Woes: companies using Russian-made products report quality issues 10.03.23 War Review War Data: OSINT technology has transformed modern warfare into a ‘people’s warfare’, so that now anyone with an Internet connection can take part 09.03.23 Polls Analytics RUSSIAN FIELD: SUPPORT FOR NON-SUPPORT OF PEACE AND WAR Over the past year, the independent Russian Field project has been surveying its respondents about their support for a renewed offensive against Kyiv and their support for a peace agreement with Ukraine. The answers to these questions allow us to identify three different groups: those who support escalation, those who are opposed to it, and conformists who approve of any decision made by the authorities. What is the structure of these groups and how do they relate to one another? 08.03.23 Review An Illusion of Growth: even if the central bank improves its forecast for the Russian economy, the quality of growth will remain low 07.03.23 Polls Review The Fog of War and The Climate of Opinion: polls indicate rising pro-war sentiments, increasingly positive assessments of the success of the ‘special military operation,’ and growing fear of pollsters 07.03.23 Review Optimistic Stagnation: despite optimism from business managers and the government, Russian industrial production fell at the beginning of 2023 06.03.23 Propaganda Review The Non-Mobilising Web: How pro-Kremlin media laid the groundwork for the invasion of Ukraine 03.03.23 Future Discussion Putinism without Putin: what is it and is it even possible? Nikita Savin Not only for the Russian elites, but also for a significant part of the population who were relatively satisfied with the economic prosperity of life before the war, an attractive scenario for the future is not the total collapse of the regime, but rather the establishment of Putinism without Putin himself, as he has now threatened the very existence of this ideology 03.03.23 Review Anxious Loyalty: Appeals to the President from Russian citizens reflect the evolving profile of social well-being in the midst of war 02.03.23 Review Burning Daylight: Sanctions against Russian oil are ineffective due to a lack of effective compliance and control mechanisms 01.03.23 Polls Expertise THE PLUNGE INTO WAR: PUBLIC OPINION CHRONICLED While at first glance it may seem as though there is a declarative ‘majority of support’ for the war, there is perhaps more significantly a ‘majority of non-resistance’, which allows the pro-war minority to dominate the public debate. For mainstream Russian society, the ‘plunge into war’ remains a coerced strategy, and the consolidation of revanchist sentiments among one segment of society coexists with the considerable potential for demobilisation within another. Re: Russia presents an overview of the results of public opinion polling conducted by the independent Chronicles project. 28.02.23 Review Tactical migration: The levels of labour migration grew in 2022, but are still far below pre-pandemic levels. The Russian authorities are seeking to use these migrants as resources for their war 27.02.23 Review Re: Russia in the First Year of the War. Six critical analytical perspectives 24.02.23 Review Grave Loyalty: the payouts offered by the Russian government for those killed in Ukraine are worth only slightly more than the price Russians place on their own lives 23.02.23 Analytics The Mastermind of Rebellion: Prigozhin, ‘a divided elite’ and ‘reverse perestroika’ Within the cacophony of nationwide approval for the ‘special operation’ and the harmonious hum of patriotic speeches, a captivating tale has emerged: a clash between Prigozhin and the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. It serves as a rare example of Russia’s hidden political tensions bubbling to the surface and into the public domain. Although this conflict seems to be under control for the time being, that does not mean that it will not escalate into something much more violent in the future. 23.02.23 Polls Review Coercive Cohesion: both in Russia and Ukraine, the results of opinion polls should be treated with caution during times of war 22.02.23 Review How Effective Has the Government’s Support for Small Businesses Been? Not very effective at all, according to data collected by FOM 21.02.23 Review Humanitarian Mission or Genocide? Russia is implementing a programme for the re-education of Ukrainian children taken from the occupied territories 20.02.23 Review Global Risk Society: the Russian-Ukrainian war has increased global risk perceptions, but differences between countries continue 20.02.23 War Review Big War Returns: what lessons have been learnt a year into the first major conventional military campaign of the 21st century? 17.02.23 Review A Revision of Revisionism: A new Munich Security Report contends that, in order to successfully confront the world’s autocrats, the West must revise its vision of the international order 17.02.23 Sanctions Review Who is Helping Russia Fight? As the war approaches its one-year mark, sanctions remain largely symbolic according to Russian customs data 16.02.23 Review Changing Identity: How have politics altered Russia’s demographics since the 2021 National Census? 16.02.23 Analytics Digital Policy Divergence: authoritarian states are attempting to construct digital totalitarianism while European countries fight against it The Russian government is developing a digital surveillance ecosystem that will include algorithms for monitoring and censoring digital networks, facial recognition, and political profiling. Russia, like China, is attempting to establish a digital dictatorship standing in contrast to the EU debates taking place in the EU surrounding a ban on facial recognition technologies. 