War
04.03
War
Analytics
Cargo 200 Thousand: For each kilometre of Ukrainian territory captured during the 2024 offensive, Russia sacrificed the lives of 30 military personnel
The total number of Russians killed in the war with Ukraine is close to the 200,000 mark, with about half of them likely occurring in 2024. Meanwhile, during last year's offensive, Russian forces captured about 2,600 square kilometres, which accounts for only 0.4% of Ukraine's territory within its 1992 borders.
03.12.24
War
Analytics
The Vortex of a Global conflict: The war in Ukraine marked the end of the era of limited wars and continues to spread its destructive potential
The Russian invasion of Ukraine marked the beginning of a new era in military conflicts. Dozens of countries have, in one way or another, become indirect participants in the protracted war, while the nature of combat itself has significantly evolved. The destructive potential of the confrontation continues to spread, creating conditions for a comprehensive global conflict.
26.11.24
War
Analytics
Psychological Attack: Russia's 2024 offensive could be considered a failure if not for the demoralisation of Ukraine and its Western allies
Having expended enormous resources, in 2024, the Russian army expanded its zone of control by approximately 2250 square kilometres, which constitutes 0.37% of Ukraine's entire territory and is 4.5 times smaller than the area regained by the Ukrainian Armed Forces during their counteroffensive in the fall of 2022. Russia's primary success was achieved not on the battlefield but in the demobilisation of Ukraine's allies and Ukrainian society.
11.11.24
War
Review
Asymmetric Warfare: Over two years, the Russian army has launched 1834 combined missile strikes on Ukraine, while Ukraine is forced to respond mainly with drone attacks
03.09.24
War
Analytics
The War of Attrition’s Kursk Battle: The interim results of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ invasion
The Ukrainian Armed Forces breakthrough in the Kursh region has brought back into focus the question of Russia's ability to win a war of attrition, while the authorities' efforts to minimise the effects of the invasion in public opinion have achieved only limited results. Polls show rising anxiety, worsening assessments of the situation in the country and a decline in Putin's approval ratings.
17.07.24
War
Analytics
An Hour Before Dawn: Russia failed to capitalise on the advantage it had at the start of this year's major offensive in Ukraine
While in early May most military analysts were extremely pessimistic about the situation of the Ukrainian army following the start of the Russian offensive, by early July the tone of the commentary had changed. The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has been halted and has not achieved its objectives, and although the likelihood of further Russian advances remains, the probability of this no longer seems high.
23.04.24
War
Review
War Draws Closer: The war in Ukraine and geopolitical turbulence have triggered a global arms race — everyone is arming themselves
19.04.24
War
Review
The Point of No Return: As a result of strategic miscalculations and the indecision of its allies, Ukraine is on the brink of military disaster
21.03.24
War
Review
Window of Defeat: The Russian army is advancing its offensive by exploiting the advantage in manpower, innovation and the lack of weaponry on the Ukrainian side
29.02.24
War
Review
Calculating Losses: The ‘meat grinder' strategy remains the main element of the Russian offensive doctrine
14.02.24
War
Review
Year of resilience: If Ukraine holds out in 2024, experts believe Russia will never be able to achieve victory in the war
09.02.24
War
Review
Out of the trenches: To avoid losing a war of attrition, Ukraine must transform the conflict into an asymmetric war of tactical and technological innovation
20.11.23
War
Review
Competitive Contracts for 'Meat Grinder’ Assaults: The Russian command believes that the capture of Avdiivka will have a great psychological effect and is therefore worth any losses
25.09.23
War
Review
Graveyard Monitoring: The intensity of Russian military casualties in Ukraine has decreased in recent months
22.09.23
War
Analytics
Monument to a Deserter: What do we know about desertion in the Russian army and will there be more defectors?
Alexander Finiarel
Desertion by Russian servicemen has not yet become a widespread issue, as sometimes happens during protracted conflicts. However, given that the Kremlin has decided not to rotate mobilised troops, the dynamics of desertion may change significantly during the second year of the war. What factors will influence desertion in the Russian army?
21.09.23
War
Analytics
Second Front: Who Will Win The First Drone War?
The widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, has fundamentally transformed the nature of modern warfare. Drones have become a tool of resistance, levelling the playing field and neutralising the advantages of stronger adversaries. The ongoing race of drone innovation and ingenuity in their application will undoubtedly remain one of the central storylines of the Russia-Ukraine war.
11.09.23
War
Review
Battle of The Reserves: Experts believe Ukraine is more effective than Russia in a war of attrition
05.09.23
War
Review
Who Will Win the War of Attrition? Analysts say that Ukraine has a chance of success if it adjusts its tactics properly
19.07.23
War
Review
Death Toll: The number of Russian soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine is likely in the range of 50,000-65,000 individuals
10.07.23
War
Review
500 Days of the New Old War: The protracted military conflict in Ukraine has upended notions of modern warfare, but has not changed its essence
07.06.23
War
Review
Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Soviet-inherited management style has the potential to hinder the accumulated advantages of the Ukrainian armed forces
25.05.23
War
Review
Meatgrinder tactics: the Russian army is getting better at fighting, requiring the Western coalition to adjust its military aid to Kyiv
23.05.23
War
Review
Bloody Bakhmut: How have the past four months of battle for the city altered the picture of Russian military losses?
14.04.23
War
Review
A natural ally: Artificial intelligence is becoming an increasingly important tool in warfare, but it requires access to an extensive civilian digital infrastructure
10.03.23
War
Review
War Data: OSINT technology has transformed modern warfare into a ‘people’s warfare’, so that now anyone with an Internet connection can take part
20.02.23
War
Review
Big War Returns: what lessons have been learnt a year into the first major conventional military campaign of the 21st century?
31.01.23
War
Review
Hidden by the Fog of War: assessing the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine
20.01.23
War
Analytics
Unknown Soldiers: What Do We Know About Russian Military Losses in the War with Ukraine?
What are Russia’s losses following eleven months of the war in Ukraine? This issue has received little media attention, but it is both pressing and paints a depressing picture of events. The dead have been hidden by the ‘fog of war’, which has meant that Russian society has been unable to comprehend or assess the real costs of the conflict. However, even allowing for the most conservative estimates, it appears that the Russian army’s losses are many times greater than the Soviet army’s casualties during the ten year war in Afghanistan.
17.01.23
War
Review
Counter Mobilisation: the quantity of weapons promised to Ukraine is not enough to compensate for Russia's advantage in the next stage of the war
09.12.22
War
Review
Failed State: even early 2000s "terrorists" are sent to fight in Ukraine
23.11.22
War
Review
Criminal-Patriotic War: the contractual army crisis has forced the Kremlin to rely on informal armies and criminal contingents
18.11.22
War
Analytics
Sixteen Scenarios and Five Triggers
There is some agreement among experts that, when it comes to multiple possible scenarios for the outcome of the war, their probability is determined by several key factors: further arms supplies to Ukrainian troops, Russia's ability to overcome the disorganisation and demoralisation of its army, the condition of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the nuclear "card", and the fate of the Putin regime itself.
15.11.22
War
Review
Negotiating a Future War: the world wants Ukraine to agree on freezing the conflict, while Putin has already created a pretext for a new invasion
03.11.22
War
Review
The Kremlin Is Betting on Human Forces in the War, But With the Support of the Western Coalition Kyiv Will Be Able to Counteract It by Building up Technological Advantage and Mobility of Troops, Analysts Say
28.10.22
War
Review
Russia Has a Developed Infrastructure for Biological Weapons Production, Which Can Be Used in the War with Ukraine
04.08.22
War
Review
Cyber War: international cooperation and horizontal coordination helped Ukraine resist Russian cyber aggression, experts believe
10.07.22
War
Review
War of Attrition: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend almost entirely on whether the West can organize arms deliveries in a rational and focused manner
21.06.22
War
Review
The Wrong War: Russian Military exercises did not prepare the army for full-scale offensive war
15.06.22
War
Review
Counter-Reform Fallout: British analysts believe that the failures of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine are connected to the way the FSB evolved under Putin
15.06.22
War
Review
The "Genocide" Controversy: the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights have attempted to define whether Russian invasion of Ukraine is genocidal in character
05.06.22
War
Review
Mediazona discovered 60 tons of parcels sent by Russian soldiers from Ukraine back home, to small towns with a lower standard of living
27.05.22
War
Review
Commanders of the Invasion: an Investigation by Proekt Media Presented a Portrait of Russian Army Leadership Waging a War in Ukraine
08.05.22
War
Review
"Responsibility to Protect" or "License to Attack": the justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine once again raises questions about the interpretation of "Sovereignty" and the conditions for its violation
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