Future
Protracted Military Putinism: How long it will last and how it will end. Realities and projections
The political regime that emerged in Russia as a result of the transformation of the war from blitzkrieg into a protracted conflict has overcome a period of vulnerability and instability. Protracted military Putinism should now be considered the baseline scenario, within which the regime is able to mitigate imbalances, endure significant deterioration of the economy and manage political risks. However, this does not mean that the regime has overcome threats and challenges.
The Russian Matrix Plus China: Presidential elections and scenarios for the country's future
Gloomy with a Glimpse of Sunshine: US global leadership, Middle East settlement, the end of the Putin era, the diminishing likelihood of conflict over Taiwan and the challenges of the third nuclear era
From Gorbachev to Stalin: Four scenarios for Russia according to analysts from Atlantic Council, plus one from RE: RUSSIA
The Prigozhin rebellion is now claiming the role of a 'black swan' or trigger event — an occurrence that seemed entirely improbable and, now that it has happened, is forcing observers to reassess their understanding of the domestic political situation in Russia and, as such, their notions of what might happen in the future.
Paths for the Future: Possible scenarios for to a long-ruling autocrat who unleashes war
The Cradle of Disintegration: Will the North Caucasus Once Again Become the Epicentre of Separatism in Russia?
If Not Putin, Then What: What could Russia be like after the war?
The Disappearance Dilemma: Post-Putin Russia must begin before Putin leaves
Hopes of a new future for Russia ‘after Putin’ may fail to materialise if the demand for change is not already in place before he leaves. However, the sceptics' view that Putinism will necessarily outlive Putin does not seem all too convincing either. They underestimate the potential for modernisation that has been accumulated by Russian society throughout the post-Soviet decades.
Putinism without Putin: what is it and is it even possible?
Not only for the Russian elites, but also for a significant part of the population who were relatively satisfied with the economic prosperity of life before the war, an attractive scenario for the future is not the total collapse of the regime, but rather the establishment of Putinism without Putin himself, as he has now threatened the very existence of this ideology
Russia After: amid Putin's failure in the war with Ukraine, experts and elites focus more on power transit scenarios and the search for a presidential successor
The political regime that emerged in Russia as a result of the transformation of the war from blitzkrieg into a protracted conflict has overcome a period of vulnerability and instability. Protracted military Putinism should now be considered the baseline scenario, within which the regime is able to mitigate imbalances, endure significant deterioration of the economy and manage political risks. However, this does not mean that the regime has overcome threats and challenges.
The Russian Matrix Plus China: Presidential elections and scenarios for the country's future
Gloomy with a Glimpse of Sunshine: US global leadership, Middle East settlement, the end of the Putin era, the diminishing likelihood of conflict over Taiwan and the challenges of the third nuclear era
From Gorbachev to Stalin: Four scenarios for Russia according to analysts from Atlantic Council, plus one from RE: RUSSIA
The Prigozhin rebellion is now claiming the role of a 'black swan' or trigger event — an occurrence that seemed entirely improbable and, now that it has happened, is forcing observers to reassess their understanding of the domestic political situation in Russia and, as such, their notions of what might happen in the future.
Paths for the Future: Possible scenarios for to a long-ruling autocrat who unleashes war
The Cradle of Disintegration: Will the North Caucasus Once Again Become the Epicentre of Separatism in Russia?
If Not Putin, Then What: What could Russia be like after the war?
The Disappearance Dilemma: Post-Putin Russia must begin before Putin leaves
Hopes of a new future for Russia ‘after Putin’ may fail to materialise if the demand for change is not already in place before he leaves. However, the sceptics' view that Putinism will necessarily outlive Putin does not seem all too convincing either. They underestimate the potential for modernisation that has been accumulated by Russian society throughout the post-Soviet decades.
Putinism without Putin: what is it and is it even possible?
Not only for the Russian elites, but also for a significant part of the population who were relatively satisfied with the economic prosperity of life before the war, an attractive scenario for the future is not the total collapse of the regime, but rather the establishment of Putinism without Putin himself, as he has now threatened the very existence of this ideology
Russia After: amid Putin's failure in the war with Ukraine, experts and elites focus more on power transit scenarios and the search for a presidential successor