27.07.22 Review

The first crisis wave continues to subside, Central Bank survey shows

In June, the Central Bank's business climate indicator returned to positive numbers for the first time since February: it rose to 0.4 points, compared with –1.5 points in May.

The improvement in assessments of the current economic condition slowed down compared to May — the indicator remains in the negative zone, while the indicator of business expectations for the next three months continues to rise steadily and remains in the positive zone.

The biggest improvement of current assessments is noticeable in the mining industry — due to its reorientation to other markets, while expectations in wholesale trade are growing due to parallel imports and strengthening of the ruble.

On the whole, current estimates and expectations are rising in both production and demand — their previous decline is slowing down — with the exception of indicators in transportation and storage, where the current condition and expectations remain pessimistic, and car sales, where expectations are negative.

However, despite the overall improvement in the business climate, analysts do not rule out that, due to weak demand, a second wave of the crisis might begin before the end of this year.