War

03.09 War Analytics The War of Attrition’s Kursk Battle: The interim results of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ invasion The Ukrainian Armed Forces breakthrough in the Kursh region has brought back into focus the question of Russia's ability to win a war of attrition, while the authorities' efforts to minimise the effects of the invasion in public opinion have achieved only limited results. Polls show rising anxiety, worsening assessments of the situation in the country and a decline in Putin's approval ratings. 17.07 War Analytics An Hour Before Dawn: Russia failed to capitalise on the advantage it had at the start of this year's major offensive in Ukraine While in early May most military analysts were extremely pessimistic about the situation of the Ukrainian army following the start of the Russian offensive, by early July the tone of the commentary had changed. The Russian offensive in the Kharkiv region has been halted and has not achieved its objectives, and although the likelihood of further Russian advances remains, the probability of this no longer seems high. 23.04 War Review War Draws Closer: The war in Ukraine and geopolitical turbulence have triggered a global arms race — everyone is arming themselves 19.04 War Review The Point of No Return: As a result of strategic miscalculations and the indecision of its allies, Ukraine is on the brink of military disaster 21.03 War Review Window of Defeat: The Russian army is advancing its offensive by exploiting the advantage in manpower, innovation and the lack of weaponry on the Ukrainian side 29.02 War Review Calculating Losses: The ‘meat grinder' strategy remains the main element of the Russian offensive doctrine 14.02 War Review Year of resilience: If Ukraine holds out in 2024, experts believe Russia will never be able to achieve victory in the war 09.02 War Review Out of the trenches: To avoid losing a war of attrition, Ukraine must transform the conflict into an asymmetric war of tactical and technological innovation 20.11.23 War Review Competitive Contracts for 'Meat Grinder’ Assaults: The Russian command believes that the capture of Avdiivka will have a great psychological effect and is therefore worth any losses 25.09.23 War Review Graveyard Monitoring: The intensity of Russian military casualties in Ukraine has decreased in recent months 22.09.23 War Analytics Monument to a Deserter: What do we know about desertion in the Russian army and will there be more defectors? Alexander Finiarel Desertion by Russian servicemen has not yet become a widespread issue, as sometimes happens during protracted conflicts. However, given that the Kremlin has decided not to rotate mobilised troops, the dynamics of desertion may change significantly during the second year of the war. What factors will influence desertion in the Russian army? 21.09.23 War Analytics Second Front: Who Will Win The First Drone War? The widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), or drones, has fundamentally transformed the nature of modern warfare. Drones have become a tool of resistance, levelling the playing field and neutralising the advantages of stronger adversaries. The ongoing race of drone innovation and ingenuity in their application will undoubtedly remain one of the central storylines of the Russia-Ukraine war. 11.09.23 War Review Battle of The Reserves: Experts believe Ukraine is more effective than Russia in a war of attrition 05.09.23 War Review Who Will Win the War of Attrition? Analysts say that Ukraine has a chance of success if it adjusts its tactics properly 19.07.23 War Review Death Toll: The number of Russian soldiers killed in the war with Ukraine is likely in the range of 50,000-65,000 individuals 10.07.23 War Review 500 Days of the New Old War: The protracted military conflict in Ukraine has upended notions of modern warfare, but has not changed its essence 07.06.23 War Review Ukrainian Counteroffensive: Soviet-inherited management style has the potential to hinder the accumulated advantages of the Ukrainian armed forces 25.05.23 War Review Meatgrinder tactics: the Russian army is getting better at fighting, requiring the Western coalition to adjust its military aid to Kyiv 23.05.23 War Review Bloody Bakhmut: How have the past four months of battle for the city altered the picture of Russian military losses? 14.04.23 War Review A natural ally: Artificial intelligence is becoming an increasingly important tool in warfare, but it requires access to an extensive civilian digital infrastructure 10.03.23 War Review War Data: OSINT technology has transformed modern warfare into a ‘people’s warfare’, so that now anyone with an Internet connection can take part 20.02.23 War Review Big War Returns: what lessons have been learnt a year into the first major conventional military campaign of the 21st century? 31.01.23 War Review Hidden by the Fog of War: assessing the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine 20.01.23 War Analytics Unknown Soldiers: What Do We Know About Russian Military Losses in the War with Ukraine? What are Russia’s losses following eleven months of the war in Ukraine? This issue has received little media attention, but it is both pressing and paints a depressing picture of events. The dead have been hidden by the ‘fog of war’, which has meant that Russian society has been unable to comprehend or assess the real costs of the conflict. However, even allowing for the most conservative estimates, it appears that the Russian army’s losses are many times greater than the Soviet army’s casualties during the ten year war in Afghanistan. 17.01.23 War Review Counter Mobilisation: the quantity of weapons promised to Ukraine is not enough to compensate for Russia's advantage in the next stage of the war 09.12.22 War Review Failed State: even early 2000s "terrorists" are sent to fight in Ukraine 23.11.22 War Review Criminal-Patriotic War: the contractual army crisis has forced the Kremlin to rely on informal armies and criminal contingents 18.11.22 War Analytics Sixteen Scenarios and Five Triggers There is some agreement among experts that, when it comes to multiple possible scenarios for the outcome of the war, their probability is determined by several key factors: further arms supplies to Ukrainian troops, Russia's ability to overcome the disorganisation and demoralisation of its army, the condition of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the nuclear "card", and the fate of the Putin regime itself. 15.11.22 War Review Negotiating a Future War: the world wants Ukraine to agree on freezing the conflict, while Putin has already created a pretext for a new invasion 03.11.22 War Review The Kremlin Is Betting on Human Forces in the War, But With the Support of the Western Coalition Kyiv Will Be Able to Counteract It by Building up Technological Advantage and Mobility of Troops, Analysts Say 28.10.22 War Review Russia Has a Developed Infrastructure for Biological Weapons Production, Which Can Be Used in the War with Ukraine 04.08.22 War Review Cyber War: international cooperation and horizontal coordination helped Ukraine resist Russian cyber aggression, experts believe 10.07.22 War Review War of Attrition: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend almost entirely on whether the West can organize arms deliveries in a rational and focused manner 21.06.22 War Review The Wrong War: Russian Military exercises did not prepare the army for full-scale offensive war 15.06.22 War Review Counter-Reform Fallout: British analysts believe that the failures of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine are connected to the way the FSB evolved under Putin 15.06.22 War Review The "Genocide" Controversy: the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights have attempted to define whether Russian invasion of Ukraine is genocidal in character 05.06.22 War Review Mediazona discovered 60 tons of parcels sent by Russian soldiers from Ukraine back home, to small towns with a lower standard of living 27.05.22 War Review Commanders of the Invasion: an Investigation by Proekt Media Presented a Portrait of Russian Army Leadership Waging a War in Ukraine 08.05.22 War Review "Responsibility to Protect" or "License to Attack": the justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine once again raises questions about the interpretation of "Sovereignty" and the conditions for its violation