15.02.23 Review Winter is Coming: experts advise the EU to reduce its gas consumption in preparation for next year 14.02.23 Analytics From Hybrid War to Civil War: The Cossacks have joined other private armies on the battlefield In addition to the Wagner PMC, there are other paramilitary formations fighting for the Russian side in Ukraine, including approximately 15,000 Cossacks. The rapid decentralisation of violence and the loss of the state’s monopoly on it, set against a background of military failures and the very real possibility of further political destabilisation, is highly likely to create systemic conditions for civil war in Russia. 13.02.23 Navalny Review Navalny Forgotten: the politician's significant decline in the politician’s visibility and recognition over the past 11 months appears to be yet another paradox of wartime public opinion 10.02.23 Review Communities and Hromadas: how effective self-governance reform has helped Ukraine to resist the invasion 10.02.23 Review Apples and Oranges: Russian industries post opposing statistics 09.02.23 Review Prolonged War or Imminent Defeat? American think tank RAND Corporation presents the Biden administration with an alarmist plan 08.02.23 Expertise Worse Than a Crisis. The 2022 Russian economic anomaly: how it works, and where it is headed Oleg Vyugin, Evsei Gurvich, Oleg Itskhoki, Andrei Yakovlev The Russian economy's decline in 2022 was not as severe as economists predicted, but that does not mean it was able to ‘withstand’ the impact of sanctions. These figures merely reflect the effective mobilisation of economic resources, and as the country’s revenues decline, the economy will face investment deficiency, devaluation, budget deficits, and demand contraction — all of which are symptoms of the conventional economic crisis that awaits Russia. 07.02.23 Review Between a Rock and a Hard Place: the vast majority of Russian businesses report rising costs, but low demand prevents price increases 07.02.23 Review Invisible Violence: unorganised extremism and hate becomes less visible as state repression increases 06.02.23 Repressions Review Online on the Line: repression of free speech and the war have led to the construction of ‘Runet 2.0’ and the ever-increasing isolation of the original 06.02.23 Review Staffing Gaps: war and sanctions have led to a worker shortage in Russia despite record low unemployment 03.02.23 Review Is the West Experiencing War Fatigue? What Opinion Polls Tell Us About the Willingness of America and Germany to Extend Military Support to Ukraine 02.02.23 Review ‘The Putin Effect”: the Russian invasion has led to increased support for democracy and European integration, even among residents of Southern Europe. 02.02.23 Review Horizontal Stabilisation: central bank analysts confirm that while Russia’s economy has adapted to sanctions, most industries will continue to stagnate 01.02.23 Sanctions Review The Not-so-peaceful Atom: can Europe afford sanctions against Russian nuclear power? 01.02.23 Review Rising Budget Optimism: January’s economic activity was boosted by large end-of-year funding injections by the government 31.01.23 Review Civil Society: one in five rubles allocated by presidential grants is spent on pro-war projects, while socially oriented NGOs face financial hardship 31.01.23 War Review Hidden by the Fog of War: assessing the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine 30.01.23 Repressions Review Tightening the Screws: since the beginning of December, Russian authorities have identified a new foreign agent and opened a new criminal case every day 30.01.23 Review A Discordant Chorus of Hawks: how authoritarian wartime public policy works 26.01.23 Review Economic Demobilisation: polling by FOM shows that the mood among small businesses significantly deteriorated in the autumn of 2022 26.01.23 Expertise Crisis in Abundance: why did the Russian economy fail to collapse and is there a crisis on the horizon? Oleg Itskhoki The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy are unprecedented in scale, but they appear to have been less effective than was initially expected. A combination of factors has helped stave off the collapse of the Russian economy, including contradictory sanctions policies, radical administrative decisions taken by the Kremlin, and a surge in Russian export revenues alongside a trade surplus reinforced by restrictions on Russian imports. 25.01.23 Review The Central Bank and Consumers Want More ‘Toxicity’: the fate of the ruble depends on the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil 24.01.23 Analytics Divided Peoples: How Might the War in Ukraine Shift the Balance of Inter-ethnic Relations in Russia? The war's outcome will have far-reaching consequences, and not only on the political structure of the post-Soviet space. It is very likely that it will cause a rethinking of Moscow's relationship with Russia's ethnic regions, acting as a catalyst for increased ethnopolitical protest and separatist sentiments. 24.01.23 Review The Allies vs Everyone Else: although the world may condemns the Russian invasion, only certain countries are willing to fund Ukraine’s resistance 23.01.23 Sanctions Expertise A Price Cap or Smoke and Mirrors? How Much Does Russian Oil Actually Cost? Sergey Vakulenko There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively. 23.01.23 Review The Sanctions Struggle: politicians and experts are focused on the question of how best to enforce restrictions on high-tech imports 20.01.23 War Analytics Unknown Soldiers: What Do We Know About Russian Military Losses in the War with Ukraine? What are Russia’s losses following eleven months of the war in Ukraine? This issue has received little media attention, but it is both pressing and paints a depressing picture of events. The dead have been hidden by the ‘fog of war’, which has meant that Russian society has been unable to comprehend or assess the real costs of the conflict. However, even allowing for the most conservative estimates, it appears that the Russian army’s losses are many times greater than the Soviet army’s casualties during the ten year war in Afghanistan. 20.01.23 Analytics YOUTUBE SOCIOLOGY Kirill Rogov The interview between Yuri Dud and Oscar Kuchera should be viewed as a stylised conversation between a Russian liberal and an ordinary Russian. This person neither has a  clear sense of the purpose of the war, nor are they convinced of its necessity. However, they express a generalised distrust of the West and Westerners, so they have convinced themselves that Putin is a rational actor, even though they are not privy to the details of his thought process. 19.01.23 Polls Review Foreign Agents and Wartime Anomalies: polling shows increasing distortions in public opinion in 2022 18.01.23 Review L-shaped Stability: end of year industrial production in Russia neither declined nor grew 17.01.23 War Review Counter Mobilisation: the quantity of weapons promised to Ukraine is not enough to compensate for Russia's advantage in the next stage of the war 16.01.23 Review A Decade of Darkness: how the war in Ukraine has altered our understanding of the future of humanity 13.01.23 Propaganda Analytics Mistrust Makers: The Structure of the Kremlin's Disinformation and Astroturfing Campaigns The Kremlin's large-scale activity on TikTok and other social networks yields no direct results, but has a serious secondary effect: Kremlin campaigns do not change the minds of those who hold opposing viewpoints, but sow mistrust and a sense of vulnerability of the sustainability of normative and liberal social structures. 13.01.23 Review The Favourable Crisis Climate: businesses have improved their assessments of trade conditions, but express little hope for drastic improvements in the future 12.01.23 Review An Imperialist War But Not a Nationalist one: the Russian right has grown their audience, but their agenda is now indistinguishable from that of the government. 11.01.23 Review Generals Preparing for a Future War: foreign policy experts identify lessons to be learnt from the war in Ukraine 11.01.23 Expertise The Russian Rhizome: A Social Portrait of New Immigrants The new wave of emigration from Russia differs greatly from those that occurred in the twentieth century — the 2022 emigrants typically exhibit high levels of trust and social mobility, and they are ready and willing to become involved in the life of their host countries and actively participate in social initiatives. While these new emigrants have strong ties to Russia, they remain sceptical of the chance for positive change in their home country in the near future. Will the new diaspora have an impact on Russia's history? 26.12.22 Analytics The Forever War Following the success of ‘partial mobilisation’, the Kremlin has become preoccupied with the potential further mobilisation of Russian society. Shoigu and Putin recently announced military reforms proposing a return to the model of Russia as a belligerent state. This is based on the Soviet idea of building extensive military capacity, whereby the army’s quantity can compensate for its poor quality. 26.12.22 Ideologies Expertise Regime of Imperial Paranoia: War in the Age of Empty Rhetoric Mikhail Yampolsky Any rational explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems inadequate and unsatisfying, as it has never been based on any rational grounds. The war with Ukraine is a void created by the continual repetition of pseudo-meanings. Through rhetoric and projections into theatricalised rituals, it organises reality into simple and accessible behaviours that can be easily and widely assimilated thanks to their simplicity. 22.12.22 Review In The Embrace Of Hate: the Kremlin's policy has radically altered the geopolitical orientation of Ukrainian society 22.12.22 Analytics Ultimate Sovereignty: How Digitalisation Evolved from a Fetish to a Vulnerability Alexandra Prokopenko Until recently, becoming a global leader in digital technology had been one of Russia’s objectives, and it had already achieved some major accomplishments in this field. But, the invasion of Ukraine has changed everything: plans for global expansion have become irrelevant and investments have been lost. At the same time, the financial sector’s high level of digitalisation has now become its biggest vulnerability. 21.12.22 Propaganda Review Guns Instead of Butter: the Russian pro-government media is more willing to tell the public about the war, and are ‘squeezing’ economic topics out of the news agenda 20.12.22 Review ‘With Ukraine, Against Ukrainians.’ Poland Has Taken in a Record Number of Ukrainian Refugees, but According to Experts, Such an Influx of Migrants Is Fraught With Increasing Social Tension 19.12.22 Expertise The Patchwork Quilt: The Man-Made Crisis of 2022 and its Effect on Russia’s Regions Natalya Zubarevich In 2022, Russia has witnessed a variety of economic trends: some Russian regions have shown strong economic growth, while others have witnessed significant decline. These discrepancies, as Russian businesses have attempted to tackle the ongoing crisis, can be explained by an extensive list of factors: sanctions, the disruption of supply chains, government support packages, increased defence spending, Western companies leaving the Russian market, and the emergence of new product niches. Significantly, however, high revenues from raw material exports continue to mitigate the crisis. 19.12.22 Review Opium For Europe: lack of a competitive alternative to Russian gas makes pragmatists discuss the hypothetical possibility of its return to the European market 16.12.22 Analytics An Investment Anomaly Although the Russian economy contracted in 2022, there was an increase in investment activity compared to last year. It should be noted, however, that in many sectors these investments were not being used to expand production, but rather to replace disappearing imports and maintain production output in the wake of sanctions. 15.12.22 Review Post-War Reforms In Ukraine Will Be Aimed At Broad Integration With The EU And Non-Cooperation With Russia 14.12.22 Review De-Russification Of Ukraine: Russian aggression became the major factor in the consolidation of Ukraine as a nation-state 13.12.22 Review Negative Adaptability: the Russian economy copes with the shocks of war and sanctions through strategic simplification 12.12.22 Polls Review Normative Loyalty: loyalty to the war and official rhetoric among pollsters surveyed remains high, although there are very few war enthusiasts 09.12.22 War Review Failed State: even early 2000s "terrorists" are sent to fight in Ukraine 09.12.22 EU Review "Ukraine Comes First": Berlin has recognized the exhaustion and fallacy of the course toward special relations with Russia, which it has adhered to for the last fifty years 08.12.22 Review Sustained Unsustainable Stagnation: the Russian economy is supported by technological regression, the production of shells and military uniforms 07.12.22 Analytics Enough Money to Keep the War Going Sergey Aleksashenko Russia’s budget revenues surpassed last year’s despite nine months of war, the contraction of its economy, the loss of export markets and sanctions. This has allowed the Kremlin to increase its military spending without any particularly serious consequences to its economy. Although a decline in income next year is inevitable, it is unlikely that this will affect Russia's ability to continue the war. 07.12.22 Review Statistical Illusion: Russia has mostly restored its imports, but not the right one, and not from the right places 06.12.22 Expertise War as a Civilisational Shift Marina Davydova The war against Ukraine has become an instrument to sever Russia's ties with the West in a radical manner. This may likely result in an equally radical transformation of Russian society, altering the natural course of its development. Marina Davydova, one of the main ideologues and facilitators of the integration between Russian and European theatre over the last decade, analyses the nature of this cultural and civilisational shift and its potential consequences, and describes the pogrom that Russian theatre has experienced since the start of the war. 06.12.22 Polls Review The War Is Stuck: the tension of mobilisation has diminished, supporters of peace negotiations remain in the majority, but a less overwhelming one 05.12.22 Review A Preventive Defeat: no matter how the war ends, Russia will come out of it weakened and will be forced to adopt a "self-limiting" policy, experts say 02.12.22 Analytics A boom in newcomers When the war broke out, the IMF predicted that Russia’s deep recession would hamper economic growth in neighbouring countries in 2022. But for many of its neighbours the crisis stemming from the war and its accompanying sanctions has proved to be an opportunity, as human capital has fled Russia to spend their money elsewhere. 02.12.22 Sanctions Review The Race of Restrictions: sanctions may not critically damage a large economy, but they may permanently undermine its technological competitiveness potential 01.12.22 Review Black Swans Through Rose-tinted Glasses: consumer sentiment and economic expectations of Russians in November improved again after the fall of October 30.11.22 Polls Expertise Special Operation Frustration Nadya Evangelian, Andrey Tkachenko Russian citizens are finding it increasingly difficult to respond to questions regarding the ‘special military operation’, such as when it will end and how well it is going. The number of Russians who are experiencing anxiety and depression is growing. These are the latest findings from polling by the independent Chronicles project. Although the level of support for the war recorded by this project has remained unchanged since the beginning of the summer — hovering at about 55% — the core of supporters of the ‘special operation’ stands at no more than a third of all respondents. 30.11.22 Review Expectations Oscilloscope: business climate index fluctuates along with shifts in business sentiment amid stagnation, low demand, and deteriorating lending conditions 29.11.22 Propaganda Review "Kremlin Trolls Never Sleep": Russian propaganda campaigns on European social media are not very effective but can cause problems in crisis situations 29.11.22 Repressions Review Autumn Repressions: decline of protests and detentions, development of the fight against "foreign agents," and totalitarian practices 28.11.22 Mobilisation Review The Stolen War: mobilisation in Russia is carried out by a special presidential department, but only one-fifth of allocated funds were spent for their intended purpose 28.11.22 Review Lending For The Poor: loan portfolio dynamics indicates rising business costs and shrinking consumers' demand 24.11.22 Analytics The War Budget and the Race to the Bottom Defence and security spending has become the top priority in Russia’s 2023 budget — a third of the budget will be allocated towards this. Experts have expressed doubts that this will be enough to compensate for the losses in armaments and equipment that have been incurred in Ukraine to date. Russia is entering an arms race for the second time in 50 years, and a scenario in which this, once again, results in total collapse does not seem too far-fetched. 24.11.22 Review Retail vs. the State Statistics Service: Russians reduce purchases and suffer from the crisis despite the official statistics 23.11.22 Review COP27 Summary: the war in Ukraine has aggravated disputes over energy transition strategies, but Russia will be able to take minimal advantage of its stretched scenario 23.11.22 War Review Criminal-Patriotic War: the contractual army crisis has forced the Kremlin to rely on informal armies and criminal contingents 22.11.22 Repressions Review The Fight Against Vandalism, Punitive Psychiatry, and the Criminalization of Geography: Major Trends in the Repressive Activities of the Russian Authorities 21.11.22 Review A Shot in Both Legs: war and sanctions deprive the Russian economy of the opportunity to adapt to the energy transition, China will take advantage of Russia 18.11.22 War Analytics Sixteen Scenarios and Five Triggers There is some agreement among experts that, when it comes to multiple possible scenarios for the outcome of the war, their probability is determined by several key factors: further arms supplies to Ukrainian troops, Russia's ability to overcome the disorganisation and demoralisation of its army, the condition of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the nuclear "card", and the fate of the Putin regime itself. 17.11.22 Review Nuclear Non-Deterrence: war in Ukraine makes non-conclusion of a new treaty on strategic offensive arms limitation more plausible 17.11.22 Review Offshorization of Integration: war and sanctions are leading to a fundamental change in the Eurasian Economic Union's nature 16.11.22 China Review Systemic Chinese Threat: experts discuss how the United States can maintain its leadership 16.11.22 Polls Review The Inclusion Of Occupied Ukrainian Territories In Russia Has Not Met Any Emotional Response Among Russians: by the end of October, only 6% of the respondents remembered about this event 15.11.22 Review Double Pressure: Russia's budget problems will sharply aggravate in the first half of 2023 15.11.22 War Review Negotiating a Future War: the world wants Ukraine to agree on freezing the conflict, while Putin has already created a pretext for a new invasion 14.11.22 Propaganda Review Telegram's Frankenstein: how social media dynamics are changing the political agenda in Russia 11.11.22 Review Russia Is Losing Its Political and Military Influence in Central Asia, But Still Holds Sway Over Television 10.11.22 Analytics Geo-economic Fragmentation: from impossible to inevitable? Until recently, a scenario in which the world underwent new geo-economic fragmentation had seemed quite fantastical, but now this is becoming increasingly likely, despite its potential consequences. We are witnessing growing tensions between democratic and authoritarian countries, and a situation in which political reasons are more often outweighing the fears of collateral economic losses. 09.11.22 Review Forecast Fog: the Russian Central Bank has improved its forecast for the Russian economy, but admits that reality could worsen it 09.11.22 Analytics Cyber Blitzkrieg vs. Cyber Solidarity Mirroring its failures on the battlefield, the Kremlin's hopes for a blitzkrieg in cyberspace have not come to fruition. Moscow underestimated the willingness of governments and private companies to counter Russian cyber forces with horizontal cooperation. As such, the Russian-Ukrainian cyber war might signal the beginning of a reconfiguration of the international cyber security landscape. 08.11.22 Review The New Digital Order: digital assets will be developed to bypass sanctions in cross-border payments 08.11.22 Review A Passing Casualty: the build-up of a "regional grouping" In Belarus indicates rather the dismantling Of Belarusian sovereignty than preparing for war 07.11.22 Propaganda Expertise Putin Fans or Kremlin Bots? Maxim Alyukov, Maria Kunilovskaya, Andrei Semenov Over the past decade Russia has created a powerful infrastructure of "networked authoritarianism". This is focused not on restriction but on the active creation of social media content. Analysis of simulated support for the authorities through astroturfing and the real response of social media users to the war in Ukraine shows that, despite the variety of the Kremlin’s online strategies, its social media propaganda is not always successful. However, it functions to distort our perceptions of "grassroots sentiment". 07.11.22 Polls Analytics The War Party Is Losing Ground In All Polls Time is working against the war — respondents' expectations regarding their financial situation and economic prospects are deteriorating, and the support for military operations in Ukraine is decreasing along with them. According to data from three independent sociological projects, the core of support for the "special military operation" and the "war party" is also shrinking. 04.11.22 Review October Worsening: leading economic indicators show sharp drop in services 04.11.22 Propaganda Review Twitter Weapons: the war of narratives around the confrontation between Russia and the West is taking over the world and has been moderately successful so far 03.11.22 War Review The Kremlin Is Betting on Human Forces in the War, But With the Support of the Western Coalition Kyiv Will Be Able to Counteract It by Building up Technological Advantage and Mobility of Troops, Analysts Say 02.11.22 Review The Fading Face of the Non-Military Economy: in September, industry was still showing signs of recovery. In October, there will be nothing left of It but a defense sector 02.11.22 Sanctions Review Not Everyone Has Left: the exodus of iconic international brands from Russia made a lot of noise, but in reality, about half of the foreign companies that worked here before the war still remain on the Russian market 01.11.22 Review Mobilisation of Pessimism: surveys record slight increase in Inflation expectations and significant decline in expectations about the economic future 31.10.22 Polls Review Support For the War Among Russians Is Rapidly Declining But Has Not Yet Converted Into Rising Opposition, New "Levada-Center" Polls Show 28.10.22 War Review Russia Has a Developed Infrastructure for Biological Weapons Production, Which Can Be Used in the War with Ukraine 28.10.22 Repressions Review Monitoring of Repressions: decline in anti-mobilisation protests, increase of criminal prosecutions and "foreign agents" punishment 27.10.22 Analytics The Global South vs. The Global West: a battle of narratives To engage developing countries and the major powers of the "Global South" in a pro-Ukrainian coalition, the West needs to "repackage” the narrative of the Russian-Ukrainian war, shifting the emphasis from "values" to a rhetoric of sovereignty and territorial integrity that would be more widely accepted in a postcolonial world. 