Sanctions

27.03 Sanctions Analytics The Regime is Wavering: Russia seeks sanctions relief without making any concessions To implement the sanctions imposed by Ukraine's allies, the secondary restrictions threatened by the United States against their violators are critical. However, Washington's new course has significantly weakened the perception of this threat and mobilised lobbyists advocating for the lifting of sanctions in the West itself. Will Europe be able to maintain the sanctions regime without US involvement? 10.12.24 Sanctions Analytics The Strategy is Not Taking Off: Russia’s civil aviation industry is facing the prospect of ‘cannibalisation’, cabotage and declining passenger traffic The effect of sanctions is beginning to intensify, while the impracticality of some import substitution plans is becoming increasingly evident. This is exactly how events are developing in the civil aviation sector: in the coming years, it faces a reduction in traffic, maintenance of the fleet using old parts, and the admission of foreign companies to domestic Russian routes. 26.06.24 Polls Review Sanctions Rally: International sanctions lead to patriotic mobilisation while their economic impact on the 'common man' seems to be insignificant 04.06.24 Sanctions Expertise Dynamics of Isolation in Conditions of Fragmentation: The results of two years of the sanctions experiment Alexander Libman The limited effect of sanctions against Russia has been determined by several factors: changes in the structure of the global economy, the effects of the logic of arbitrage, and the internal contradictions of the sanctions regime. Any further dynamics of the impact of sanctions will be cyclical: new tools of control will be created and new ways to circumvent them will emerge as a result. And, in the long term, everything will depend on the extent to which the Russian economy retains its market core. 07.05.24 Sanctions Review Sanctions Compliance: Western banks can play a key role in controlling the supply of dual-use goods to Russia 16.04.24 Sanctions Review Sanctions Game: The US has managed to create problems for the import of microelectronics into Russia, but even more importantly, to limit the development of its domestic production 15.04.24 Sanctions Analytics Liquification of Plans and Tertiary Sanctions Effect: How and why Russia lost its prospects in the global LNG market As a rule, sanctions do not lead to the immediate loss of export markets, but to their gradual restructuring. Political decisions transform into economic costs, resulting in a sharp contraction of the niche for Russian producers. Alongside the arms and metals markets, LNG exports represent another sphere of lost opportunities for Russia. 11.04.24 Sanctions Review The Discount has Shifted: Russian budget oil and gas revenues soared at the beginning of the year due to the narrowing discount of Urals to Brent, but there is still potential for sanctions to be toughened 26.03.24 Sanctions Review How Sanctions Work: High-tech industries manage to maintain services and infrastructure, but fail to develop them 15.02.24 Sanctions Review Rusty Business: The fight against Russia's shadow fleet may only have a significant impact within conditions of a deficit-free oil market and relatively low prices 14.02.24 Sanctions Review Minus $50 Billion: The Yermak-McFaul group has proposed measures to undermine the Kremlin’s ability to finance the war and maintain stability in Russia 07.02.24 Sanctions Review Spillover Effect: Russia’s economy may face a new wave of sanctions stress at the beginning of the year 15.01.24 Sanctions Review Servant of Two Masters: Without the creation of a new and comprehensive export control system, sanctions are unable to stop the rearmament of the Russian army using Western components 08.12.23 Sanctions Review Prices below the cap: The year that the mechanism to limit Russian oil prices has been in operation has shown its ineffectiveness in its current form 30.11.23 Sanctions Review Dancing around Sanctions: The EU is finding it increasingly difficult to impose new restrictions as the old ones are not working 30.10.23 Sanctions Review A Hollow Ceiling and a Rusty Fleet: Russian oil sales and the price cap problems 27.09.23 Sanctions Review Bad Weapons for the Poor and the Unfortunate: Russia is irreversibly losing its place in the middle-tech arms markets but may still maintain its position as a supplier to impoverished and isolated nations 21.09.23 Sanctions Review Naked Goliath: Russia's defence industry has failed to solve the shortage of imported components as equipment and weapons reserves are being depleted 30.06.23 Sanctions Review Southern Corridor: The West is struggling to disrupt the supply of electronics to Russia, with investigators uncovering new schemes and channels for such deliveries 29.06.23 Sanctions Review Sanctions Counteroffensive: Even a partial restriction