The Asia-Pacific region, home to one-third of the world's population, 60% of global GDP, and nearly half of global trade, is not simply part of the so-called 'Global South' but a complex concert of rising powers and a highly competitive environment. According to the Lowy Institute's Asia Power Index, the primary battle for influence in the region is between the US and China, who far surpass the region’s ‘middle’ powers – India, Japan, Australia, Russia, and South Korea – in terms of influence.
China has significantly increased its military capabilities in recent years, closing the gap with the US Experts believe Beijing surpasses Washington in its ability to quickly deploy armed forces for local conflicts, making military confrontation more likely than before. However, China is showing much weaker economic performance compared to previous decades. The US is countering this by expanding military cooperation with its regional allies, particularly strengthening both economic and military ties with India. The US's presence and ability to form alliances are preventing China from becoming the dominant power in the region.
South Korea is seen by researchers as one of the most dynamically developing nations, rapidly expanding all forms of cooperation with Asian countries. It is also expected to increase its military potential soon.
Russia appears to be the clear laggard among the region’s ‘middle’ powers. Due to the war in Ukraine and sanctions, it has not only lost diplomatic allies but has also sharply reduced defence and economic cooperation in the region. Traditionally ranked fifth in the influence index, Moscow has now been overtaken by Australia and has lost 4.3 points in the overall ranking since 2019, with the biggest losses in diplomatic influence and economic potential. Nonetheless, Russia maintains a high ‘resilience’ rating, thanks to its abundant natural resources and nuclear arsenal. This mix of resilience and weakened international ties reflects a profile of stagnant isolationism, which is becoming Russia’s primary brand on the global stage.
The popularity of the old concept of the 'West' and the newer term 'Global South' creates a misleading geopolitical picture, where the South is seen as opposing or replacing the West. While this narrative resonates with some anti-Western autocracies and many people in the Global South, it diverges from the more complex reality of competition for influence, tactical alliances, and diverse powers with their own interests and strategic goals.
In the Asia-Pacific region, for instance, we see not only pillars of the Western coalition like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, but also a delicate balance of power and intense competition among non-aligned countries.
The annual Asia Power Index, compiled by experts at Australia's Lowy Institute, measures how regional countries influence the actions of other states, non-governmental organisations, and global events. Each country is assessed based on two sets of factors. The first includes a state's resources: economic and military potential, resilience, and projected resource shifts in the coming decades. The second covers the country's influence and its network of economic, diplomatic, cultural, and defence relationships.
Having analysed the balance of power across these eight parameters, experts conclude that two superpowers dominate Asia: the US (with a cumulative influence score of 81.7) and China (72.7). Although the US is geographically outside Asia, its role as a global player and an oceanic neighbour makes it integral to the regional picture, according to experts. Trailing significantly behind these leaders is a group of 'middle powers': India (39.1), Japan (38.9), Australia (31.9), Russia (31.1), and South Korea (31). Washington leads in six out of the eight factors determining state power, with China only surpassing it in diplomatic and economic influence. However, the era of unchallenged US dominance in the region is over. Since the index was first calculated in 2018, the region has witnessed an intense rivalry for leadership between Washington and Beijing.
Although the US maintains a high level of influence in Asia, China has steadily strengthened its military presence in the region. In 2018, China lagged behind the US by 27.5 points, but by 2024, this gap narrowed to 20.3. For the first time, Lowy Institute experts concluded that in the event of an interstate conflict in Asia, China would be able to deploy its military forces more quickly and sustain them in combat readiness longer than the US However, Washington has compensated for its declining direct military influence by expanding defence cooperation. The US has enhanced bilateral defence integration and coordination with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, and strengthened ties within multilateral alliances such as AUKUS (a trilateral security pact signed in 2021 between Australia, the US, and the UK) and QUAD (a four-party 'security dialogue' including Australia, India, the US, and Japan).
Beijing's regional power has remained mostly stagnant over the past year, which experts attribute to slowing economic growth and structural issues within the country. The COVID-19 pandemic hit China's position in Asia hard, as Beijing's zero-COVID policy severely limited its global and regional connections. China's economic ties with the world became less robust, its international investments dropped by about 30% in 2022, and demand for imports weakened due to sluggish economic growth. As a result, China's economic potential is at its lowest level since 2018, according to the index's authors.
Behind the two most influential countries in the region – China and the US – are India and Japan. While both remain important players, they have dropped below 40 points in the index, placing them in the 'middle' regional power category, according to the Lowy Institute. This year, India surpassed Japan, taking third place in the ranking. India's influence in the region has risen for the first time since 2018, with its economy growing at a rate of over 8% per year in the past three years, following a significant decline during the pandemic. In contrast, China's growth has slowed, with its economy expanding by 8% over the last two years. Experts rate India's potential resources (human and territorial) as its strongest asset, suggesting it could become a major power, second only to the US and China in the future. However, India's weakest point is its limited economic relationships with other Asian countries, as experts note the country is not fully engaged in regional economic integration. Overall, India has the potential to exert more influence in the region but has yet to fully utilise it.
Japan, which holds fourth place, received the lowest scores for resilience and future resource dynamics. Researchers describe Japan as a ‘model of smart power’, having exerted far more influence in the region than its resources might suggest. However, the key factors underpinning Japan's influence – wealth, the size of its economy, and technological superiority – are gradually weakening. Since 2018, Japan has experienced low GDP growth, while its long-term structural problems, such as an ageing population and shrinking workforce, have worsened. Japan has notably strengthened its diplomatic standing and expanded defence cooperation with the US and other countries. Experts point out that Japan, once seen as the economic and cultural hub of Asia, has essentially transformed into a regional security provider, with one example being the bilateral security cooperation pact signed between Tokyo and Manila.
For the first time, Australia has risen to fifth place in the rankings, displacing Russia. Australia's greatest success has been in expanding defence cooperation, but its rise is primarily attributed to Moscow's decline, according to experts at the Lowy Institute. Since 2019, Russia's power index in Asia has dropped by a total of 4.3 points, while Australia's score has increased by 0.6 points over the same period.
Overall, the war in Ukraine and sanctions have dealt a serious blow to Moscow's standing in Asia. In last year's index, Russia dropped four positions in terms of diplomatic influence in the region, losing another two spots this year. Since 2018, Russia's diplomatic score has fallen by 13.4 points. In terms of economic potential, Russia has lost 4.9 points since 2018, dropping from sixth to ninth place. Russia's worst performance is in economic influence in Asia, where it ranks 19th, behind Laos and Myanmar. In terms of defence cooperation, Russia has slipped to 11th place, overtaken by India and the Philippines, despite the intensification of military cooperation between Moscow and Pyongyang. However, Russia received high marks for resilience (ranking third), reflecting its abundant resources and nuclear deterrence potential. This mix of resilience and weak international ties paints a picture of stagnating isolationism, which is becoming Russia's main brand on the international stage.
South Korea has almost caught up with Russia in the power index. The country is actively expanding defence cooperation, and its scores for economic potential, military capacity, economic relations, and diplomatic influence are also quite high. All of this emphasises Korea's status as one of the largest and most prosperous countries in Asia, according to the index's authors. Meanwhile, the most populous countries in Southeast Asia – Indonesia and the Philippines – are playing an increasingly important role. Indonesia's power index increased by 2.9 points last year, marking the country's largest growth since the index began in 2018. The Philippines ranked 15th, surpassing nuclear-armed Pakistan. Finally, Vietnam, which has been rapidly expanding its economic potential (gaining 2.4 points since 2018), should also be noted among the regional powers.
Thus, Greater Asia represents a complex concert of nations with intricate relationships and a highly competitive environment. The strong US presence in the region prevents China from achieving a dominant position.