26.10.22 Review Due to the War with Ukraine, Russia is Losing influence in the Post-Soviet Territory, but it Could Lead to Serious Destabilisation in the Whole Region 25.10.22 Review Municipal Cleansing: the Kremlin has crushed the remains of the opposition onslaught of the late 2010s 25.10.22 Review Geography of the Sanctions Crisis: reorientation to the East undermines the competitiveness of the Russian economy 24.10.22 Polls Review "To Be a Man": polls show fairly high loyalty to the announced mobilisation despite gradual decline in the war support 24.10.22 Review Frontal Reversal: Russian business climate is back to the crisis, Central Bank of Russia monitoring shows 21.10.22 Analytics Dynamic Ceiling Europe continues to prepare for a winter without Russian gas and develop a strategy to reduce economic losses and prevent social instability. In Germany, whose economy is a driving force of the EU, the idea of a dynamic price ceiling is actively discussed amid bakery owners' and far-right demonstrations. However, the idea is to introduce it only at the end of winter. 20.10.22 Review The Last Herald: The Central Bank of Russia admits that mobilisation has suspended economic stabilisation 20.10.22 Review Exports of Corruption and Corruption in Exports: Transparency International notes another deterioration in the fight against corruption in international trade 19.10.22 Review The Partial Mobilisation of Fridges: Washington Report sheds light on eight months of sanctions against “Putin’s War” and the Russian Military Complex 19.10.22 Polls Review Despite War Fatigue, Ukrainian Society Not Polarised on Key Issue: its occupied territories must be returned 18.10.22 Polls Review The Frustration of the Mobilisation: Russian Society’s Spring-Summer Optimism Replaced by Confusion and Scepticism 17.10.22 Expertise Crisis Instead of a Deal Sergey Vakulenko Europe will survive the approaching winter without Russian gas, but the energy crisis will continue beyond this year, widening into a global economic crisis. Nevertheless, contrary to Kremlin expectations, the West has rejected the possibility of a political deal with Moscow, and the costs to Russia of the energy and sanctions war will mount rapidly. A new report by Sergei Vakulenko draws some preliminary conclusions from Russia's energy confrontation with the West. 10.10.22 Expertise The Reverse Evolution of a Spin Dictatorship Daniel Treisman In the 21st century, repressive dictatorships seem to have morphed into "spin dictatorships" based on control over the media, but Russia is undergoing a reverse evolution, turning back into a traditional "dictatorship of fear". According to Daniel Treisman, the reason for this regression is not the conservatism and imperial ambitions of the Russian people, but rather the inability of Putin's regime to cope with a successful modernisation of Russian society. 07.10.22 Analytics Revenues Forced to Match Spending Russia's budget for next year is based on some dangerously optimistic assumptions, namely that oil prices will be high and the Russian economy will quickly recover from sanctions. These predictions, however, are based on the idea that spending costs will be high even if income levels decrease. Will the Russian government abandon its conservative budget policy in 2023? 07.10.22 Review Left-right "Anti-colonialism": why India does not support Western sanctions 06.10.22 Mobilisation Review Fraud Mobilisation: the authorities reported the draft of 200 thousand people in two weeks but don't know what to do with them 05.10.22 Review Optimistic Recession: September's leading economic indicators show improvement despite demand stagnation 05.10.22 Future Review Russia After: amid Putin's failure in the war with Ukraine, experts and elites focus more on power transit scenarios and the search for a presidential successor 04.10.22 Review IMF warns of a widespread hunger threat in the poorest countries, and Russia will likely use the "Grain Deal" to criticize the West but won't break it 03.10.22 Polls Analytics The Journey from 1945 to 1941 According to sociological data, Russia’s mobilisation came as a shock to its citizens. Even among the war’s supporters there are at least three different parties with their own justifications and interpretations of current events. 03.10.22 Review For the first time since 1975, Russia has a negative migration balance, and by the end of the year, the population will decrease by more than a million 03.10.22 Review Paradoxes of Adjustment: long-term economic expectations worsen, but lowered expectations make assessments of current income and economic situation more positive 28.09.22 Ideologies Expertise An ideology without principles Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, Gulnaz Sharafutdinova Authoritarian regimes paid great attention to ideological construction in the twentieth century, but in the twenty-first century they have been characterised by ideological passivity. Despite this, Putin's war requires not only military but also political mobilisation. The war requires the construction of ideological narratives that can capture and consolidate the population. In our discussion series, Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, and Gulnaz Sharafutdinova consider whether the Russian regime has an ideology. 27.09.22 Mobilisation Review Yandex-Mobilisation: what search requests say about the mood of Russians 26.09.22 Ideologies Analytics Opportunism By Way Of Sovietism and Anti Globalism Alexander Panchenko Post-Soviet Russia is not unique by any means, but it is probably the only major nation of the 21st century where a radical conspiratorial worldview is popular not only in mass culture but also among the political establishment. Alexander Panchenko discusses the setup of ideological narratives of late Putinism. 26.09.22 Review Russian’s surge of economic optimism finally over and replaced with stagnation, rather than depression, polls show 23.09.22 Mobilisation Review The Special Operation and the Mobilisation: the need to make up for military losses and neutralise the Ukrainian army’s advantage forced the Kremlin into an unpopular and ineffective decision 23.09.22 Analytics Inside the Inferiority Complex Vladimir Putin's recent address to the Russian public contained a direct threat to use nuclear weapons against the West — this rhetoric both refers to Russia's nuclear doctrine and fundamentally distorts its previous defensive and compensatory nature. Re: Russia — on Vladimir Putin’s attempt to falsify the Russian nuclear doctrine and turn it into an instrument of aggression. 22.09.22 Sanctions Review As Russia’s seaborne oil exports fall and its budget revenues slide, the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and ordinary Russians increases 21.09.22 Review The New Russians: most successful and critical part of society leaving the country 20.09.22 Review European experts recommend the EU to implement a comprehensive plan for Ukraine; a strategy for ensuring its development and integration into European society, bypassing routine procedures 20.09.22 EU Review The European Union needs a coordinated approach to address the energy crisis. instead, member States are Opting for inward-looking national policies 19.09.22 Polls Review Geopolitics, Escapism, Depression: Researchers have analysed 213 interviews to understand Russians' attitudes to war 19.09.22 USA Review Two thirds of Americans believe the US should support Ukraine until it returns all occupied territories 16.09.22 Ideologies Analytics The Mobilisation of the Demobilised Ekaterina Schulmann The idea of self-sacrifice and the cult of death underlying the new ideology of the Russian regime are in conflict with the humanization of social norms that has been taking place in Russian society over the past twenty years. Ekaterina Schulmann on the prospects for ideological mobilisation in Russia. 16.09.22 Ideologies Analytics The Crusade and the Ferris Wheel Andrei Zorin The ideology of Putin's regime has gone from an approach based on ideals of a "strong state and civilized way of life" to the revanchist messianism that has become the ideological foundation of the current military venture. But, as Professor Andrei Zorin of Oxford University writes, this ideology has always been dedicated to the task of ensuring the irremovability of those in power. 16.09.22 Review Russia’s Asian breakthrough unlikely to happen soon, according to Central Bank’s analytical review of the problems plaguing the Russian export sector 15.09.22 Review Faltering propaganda and the theft of the opposition’s language: Russian propaganda highly adaptable, hijacks words used by war dissidents 14.09.22 Repressions Review Resisting the resistance: repressions against Opponents of the war are systematic, but not widespread 14.09.22 Review The Battle for People: forcible removal of Ukrainians to Russian territory should be classified as deportation and war сrimes, Human Rights Watch says 13.09.22 Review The Economy of Waiting: after four months of growth PMI Business Activity Index falls; slump of the Central Bank’s similar index stopped only by entrepreneurs faith in a prosperous future 12.09.22 Analytics "The SMO is yours, but the problems it creates are ours" Alexander Kynev Despite the attempts to establish total control, regional elections in Russia remain a field of very specific competition, in which federal party brands play the role of franchises and "privacy screens" masking the bizarre struggle of local elite groups and activist projects. Political scientist Alexander Kynev discusses the peculiarities of the election campaign and the first outcomes of the 2022 elections in Russia. 12.09.22 Review The Road to Turkmenistan: regional elections in 2022 clouded in silence, intimidation and the mobilisation of “state-dependent” voters 12.09.22 Review Re: Russia — Relaunch: new website, new design and a convenient way to sign up for our newsletter 12.09.22 Polls Review The opinions of Russians on whether to continue military action in Ukraine or move to peace talks are almost evenly divided, Levada Center poll shows 05.08.22 Sanctions Review The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West” 05.08.22 Polls Analytics A Broad Front of Inadequacy The July poll conducted by the Levada Center demonstrates that the Russian’s attitudes toward the war and Kremlin policies remain unchanged and are largely accompanied by a surprisingly high optimism regarding the prospects of the Russian economy and society as a whole. Kirill Rogov discusses the specifics of social attitudes in the summer of 2022. 04.08.22 War Review Cyber War: international cooperation and horizontal coordination helped Ukraine resist Russian cyber aggression, experts believe 29.07.22 Review IMF described scenarios for a complete halt to Russian gas supplies and its consequences for Europe: with market integration and higher consumer prices the damage will be half as much 28.07.22 Review Gloomy and Gloomier: IMF has lowered its Global Economic Forecast and predicts stagnation for European economies and the US if Russian gas supplies are cut off 27.07.22 Review The first crisis wave continues to subside, Central Bank survey shows 25.07.22 Repressions Review Limit on Party Voting and Attack on Freedom of the Speech: how the authorities are getting ready for the September elections 21.07.22 Sanctions Review The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show 19.07.22 Review The decline dynamic in the Russian economy is fairly modest due to the economy’s relatively Low engagement in the global value chains, analysts of the Central Bank of Russia believe 18.07.22 Review The Сrisis is yet to peak, and the formal recession will come in the third quarter, macroeconomic trends show 18.07.22 Analytics Telegram vs. TV Data from a June poll conducted by the Levada Center shows that the war has not changed the fundamental trend of recent years: the share of people who get their information on current events from TV has fallen back after a brief spike at the beginning of the war, while the share of those who get it from the Internet has continued to grow. 12.07.22 Sanctions Expertise The Conservation Effect Sergey Aleksashenko, Kirill Rogov, Yulia Starostina, Oleg Vyugin, Oleg Buklemishev The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses. 10.07.22 War Review War of Attrition: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend almost entirely on whether the West can organize arms deliveries in a rational and focused manner 08.07.22 Review Russian gas exports to Europe could drop by 75% by 2025, it would take Russia at least a decade to redirect that volume to Asia, the International Energy Agency forecasts 06.07.22 Review Over the past two decades, the level of Russia’s economic diversification has remained virtually unchanged, new international index shows 29.06.22 Sanctions Review Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments 27.06.22 Polls Review Support for Ukraine in Europe remains high, but the differences between Northern and Southern Europe are becoming more pronounced, a Eurobarometer survey shows 27.06.22 Sanctions Review The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say 24.06.22 Analytics Is the World at Risk of a New Great Divergence? The polls show that the Western alliance will have difficulty getting China, South Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East to support its sanctions policy against Russia, and the world may face geo-economic fragmentation if pressure from the alliance is too strong. 23.06.22 Review Vicious Circle of Crisis: the war in Ukraine might cause the greatest drop in living standards in the XXI Century for hundreds of million of people, the UN expert group warns 23.06.22 Analytics Dark Times Powerful Western sanctions were supposed to hit the Russian economy and weaken Vladimir Putin's regime, but today the economic and political losses incurred by the West seem to be more noticeable. Kirill Rogov discusses the differences in responses to signs of a crisis between democracies and autocracies. 22.06.22 Sanctions Review Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed 22.06.22 Review Reverse Bankrunning: money returned to banks, but the economy shows little demand for it, says the Central Bank May Review of the Banking Sector 21.06.22 War Review The Wrong War: Russian Military exercises did not prepare the army for full-scale offensive war 20.06.22 Review Russian entrepreneurs are optimistic despite more than half of them expecting a drop in sales by year’s end 20.06.22 Analytics Crisis Euphoria Polls in May recorded a rise in economic optimism and a decrease in crisis expectations, which can be explained both by the general mobilization effect — the growth of regime support indicators and positive assessments of the country's prospects — and the widespread feeling that the crisis was short-lived and limited in its influence. 18.06.22 Review Russia.Post: sociologists, historians, and political scientists discuss Russia after the invasion of Ukraine 17.06.22 Review Slowing growth and high global inflation are affecting low-income countries the most, but developed economies are also feeling the hurt, reports by the OECD and the European Investment Bank show 15.06.22 War Review Counter-Reform Fallout: British analysts believe that the failures of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine are connected to the way the FSB evolved under Putin 15.06.22 War Review The "Genocide" Controversy: the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights have attempted to define whether Russian invasion of Ukraine is genocidal in character 14.06.22 Review By end of year personal incomes could fall by 7–12%, purchase of durable goods will decline and savings will become less attractive 13.06.22 Repressions Review 181 Blocked Media, 150 Criminal Cases and 59 New Foreign Agents: Russian human rights activists published a report on wartime repressions 10.06.22 Sanctions Review 70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute 10.06.22 Review The Law Against Trading with Autocracies: most German economists consider it inconvenient, but necessary 10.06.22 Review Slowdown in Global Growth and Inflation on the Rise: Is the world in for a long-term stagflation? World Bank forecast 10.06.22 Sanctions Review Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector 09.06.22 Review The Decline Gains Momentum: April’s outputs have fallen in seven out of nine sectors of the Russian economy 05.06.22 War Review Mediazona discovered 60 tons of parcels sent by Russian soldiers from Ukraine back home, to small towns with a lower standard of living 05.06.22 Review Summertime Optimism: May PMI Indexes Escaped "the Negative Zone" — Mainly Due to Businessmen's Hopes That Demand Would Grow 02.06.22 Ideologies Discussion The Nazification of Denazification Ivan Kurilla, Grigory Yudin, Arkady Ostrovsky, Marlene Laruelle, Alexander Morozov 02.06.22 Polls Expertise The Imposed Consensus: What do the polls say about support for the war and can they be believed? Mikhail Komin, Kirill Rogov 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC" 27.05.22 Review User Migration: In three months of war and restrictions by the government social networks in Russia lost 10% of regular contributors and 8% daily content 27.05.22 Review Reversible Justice: Jury acquittals are on the rise, but the verdicts are being increasingly overturned 27.05.22 War Review Commanders of the Invasion: an Investigation by Proekt Media Presented a Portrait of Russian Army Leadership Waging a War in Ukraine 27.05.22 Sanctions Review The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow 08.05.22 War Review "Responsibility to Protect" or "License to Attack": the justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine once again raises questions about the interpretation of "Sovereignty" and the conditions for its violation