of the 'grey' import of microelectronics to Russia could shift the balance of power on the battlefield 16.06.23 Sanctions Review Import Substitution: Most Russian companies will be unable to abandon foreign equipment or raw materials in the near future 14.06.23 Sanctions Review Artisanal Digital Authoritarianism: Despite the remaining loopholes for circumventing sanctions, the Russian IT sector is doomed to degrade 09.06.23 Sanctions Review Slow Poison: Russia has failed to replace the imports of high-tech goods hit by direct sanctions 05.06.23 Sanctions Review The Russian car market has taken a step back, reverting to the structure it had in the 2000s and potentially heading towards becoming more like China 31.05.23 Sanctions Review The West intends to continue its fight, threatening to inflict new problems on the Russian economy in the near future 18.05.23 Sanctions Review Flight Against Sanctions: The government is aiming to commence aircraft fleet localisation by the late 2020s, while airlines are reducing their safety standards and resorting to cannibalisation 03.05.23 Sanctions Analytics Schrödinger's Boycott: Why Have Western Companies Not Left Russia Properly? Many foreign companies pledged to leave the Russian market in the initial weeks after the country’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This process was very active at first, but then it clearly began to stall. Moreover, some of the companies that had seemed to have left without too much fuss have begun to return cautiously. 02.05.23 Sanctions Review How Sanctions Have Changed the Kremlin’s Strategy in Ukraine: according to experts, the Russian army’s weakness is no longer people but weapons 28.04.23 Sanctions Analytics Irrecoverable losses: how sanctions have hit Russia’s most competitive industries the hardest Although sanctions have not led to a complete collapse of the Russian economy, they have caused significant and irreversible damage. Industries which had once achieved significant success on the international market have suffered the most and have been pushed towards demodernisation. A striking example of this is the Russian timber industry, which has lost its foothold in the European market. 26.04.23 Sanctions Review The One-Sided Fence: American chips worth hundreds of millions of dollars are entering Russia via China, and there seems to be no way to prevent this 11.04.23 Sanctions Review Negative Mixed Effect: a quarter of industrial enterprises have benefited from the ‘positive’ effect of sanctions, but this will eventually lead to the growth of a ‘stagnant sector’ in industry 07.04.23 Sanctions Review Europe is set to buy $70 billion dollars worth of oil and gas from Russia this year, but even with tougher sanctions, Putin’s regime is unlikely to be crippled 20.03.23 Sanctions Review Will Russia have enough money for the war? Oil prices are falling, but the IEA predicts an increase in demand by the end of the year, rendering sanctions ineffective 17.02.23 Sanctions Review Who is Helping Russia Fight? As the war approaches its one-year mark, sanctions remain largely symbolic according to Russian customs data 01.02.23 Sanctions Review The Not-so-peaceful Atom: can Europe afford sanctions against Russian nuclear power? 23.01.23 Sanctions Expertise A Price Cap or Smoke and Mirrors? How Much Does Russian Oil Actually Cost? Sergey Vakulenko There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively. 02.12.22 Sanctions Review The Race of Restrictions: sanctions may not critically damage a large economy, but they may permanently undermine its technological competitiveness potential 02.11.22 Sanctions Review Not Everyone Has Left: the exodus of iconic international brands from Russia made a lot of noise, but in reality, about half of the foreign companies that worked here before the war still remain on the Russian market 22.09.22 Sanctions Review As Russia’s seaborne oil exports fall and its budget revenues slide, the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and ordinary Russians increases 05.08.22 Sanctions Review The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West” 21.07.22 Sanctions Review The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show 12.07.22 Sanctions Expertise The Conservation Effect Sergey Aleksashenko, Kirill Rogov, Yulia Starostina, Oleg Vyugin, Oleg Buklemishev The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses. 29.06.22 Sanctions Review Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments 27.06.22 Sanctions Review The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say 22.06.22 Sanctions Review Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed 10.06.22 Sanctions Review 70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute 10.06.22 Sanctions Review Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC" 27.05.22 Sanctions Review The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow