Expertise
Awaiting Counterrevolution: Cuba Faces Inevitable Transformation with an Uncertain Outcome
Over the course of its 66-year history, the revolutionary Cuban regime has demonstrated exceptional resilience, adapting over decades to US sanctions and the loss of external sponsors, first the USSR, and later Venezuela. How has socialist totalitarianism evolved during this time? What has actually brought it to the brink of collapse over the last five or six years? Which transition scenarios are possible and likely, and who might influence their trajectory?
The Regime of Civilian Militarism: The Origins and Conditions of the Systemic Conflict Between Putin and the Army
Although the Putin regime can reasonably be described as militaristic, this does not mean that the military itself possesses sufficient political power within it. On the contrary, it is run by civilian militarists, that is, people with a ‘force-oriented’ mindset who have adopted the outward manifestations of military culture but do not understand the principles and mechanisms by which the armed forces function. It is precisely this that creates the conditions for a systemic conflict between the military establishment and the political leadership.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Part 4
The design of successfully functioning democracies varies widely and is largely a compromise between the circumstances of their emergence and their subsequent evolution. The search for the best recipe for Russian democratic institutions is less important than a discussion of the key objectives of reform and the institutional design challenges around which the principal debate is unfolding today and is likely to continue in the future.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Part 3
Projects for the democratisation of post-Putin Russia are typically characterised by both the radical nature of the solutions they propose and by a detachment from the question of how, and under what conditions, these solutions might actually be in demand or implemented. A discussion of a realistic strategy for a democratic coalition requires framing the potential democratisation of Russia as a political process with its own logic, stages, intermediate goals and limitations.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Parts 1–2
The demand for an alternative is not about tomorrow, but about today. To become influential at a moment of intensifying contradictions within the current dictatorship, this alternative must be articulated as early as possible and must appear realistic, rather than utopian. It must emerge from the suppressed demand for change and will have a chance of success if it is positioned not as a breakthrough into a democratic utopia, but as an agenda of normalisation and the restoration of a viable future.
Venezuelan Transit: The Hybrid International Order and the Dismantling of Coalition Authoritarianism
In the international context, Maduro’s capture appears as a shift towards a new, 'hybrid' international legal order. For Washington, the operation in Caracas is seen as a key step towards dismantling the Venezuela–Cuba–Nicaragua 'arc of instability'. For Venezuela itself, which under Maduro represented not a personalist dictatorship but a form of 'networked' rentier authoritarianism, his removal entails the start of a reassembly of the multi-actor coalition of Venezuelan elites and the risk of its fragmentation.
From Peacemaker to Clown: Trump in Ukrainian and Russian public opinion and in Kremlin discourse
During the election campaign, Donald Trump sparked a surge of hope in both Russia and Ukraine for a swift end to the conflict. His initial steps in this direction, however, produced a paradoxical outcome: in both countries public sentiment hardened in favour of more militant positions, and a persistent pattern of distrust towards Trump himself took hold. To Russian observers his initiatives appear unstable and unreliable, while to Ukrainians they seem aggressively imposed.
Three and a Half Periods of Russian Life in Wartime
Over the three and a half years of the ‘special military operation,’ Russians' social attitudes have undergone several stages of change and have come full circle – from crisis assessments of their financial situation in autumn 2022 to an economic and consumer boom, which peaked in early 2024, and then to a new downturn in autumn 2025. By October 2025, the social sentiment index had already fallen significantly below the levels of autumn 2022.
The Narrative of The 1990s: Between personal experience, family memory and ideological myths
The contrast between 'Putin’s stability' and the 'turbulent nineties' has become one of the key narratives of Russian authoritarianism. And although the decade’s reputation in the minds of today’s Russians is largely shaped by personal experience and 'family narrative', their individual and family memories of that era differ from its broader sociotropic assessment, thus revealing the significant influence of the propagandist myth on public sentiment.
The School of Military Putinism: How Russian school education has changed during the war
The intense ideologisation of school education has become one of the central arenas where the transformation of Russia’s corrupt personalist dictatorship into an ideocratic (albeit still corrupt) regime is taking place. There is a simple explanation for this: young people are furthest removed from the ideals of ultraconservative militarism that underpin the regime’s new ideology, and therefore require intensified indoctrination.
The Shadow of Stalin: Why and How Russia is Memorialising the Tyrant Once Again
The remembrance of Stalin in today’s Russia is not the result of any deliberate policy. It originates from several grassroots and diverse initiatives, reflecting different aspects of the Stalin myth. These initiatives, however, resonate with two trends in Kremlin ideology of the late 2010s and early 2020s: the myth of ‘our shared great past’ and the tendency to marginalise the memory of Stalinist repressions.
A New Start: Regional policy and regional nomenklatura in Russia in the fourth year of the ‘SMO’
In mid-2024, the Kremlin began turning its attention back to regional politics after a pause taken at the start of the war. The new approaches may prove even harsher than before: the replacement of governors is now often accompanied by near blanket 'purges' of the local administrative elite. A new trend has emerged whereby the regional bureaucracies are being infiltrated by 'special military operation' participants, career military officers, or administrators who have worked in the 'new territories.'
From Hybrid to Mobilisation: The evolution of Russia's political economy model and the challenges of its military transformation
Over the past twenty years or so, a hybrid political-economic model has taken shape and operated in Russia, combining elements of a 'developmental state' and a 'mafia state', layered over the basic framework of a liberal market economy. The protracted war in Ukraine is pushing the Russian authorities towards a shift in the direction of a mobilisation model; however, such a transformation is a complex and perilous political manoeuvre, the success of which is far from guaranteed.
Somewhere Between Mauritania and Portugal: Possible Trajectories of the Putin Regime Through the Lens of Comparative Data
When discussing the future of Putin's regime, experts usually present it as a mechanical projection of the trends observed in the present. However, real history often unfolds along trajectories that appear unpredictable under this approach. Comparative data allow us to partially overcome this inertia of thinking. What do they say about the effects of wars on political regimes and the prospects for different types of personalist autocracies?
Train, Inner Circle, Kremlin: Russians' attitudes to the war in different communicative situations
In the perception of the majority of people surveyed, they live in a society where there is a greater diversity of opinions about the war than their direct responses to sociologists' questions might suggest. Moreover, a significant proportion of those surveyed view the polarisation of opinions on the ‘special operation’ not as a phenomenon limited to their immediate social circle but as a characteristic of Russian society as a whole, manifesting itself at various levels.
The 2025 Crossroad: Russian authorities will have to choose between two scenarios for the Russian economy
In 2025, the Russian authorities are faced with a fundamental decision: a choice between halting the expansion of state financing and allowing the economy to enter a prolonged period of poorly controlled inflation. The first scenario risks an economic downturn but would correct the existing imbalance; the second also leads to a slowdown in growth and a decline in living standards, but escaping from it would be much more difficult.
Alternative Globalisation: Will Russia become the flagship of a coalition of economic disorder?
Russia is becoming a global laboratory of resistance to sanctions pressure. A dangerous consequence of this is the formation of an economic model based on the abolition of intellectual property rights, opaque foreign trade, and the use of unconventional forms of international settlements. The institutionalisation of such a model threatens to become an alternative to the globalisation we once knew, standing in stark contrast to it.
Regional Elites in the Era of the ‘Special Military Operation’: Evolution, current state and scenarios
The assumption that regional elites might act as initiators of political change or the vanguard of dissent is based on an outdated notion shaped by the experiences of the 1990s. Little remains of their former cohesion and rootedness – today, they resemble more of a fragmented class of regional nomenklatura, dependent on the pervasive federal 'verticals' – bureaucratic, political, and corporate.
Talk, baby, talk: why Trump's intentions to enforce lower oil prices are unlikely to scare Putin
Trump has repeatedly stated that he intends to increase oil production dramatically to reduce global hydrocarbon prices. However, in reality, he has far fewer energy-related levers to pressure Putin than many would like to think. And Trump’s campaign slogan, ‘Drill, baby, drill’, is unlikely to have seriously intimidated the Russian president.
Time for Revenge: The pendulum that swung left has been pushed backwards by voters
Throughout his presidency, Trump will attempt to partially roll back the gains made by Democrats over the past decades; however, his reform plans are unusually ambitious for a Republican. Meanwhile, the polarisation of American society will have a significant impact on the situation in the country.
Five Discourses Around The War: A new map of the Russian public sphere
The majority of Russian citizens gravitate towards a discourse on war that is almost absent in the Russian public sphere. This is loyalist pacifism, where dissatisfaction with the war is combined with loyalty to Putin and the Russian government. The demand for public representation of this ‘silent majority’ will grow as the costs of the war increase – if this happens, an unexpected transformation of Russia's discursive landscape may occur.
Over the course of its 66-year history, the revolutionary Cuban regime has demonstrated exceptional resilience, adapting over decades to US sanctions and the loss of external sponsors, first the USSR, and later Venezuela. How has socialist totalitarianism evolved during this time? What has actually brought it to the brink of collapse over the last five or six years? Which transition scenarios are possible and likely, and who might influence their trajectory?
The Regime of Civilian Militarism: The Origins and Conditions of the Systemic Conflict Between Putin and the Army
Although the Putin regime can reasonably be described as militaristic, this does not mean that the military itself possesses sufficient political power within it. On the contrary, it is run by civilian militarists, that is, people with a ‘force-oriented’ mindset who have adopted the outward manifestations of military culture but do not understand the principles and mechanisms by which the armed forces function. It is precisely this that creates the conditions for a systemic conflict between the military establishment and the political leadership.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Part 4
The design of successfully functioning democracies varies widely and is largely a compromise between the circumstances of their emergence and their subsequent evolution. The search for the best recipe for Russian democratic institutions is less important than a discussion of the key objectives of reform and the institutional design challenges around which the principal debate is unfolding today and is likely to continue in the future.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Part 3
Projects for the democratisation of post-Putin Russia are typically characterised by both the radical nature of the solutions they propose and by a detachment from the question of how, and under what conditions, these solutions might actually be in demand or implemented. A discussion of a realistic strategy for a democratic coalition requires framing the potential democratisation of Russia as a political process with its own logic, stages, intermediate goals and limitations.
Return to Normality and Advanced Democratisation: Scenarios for a normal Russia in the future. Parts 1–2
The demand for an alternative is not about tomorrow, but about today. To become influential at a moment of intensifying contradictions within the current dictatorship, this alternative must be articulated as early as possible and must appear realistic, rather than utopian. It must emerge from the suppressed demand for change and will have a chance of success if it is positioned not as a breakthrough into a democratic utopia, but as an agenda of normalisation and the restoration of a viable future.
Venezuelan Transit: The Hybrid International Order and the Dismantling of Coalition Authoritarianism
In the international context, Maduro’s capture appears as a shift towards a new, 'hybrid' international legal order. For Washington, the operation in Caracas is seen as a key step towards dismantling the Venezuela–Cuba–Nicaragua 'arc of instability'. For Venezuela itself, which under Maduro represented not a personalist dictatorship but a form of 'networked' rentier authoritarianism, his removal entails the start of a reassembly of the multi-actor coalition of Venezuelan elites and the risk of its fragmentation.
From Peacemaker to Clown: Trump in Ukrainian and Russian public opinion and in Kremlin discourse
During the election campaign, Donald Trump sparked a surge of hope in both Russia and Ukraine for a swift end to the conflict. His initial steps in this direction, however, produced a paradoxical outcome: in both countries public sentiment hardened in favour of more militant positions, and a persistent pattern of distrust towards Trump himself took hold. To Russian observers his initiatives appear unstable and unreliable, while to Ukrainians they seem aggressively imposed.
Three and a Half Periods of Russian Life in Wartime
Over the three and a half years of the ‘special military operation,’ Russians' social attitudes have undergone several stages of change and have come full circle – from crisis assessments of their financial situation in autumn 2022 to an economic and consumer boom, which peaked in early 2024, and then to a new downturn in autumn 2025. By October 2025, the social sentiment index had already fallen significantly below the levels of autumn 2022.
The Narrative of The 1990s: Between personal experience, family memory and ideological myths
The contrast between 'Putin’s stability' and the 'turbulent nineties' has become one of the key narratives of Russian authoritarianism. And although the decade’s reputation in the minds of today’s Russians is largely shaped by personal experience and 'family narrative', their individual and family memories of that era differ from its broader sociotropic assessment, thus revealing the significant influence of the propagandist myth on public sentiment.
The School of Military Putinism: How Russian school education has changed during the war
The intense ideologisation of school education has become one of the central arenas where the transformation of Russia’s corrupt personalist dictatorship into an ideocratic (albeit still corrupt) regime is taking place. There is a simple explanation for this: young people are furthest removed from the ideals of ultraconservative militarism that underpin the regime’s new ideology, and therefore require intensified indoctrination.
The Shadow of Stalin: Why and How Russia is Memorialising the Tyrant Once Again
The remembrance of Stalin in today’s Russia is not the result of any deliberate policy. It originates from several grassroots and diverse initiatives, reflecting different aspects of the Stalin myth. These initiatives, however, resonate with two trends in Kremlin ideology of the late 2010s and early 2020s: the myth of ‘our shared great past’ and the tendency to marginalise the memory of Stalinist repressions.
A New Start: Regional policy and regional nomenklatura in Russia in the fourth year of the ‘SMO’
In mid-2024, the Kremlin began turning its attention back to regional politics after a pause taken at the start of the war. The new approaches may prove even harsher than before: the replacement of governors is now often accompanied by near blanket 'purges' of the local administrative elite. A new trend has emerged whereby the regional bureaucracies are being infiltrated by 'special military operation' participants, career military officers, or administrators who have worked in the 'new territories.'
From Hybrid to Mobilisation: The evolution of Russia's political economy model and the challenges of its military transformation
Over the past twenty years or so, a hybrid political-economic model has taken shape and operated in Russia, combining elements of a 'developmental state' and a 'mafia state', layered over the basic framework of a liberal market economy. The protracted war in Ukraine is pushing the Russian authorities towards a shift in the direction of a mobilisation model; however, such a transformation is a complex and perilous political manoeuvre, the success of which is far from guaranteed.
Somewhere Between Mauritania and Portugal: Possible Trajectories of the Putin Regime Through the Lens of Comparative Data
When discussing the future of Putin's regime, experts usually present it as a mechanical projection of the trends observed in the present. However, real history often unfolds along trajectories that appear unpredictable under this approach. Comparative data allow us to partially overcome this inertia of thinking. What do they say about the effects of wars on political regimes and the prospects for different types of personalist autocracies?
Train, Inner Circle, Kremlin: Russians' attitudes to the war in different communicative situations
In the perception of the majority of people surveyed, they live in a society where there is a greater diversity of opinions about the war than their direct responses to sociologists' questions might suggest. Moreover, a significant proportion of those surveyed view the polarisation of opinions on the ‘special operation’ not as a phenomenon limited to their immediate social circle but as a characteristic of Russian society as a whole, manifesting itself at various levels.
The 2025 Crossroad: Russian authorities will have to choose between two scenarios for the Russian economy
In 2025, the Russian authorities are faced with a fundamental decision: a choice between halting the expansion of state financing and allowing the economy to enter a prolonged period of poorly controlled inflation. The first scenario risks an economic downturn but would correct the existing imbalance; the second also leads to a slowdown in growth and a decline in living standards, but escaping from it would be much more difficult.
Alternative Globalisation: Will Russia become the flagship of a coalition of economic disorder?
Russia is becoming a global laboratory of resistance to sanctions pressure. A dangerous consequence of this is the formation of an economic model based on the abolition of intellectual property rights, opaque foreign trade, and the use of unconventional forms of international settlements. The institutionalisation of such a model threatens to become an alternative to the globalisation we once knew, standing in stark contrast to it.
Regional Elites in the Era of the ‘Special Military Operation’: Evolution, current state and scenarios
The assumption that regional elites might act as initiators of political change or the vanguard of dissent is based on an outdated notion shaped by the experiences of the 1990s. Little remains of their former cohesion and rootedness – today, they resemble more of a fragmented class of regional nomenklatura, dependent on the pervasive federal 'verticals' – bureaucratic, political, and corporate.
Talk, baby, talk: why Trump's intentions to enforce lower oil prices are unlikely to scare Putin
Trump has repeatedly stated that he intends to increase oil production dramatically to reduce global hydrocarbon prices. However, in reality, he has far fewer energy-related levers to pressure Putin than many would like to think. And Trump’s campaign slogan, ‘Drill, baby, drill’, is unlikely to have seriously intimidated the Russian president.
Time for Revenge: The pendulum that swung left has been pushed backwards by voters
Throughout his presidency, Trump will attempt to partially roll back the gains made by Democrats over the past decades; however, his reform plans are unusually ambitious for a Republican. Meanwhile, the polarisation of American society will have a significant impact on the situation in the country.
Five Discourses Around The War: A new map of the Russian public sphere
The majority of Russian citizens gravitate towards a discourse on war that is almost absent in the Russian public sphere. This is loyalist pacifism, where dissatisfaction with the war is combined with loyalty to Putin and the Russian government. The demand for public representation of this ‘silent majority’ will grow as the costs of the war increase – if this happens, an unexpected transformation of Russia's discursive landscape may occur.