Sanctions
Will Russia have enough money for the war? Oil prices are falling, but the IEA predicts an increase in demand by the end of the year, rendering sanctions ineffective
Who is Helping Russia Fight? As the war approaches its one-year mark, sanctions remain largely symbolic according to Russian customs data
The Not-so-peaceful Atom: can Europe afford sanctions against Russian nuclear power?
A Price Cap or Smoke and Mirrors? How Much Does Russian Oil Actually Cost?
There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively.
The Race of Restrictions: sanctions may not critically damage a large economy, but they may permanently undermine its technological competitiveness potential
As Russia’s seaborne oil exports fall and its budget revenues slide, the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and ordinary Russians increases
The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West”
The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show
The Conservation Effect
The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses.
Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments
The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say
Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed
70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute
Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector
Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center
Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC"
The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow
There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively.
The Race of Restrictions: sanctions may not critically damage a large economy, but they may permanently undermine its technological competitiveness potential
As Russia’s seaborne oil exports fall and its budget revenues slide, the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and ordinary Russians increases
The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West”
The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show
The Conservation Effect
The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses.
Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments
The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say
Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed
70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute
Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector
Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center
Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC"
The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow