06.02 Review Online on the Line: repression of free speech and the war have led to the construction of ‘Runet 2.0’ and the ever-increasing isolation of the original 06.02 Review Staffing Gaps: war and sanctions have led to a worker shortage in Russia despite record low unemployment 03.02 Review Is the West Experiencing War Fatigue? What Opinion Polls Tell Us About the Willingness of America and Germany to Extend Military Support to Ukraine 02.02 Review ‘The Putin Effect”: the Russian invasion has led to increased support for democracy and European integration, even among residents of Southern Europe. 02.02 Review Horizontal Stabilisation: central bank analysts confirm that while Russia’s economy has adapted to sanctions, most industries will continue to stagnate 01.02 Review The Not-so-peaceful Atom: can Europe afford sanctions against Russian nuclear power? 01.02 Review Rising Budget Optimism: January’s economic activity was boosted by large end-of-year funding injections by the government 31.01 Review Civil Society: one in five rubles allocated by presidential grants is spent on pro-war projects, while socially oriented NGOs face financial hardship 31.01 War Review Hidden by the Fog of War: assessing the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine 30.01 Repressions Review Tightening the Screws: since the beginning of December, Russian authorities have identified a new foreign agent and opened a new criminal case every day 30.01 Review A Discordant Chorus of Hawks: how authoritarian wartime public policy works 26.01 Review Economic Demobilisation: polling by FOM shows that the mood among small businesses significantly deteriorated in the autumn of 2022 26.01 Expertise Crisis in Abundance: why did the Russian economy fail to collapse and is there a crisis on the horizon? Oleg Itskhoki The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy are unprecedented in scale, but they appear to have been less effective than was initially expected. A combination of factors has helped stave off the collapse of the Russian economy, including contradictory sanctions policies, radical administrative decisions taken by the Kremlin, and a surge in Russian export revenues alongside a trade surplus reinforced by restrictions on Russian imports. 25.01 Review The Central Bank and Consumers Want More ‘Toxicity’: the fate of the ruble depends on the effectiveness of Western sanctions on Russian oil 24.01 Analytics Divided Peoples: How Might the War in Ukraine Shift the Balance of Inter-ethnic Relations in Russia? The war's outcome will have far-reaching consequences, and not only on the political structure of the post-Soviet space. It is very likely that it will cause a rethinking of Moscow's relationship with Russia's ethnic regions, acting as a catalyst for increased ethnopolitical protest and separatist sentiments. 24.01 Review The Allies vs Everyone Else: although the world may condemns the Russian invasion, only certain countries are willing to fund Ukraine’s resistance 23.01 Sanctions Expertise A Price Cap or Smoke and Mirrors? How Much Does Russian Oil Actually Cost? Sergey Vakulenko There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively. 23.01 Review The Sanctions Struggle: politicians and experts are focused on the question of how best to enforce restrictions on high-tech imports 20.01 War Analytics Unknown Soldiers: What Do We Know About Russian Military Losses in the War with Ukraine? What are Russia’s losses following eleven months of the war in Ukraine? This issue has received little media attention, but it is both pressing and paints a depressing picture of events. The dead have been hidden by the ‘fog of war’, which has meant that Russian society has been unable to comprehend or assess the real costs of the conflict. However, even allowing for the most conservative estimates, it appears that the Russian army’s losses are many times greater than the Soviet army’s casualties during the ten year war in Afghanistan. 20.01 Analytics YOUTUBE SOCIOLOGY Kirill Rogov The interview between Yuri Dud and Oscar Kuchera should be viewed as a stylised conversation between a Russian liberal and an ordinary Russian. This person neither has a  clear sense of the purpose of the war, nor are they convinced of its necessity. However, they express a generalised distrust of the West and Westerners, so they have convinced themselves that Putin is a rational actor, even though they are not privy to the details of his thought process. 19.01 Polls Review Foreign Agents and Wartime Anomalies: polling shows increasing distortions in public opinion in 2022 18.01 Review L-shaped Stability: end of year industrial production in Russia neither declined nor grew 17.01 War Review Counter Mobilisation: the quantity of weapons promised to Ukraine is not enough to compensate for Russia's advantage in the next stage of the war 16.01 Review A Decade of Darkness: how the war in Ukraine has altered our understanding of the future of humanity 13.01 Propaganda Analytics Mistrust Makers: The Structure of the Kremlin's Disinformation and Astroturfing Campaigns The Kremlin's large-scale activity on TikTok and other social networks yields no direct results, but has a serious secondary effect: Kremlin campaigns do not change the minds of those who hold opposing viewpoints, but sow mistrust and a sense of vulnerability of the sustainability of normative and liberal social structures. 13.01 Review The Favourable Crisis Climate: businesses have improved their assessments of trade conditions, but express little hope for drastic improvements in the future 12.01 Review An Imperialist War But Not a Nationalist one: the Russian right has grown their audience, but their agenda is now indistinguishable from that of the government. 11.01 Review Generals Preparing for a Future War: foreign policy experts identify lessons to be learnt from the war in Ukraine 11.01 Expertise The Russian Rhizome: A Social Portrait of New Immigrants The new wave of emigration from Russia differs greatly from those that occurred in the twentieth century — the 2022 emigrants typically exhibit high levels of trust and social mobility, and they are ready and willing to become involved in the life of their host countries and actively participate in social initiatives. While these new emigrants have strong ties to Russia, they remain sceptical of the chance for positive change in their home country in the near future. Will the new diaspora have an impact on Russia's history? 26.12.22 Analytics The Forever War Following the success of ‘partial mobilisation’, the Kremlin has become preoccupied with the potential further mobilisation of Russian society. Shoigu and Putin recently announced military reforms proposing a return to the model of Russia as a belligerent state. This is based on the Soviet idea of building extensive military capacity, whereby the army’s quantity can compensate for its poor quality. 26.12.22 Ideologies Expertise Regime of Imperial Paranoia: War in the Age of Empty Rhetoric Mikhail Yampolsky Any rational explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems inadequate and unsatisfying, as it has never been based on any rational grounds. The war with Ukraine is a void created by the continual repetition of pseudo-meanings. Through rhetoric and projections into theatricalised rituals, it organises reality into simple and accessible behaviours that can be easily and widely assimilated thanks to their simplicity. 22.12.22 Review In The Embrace Of Hate: the Kremlin's policy has radically altered the geopolitical orientation of Ukrainian society 22.12.22 Analytics Ultimate Sovereignty: How Digitalisation Evolved from a Fetish to a Vulnerability Alexandra Prokopenko Until recently, becoming a global leader in digital technology had been one of Russia’s objectives, and it had already achieved some major accomplishments in this field. But, the invasion of Ukraine has changed everything: plans for global expansion have become irrelevant and investments have been lost. At the same time, the financial sector’s high level of digitalisation has now become its biggest vulnerability. 21.12.22 Propaganda Review Guns Instead of Butter: the Russian pro-government media is more willing to tell the public about the war, and are ‘squeezing’ economic topics out of the news agenda 20.12.22 Review ‘With Ukraine, Against Ukrainians.’ Poland Has Taken in a Record Number of Ukrainian Refugees, but According to Experts, Such an Influx of Migrants Is Fraught With Increasing Social Tension 19.12.22 Expertise The Patchwork Quilt: The Man-Made Crisis of 2022 and its Effect on Russia’s Regions Natalya Zubarevich In 2022, Russia has witnessed a variety of economic trends: some Russian regions have shown strong economic growth, while others have witnessed significant decline. These discrepancies, as Russian businesses have attempted to tackle the ongoing crisis, can be explained by an extensive list of factors: sanctions, the disruption of supply chains, government support packages, increased defence spending, Western companies leaving the Russian market, and the emergence of new product niches. Significantly, however, high revenues from raw material exports continue to mitigate the crisis. 19.12.22 Review Opium For Europe: lack of a competitive alternative to Russian gas makes pragmatists discuss the hypothetical possibility of its return to the European market 16.12.22 Analytics An Investment Anomaly Although the Russian economy contracted in 2022, there was an increase in investment activity compared to last year. It should be noted, however, that in many sectors these investments were not being used to expand production, but rather to replace disappearing imports and maintain production output in the wake of sanctions. 15.12.22 Review Post-War Reforms In Ukraine Will Be Aimed At Broad Integration With The EU And Non-Cooperation With Russia 14.12.22 Review De-Russification Of Ukraine: Russian aggression became the major factor in the consolidation of Ukraine as a nation-state 13.12.22 Review Negative Adaptability: the Russian economy copes with the shocks of war and sanctions through strategic simplification 12.12.22 Polls Review Normative Loyalty: loyalty to the war and official rhetoric among pollsters surveyed remains high, although there are very few war enthusiasts 09.12.22 War Review Failed State: even early 2000s "terrorists" are sent to fight in Ukraine 09.12.22 Review "Ukraine Comes First": Berlin has recognized the exhaustion and fallacy of the course toward special relations with Russia, which it has adhered to for the last fifty years 08.12.22 Review Sustained Unsustainable Stagnation: the Russian economy is supported by technological regression, the production of shells and military uniforms 07.12.22 Analytics Enough Money to Keep the War Going Sergey Aleksashenko Russia’s budget revenues surpassed last year’s despite nine months of war, the contraction of its economy, the loss of export markets and sanctions. This has allowed the Kremlin to increase its military spending without any particularly serious consequences to its economy. Although a decline in income next year is inevitable, it is unlikely that this will affect Russia's ability to continue the war. 07.12.22 Review Statistical Illusion: Russia has mostly restored its imports, but not the right one, and not from the right places 06.12.22 Expertise War as a Civilisational Shift Marina Davydova The war against Ukraine has become an instrument to sever Russia's ties with the West in a radical manner. This may likely result in an equally radical transformation of Russian society, altering the natural course of its development. Marina Davydova, one of the main ideologues and facilitators of the integration between Russian and European theatre over the last decade, analyses the nature of this cultural and civilisational shift and its potential consequences, and describes the pogrom that Russian theatre has experienced since the start of the war. 06.12.22 Polls Review The War Is Stuck: the tension of mobilisation has diminished, supporters of peace negotiations remain in the majority, but a less overwhelming one 05.12.22 Review A Preventive Defeat: no matter how the war ends, Russia will come out of it weakened and will be forced to adopt a "self-limiting" policy, experts say 02.12.22 Analytics A boom in newcomers When the war broke out, the IMF predicted that Russia’s deep recession would hamper economic growth in neighbouring countries in 2022. But for many of its neighbours the crisis stemming from the war and its accompanying sanctions has proved to be an opportunity, as human capital has fled Russia to spend their money elsewhere. 02.12.22 Sanctions Review The Race of Restrictions: sanctions may not critically damage a large economy, but they may permanently undermine its technological competitiveness potential 01.12.22 Review Black Swans Through Rose-tinted Glasses: consumer sentiment and economic expectations of Russians in November improved again after the fall of October 30.11.22 Polls Expertise Special Operation Frustration Nadya Evangelian, Andrey Tkachenko Russian citizens are finding it increasingly difficult to respond to questions regarding the ‘special military operation’, such as when it will end and how well it is going. The number of Russians who are experiencing anxiety and depression is growing. These are the latest findings from polling by the independent Chronicles project. Although the level of support for the war recorded by this project has remained unchanged since the beginning of the summer — hovering at about 55% — the core of supporters of the ‘special operation’ stands at no more than a third of all respondents. 30.11.22 Review Expectations Oscilloscope: business climate index fluctuates along with shifts in business sentiment amid stagnation, low demand, and deteriorating lending conditions 29.11.22 Propaganda Review "Kremlin Trolls Never Sleep": Russian propaganda campaigns on European social media are not very effective but can cause problems in crisis situations 29.11.22 Repressions Review Autumn Repressions: decline of protests and detentions, development of the fight against "foreign agents," and totalitarian practices 28.11.22 Mobilisation Review The Stolen War: mobilisation in Russia is carried out by a special presidential department, but only one-fifth of allocated funds were spent for their intended purpose 28.11.22 Review Lending For The Poor: loan portfolio dynamics indicates rising business costs and shrinking consumers' demand 24.11.22 Analytics The War Budget and the Race to the Bottom Defence and security spending has become the top priority in Russia’s 2023 budget — a third of the budget will be allocated towards this. Experts have expressed doubts that this will be enough to compensate for the losses in armaments and equipment that have been incurred in Ukraine to date. Russia is entering an arms race for the second time in 50 years, and a scenario in which this, once again, results in total collapse does not seem too far-fetched. 24.11.22 Review Retail vs. the State Statistics Service: Russians reduce purchases and suffer from the crisis despite the official statistics 23.11.22 Review COP27 Summary: the war in Ukraine has aggravated disputes over energy transition strategies, but Russia will be able to take minimal advantage of its stretched scenario 23.11.22 War Review Criminal-Patriotic War: the contractual army crisis has forced the Kremlin to rely on informal armies and criminal contingents 22.11.22 Repressions Review The Fight Against Vandalism, Punitive Psychiatry, and the Criminalization of Geography: Major Trends in the Repressive Activities of the Russian Authorities 21.11.22 Review A Shot in Both Legs: war and sanctions deprive the Russian economy of the opportunity to adapt to the energy transition, China will take advantage of Russia 18.11.22 War Analytics Sixteen Scenarios and Five Triggers There is some agreement among experts that, when it comes to multiple possible scenarios for the outcome of the war, their probability is determined by several key factors: further arms supplies to Ukrainian troops, Russia's ability to overcome the disorganisation and demoralisation of its army, the condition of Ukrainian critical infrastructure, the nuclear "card", and the fate of the Putin regime itself. 17.11.22 Review Nuclear Non-Deterrence: war in Ukraine makes non-conclusion of a new treaty on strategic offensive arms limitation more plausible 17.11.22 Review Offshorization of Integration: war and sanctions are leading to a fundamental change in the Eurasian Economic Union's nature 16.11.22 Review Systemic Chinese Threat: experts discuss how the United States can maintain its leadership 16.11.22 Polls Review The Inclusion Of Occupied Ukrainian Territories In Russia Has Not Met Any Emotional Response Among Russians: by the end of October, only 6% of the respondents remembered about this event 15.11.22 Review Double Pressure: Russia's budget problems will sharply aggravate in the first half of 2023 15.11.22 War Review Negotiating a Future War: the world wants Ukraine to agree on freezing the conflict, while Putin has already created a pretext for a new invasion 14.11.22 Propaganda Review Telegram's Frankenstein: how social media dynamics are changing the political agenda in Russia 11.11.22 Review Russia Is Losing Its Political and Military Influence in Central Asia, But Still Holds Sway Over Television 10.11.22 Analytics Geo-economic Fragmentation: from impossible to inevitable? Until recently, a scenario in which the world underwent new geo-economic fragmentation had seemed quite fantastical, but now this is becoming increasingly likely, despite its potential consequences. We are witnessing growing tensions between democratic and authoritarian countries, and a situation in which political reasons are more often outweighing the fears of collateral economic losses. 09.11.22 Review Forecast Fog: the Russian Central Bank has improved its forecast for the Russian economy, but admits that reality could worsen it 09.11.22 Analytics Cyber Blitzkrieg vs. Cyber Solidarity Mirroring its failures on the battlefield, the Kremlin's hopes for a blitzkrieg in cyberspace have not come to fruition. Moscow underestimated the willingness of governments and private companies to counter Russian cyber forces with horizontal cooperation. As such, the Russian-Ukrainian cyber war might signal the beginning of a reconfiguration of the international cyber security landscape. 08.11.22 Review The New Digital Order: digital assets will be developed to bypass sanctions in cross-border payments 08.11.22 Review A Passing Casualty: the build-up of a "regional grouping" In Belarus indicates rather the dismantling Of Belarusian sovereignty than preparing for war 07.11.22 Propaganda Expertise Putin Fans or Kremlin Bots? Maxim Alyukov, Maria Kunilovskaya, Andrei Semenov Over the past decade Russia has created a powerful infrastructure of "networked authoritarianism". This is focused not on restriction but on the active creation of social media content. Analysis of simulated support for the authorities through astroturfing and the real response of social media users to the war in Ukraine shows that, despite the variety of the Kremlin’s online strategies, its social media propaganda is not always successful. However, it functions to distort our perceptions of "grassroots sentiment". 07.11.22 Polls Analytics The War Party Is Losing Ground In All Polls Time is working against the war — respondents' expectations regarding their financial situation and economic prospects are deteriorating, and the support for military operations in Ukraine is decreasing along with them. According to data from three independent sociological projects, the core of support for the "special military operation" and the "war party" is also shrinking. 04.11.22 Review October Worsening: leading economic indicators show sharp drop in services 04.11.22 Propaganda Review Twitter Weapons: the war of narratives around the confrontation between Russia and the West is taking over the world and has been moderately successful so far 03.11.22 War Review The Kremlin Is Betting on Human Forces in the War, But With the Support of the Western Coalition Kyiv Will Be Able to Counteract It by Building up Technological Advantage and Mobility of Troops, Analysts Say 02.11.22 Review The Fading Face of the Non-Military Economy: in September, industry was still showing signs of recovery. In October, there will be nothing left of It but a defense sector 02.11.22 Review Not Everyone Has Left: the exodus of iconic international brands from Russia made a lot of noise, but in reality, about half of the foreign companies that worked here before the war still remain on the Russian market 01.11.22 Review Mobilisation of Pessimism: surveys record slight increase in Inflation expectations and significant decline in expectations about the economic future 31.10.22 Polls Review Support For the War Among Russians Is Rapidly Declining But Has Not Yet Converted Into Rising Opposition, New "Levada-Center" Polls Show 28.10.22 War Review Russia Has a Developed Infrastructure for Biological Weapons Production, Which Can Be Used in the War with Ukraine 28.10.22 Repressions Review Monitoring of Repressions: decline in anti-mobilisation protests, increase of criminal prosecutions and "foreign agents" punishment 27.10.22 Analytics The Global South vs. The Global West: a battle of narratives To engage developing countries and the major powers of the "Global South" in a pro-Ukrainian coalition, the West needs to "repackage” the narrative of the Russian-Ukrainian war, shifting the emphasis from "values" to a rhetoric of sovereignty and territorial integrity that would be more widely accepted in a postcolonial world. 26.10.22 Review Due to the War with Ukraine, Russia is Losing influence in the Post-Soviet Territory, but it Could Lead to Serious Destabilisation in the Whole Region 25.10.22 Review Municipal Cleansing: the Kremlin has crushed the remains of the opposition onslaught of the late 2010s 25.10.22 Review Geography of the Sanctions Crisis: reorientation to the East undermines the competitiveness of the Russian economy 24.10.22 Polls Review "To Be a Man": polls show fairly high loyalty to the announced mobilisation despite gradual decline in the war support 24.10.22 Review Frontal Reversal: Russian business climate is back to the crisis, Central Bank of Russia monitoring shows 21.10.22 Analytics Dynamic Ceiling Europe continues to prepare for a winter without Russian gas and develop a strategy to reduce economic losses and prevent social instability. In Germany, whose economy is a driving force of the EU, the idea of a dynamic price ceiling is actively discussed amid bakery owners' and far-right demonstrations. However, the idea is to introduce it only at the end of winter. 20.10.22 Review The Last Herald: The Central Bank of Russia admits that mobilisation has suspended economic stabilisation 20.10.22 Review Exports of Corruption and Corruption in Exports: Transparency International notes another deterioration in the fight against corruption in international trade 19.10.22 Review The Partial Mobilisation of Fridges: Washington Report sheds light on eight months of sanctions against “Putin’s War” and the Russian Military Complex 19.10.22 Polls Review Despite War Fatigue, Ukrainian Society Not Polarised on Key Issue: its occupied territories must be returned 18.10.22 Polls Review The Frustration of the Mobilisation: Russian Society’s Spring-Summer Optimism Replaced by Confusion and Scepticism 17.10.22 Expertise Crisis Instead of a Deal Sergey Vakulenko Europe will survive the approaching winter without Russian gas, but the energy crisis will continue beyond this year, widening into a global economic crisis. Nevertheless, contrary to Kremlin expectations, the West has rejected the possibility of a political deal with Moscow, and the costs to Russia of the energy and sanctions war will mount rapidly. A new report by Sergei Vakulenko draws some preliminary conclusions from Russia's energy confrontation with the West. 10.10.22 Expertise The Reverse Evolution of a Spin Dictatorship Daniel Treisman In the 21st century, repressive dictatorships seem to have morphed into "spin dictatorships" based on control over the media, but Russia is undergoing a reverse evolution, turning back into a traditional "dictatorship of fear". According to Daniel Treisman, the reason for this regression is not the conservatism and imperial ambitions of the Russian people, but rather the inability of Putin's regime to cope with a successful modernisation of Russian society. 07.10.22 Analytics Revenues Forced to Match Spending Russia's budget for next year is based on some dangerously optimistic assumptions, namely that oil prices will be high and the Russian economy will quickly recover from sanctions. These predictions, however, are based on the idea that spending costs will be high even if income levels decrease. Will the Russian government abandon its conservative budget policy in 2023? 07.10.22 Review Left-right "Anti-colonialism": why India does not support Western sanctions 06.10.22 Mobilisation Review Fraud Mobilisation: the authorities reported the draft of 200 thousand people in two weeks but don't know what to do with them 05.10.22 Review Optimistic Recession: September's leading economic indicators show improvement despite demand stagnation 05.10.22 Review Russia After: amid Putin's failure in the war with Ukraine, experts and elites focus more on power transit scenarios and the search for a presidential successor 04.10.22 Review IMF warns of a widespread hunger threat in the poorest countries, and Russia will likely use the "Grain Deal" to criticize the West but won't break it 03.10.22 Polls Analytics The Journey from 1945 to 1941 According to sociological data, Russia’s mobilisation came as a shock to its citizens. Even among the war’s supporters there are at least three different parties with their own justifications and interpretations of current events. 03.10.22 Review For the first time since 1975, Russia has a negative migration balance, and by the end of the year, the population will decrease by more than a million 03.10.22 Review Paradoxes of Adjustment: long-term economic expectations worsen, but lowered expectations make assessments of current income and economic situation more positive 28.09.22 Ideologies Expertise An ideology without principles Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, Gulnaz Sharafutdinova Authoritarian regimes paid great attention to ideological construction in the twentieth century, but in the twenty-first century they have been characterised by ideological passivity. Despite this, Putin's war requires not only military but also political mobilisation. The war requires the construction of ideological narratives that can capture and consolidate the population. In our discussion series, Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, and Gulnaz Sharafutdinova consider whether the Russian regime has an ideology. 27.09.22 Mobilisation Review Yandex-Mobilisation: what search requests say about the mood of Russians 26.09.22 Ideologies Analytics Opportunism By Way Of Sovietism and Anti Globalism Alexander Panchenko Post-Soviet Russia is not unique by any means, but it is probably the only major nation of the 21st century where a radical conspiratorial worldview is popular not only in mass culture but also among the political establishment. Alexander Panchenko discusses the setup of ideological narratives of late Putinism. 26.09.22 Review Russian’s surge of economic optimism finally over and replaced with stagnation, rather than depression, polls show 23.09.22 Mobilisation Review The Special Operation and the Mobilisation: the need to make up for military losses and neutralise the Ukrainian army’s advantage forced the Kremlin into an unpopular and ineffective decision 23.09.22 Analytics Inside the Inferiority Complex Vladimir Putin's recent address to the Russian public contained a direct threat to use nuclear weapons against the West — this rhetoric both refers to Russia's nuclear doctrine and fundamentally distorts its previous defensive and compensatory nature. Re: Russia — on Vladimir Putin’s attempt to falsify the Russian nuclear doctrine and turn it into an instrument of aggression. 22.09.22 Sanctions Review As Russia’s seaborne oil exports fall and its budget revenues slide, the negative impact of sanctions on the economy and ordinary Russians increases 21.09.22 Review The New Russians: most successful and critical part of society leaving the country 20.09.22 Review European experts recommend the EU to implement a comprehensive plan for Ukraine; a strategy for ensuring its development and integration into European society, bypassing routine procedures 20.09.22 Review The European Union needs a coordinated approach to address the energy crisis. instead, member States are Opting for inward-looking national policies 19.09.22 Polls Review Geopolitics, Escapism, Depression: Researchers have analysed 213 interviews to understand Russians' attitudes to war 19.09.22 Review Two thirds of Americans believe the US should support Ukraine until it returns all occupied territories 16.09.22 Ideologies Analytics The Mobilisation of the Demobilised Ekaterina Schulmann The idea of self-sacrifice and the cult of death underlying the new ideology of the Russian regime are in conflict with the humanization of social norms that has been taking place in Russian society over the past twenty years. Ekaterina Schulmann on the prospects for ideological mobilisation in Russia. 16.09.22 Ideologies Analytics The Crusade and the Ferris Wheel Andrei Zorin The ideology of Putin's regime has gone from an approach based on ideals of a "strong state and civilized way of life" to the revanchist messianism that has become the ideological foundation of the current military venture. But, as Professor Andrei Zorin of Oxford University writes, this ideology has always been dedicated to the task of ensuring the irremovability of those in power. 16.09.22 Review Russia’s Asian breakthrough unlikely to happen soon, according to Central Bank’s analytical review of the problems plaguing the Russian export sector 15.09.22 Review Faltering propaganda and the theft of the opposition’s language: Russian propaganda highly adaptable, hijacks words used by war dissidents 14.09.22 Repressions Review Resisting the resistance: repressions against Opponents of the war are systematic, but not widespread 14.09.22 Review The Battle for People: forcible removal of Ukrainians to Russian territory should be classified as deportation and war сrimes, Human Rights Watch says 13.09.22 Review The Economy of Waiting: after four months of growth PMI Business Activity Index falls; slump of the Central Bank’s similar index stopped only by entrepreneurs faith in a prosperous future 12.09.22 Analytics "The SMO is yours, but the problems it creates are ours" Alexander Kynev Despite the attempts to establish total control, regional elections in Russia remain a field of very specific competition, in which federal party brands play the role of franchises and "privacy screens" masking the bizarre struggle of local elite groups and activist projects. Political scientist Alexander Kynev discusses the peculiarities of the election campaign and the first outcomes of the 2022 elections in Russia. 12.09.22 Review The Road to Turkmenistan: regional elections in 2022 clouded in silence, intimidation and the mobilisation of “state-dependent” voters 12.09.22 Review Re: Russia — Relaunch: new website, new design and a convenient way to sign up for our newsletter 12.09.22 Polls Review The opinions of Russians on whether to continue military action in Ukraine or move to peace talks are almost evenly divided, Levada Center poll shows 05.08.22 Sanctions Review The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West” 05.08.22 Polls Analytics A Broad Front of Inadequacy The July poll conducted by the Levada Center demonstrates that the Russian’s attitudes toward the war and Kremlin policies remain unchanged and are largely accompanied by a surprisingly high optimism regarding the prospects of the Russian economy and society as a whole. Kirill Rogov discusses the specifics of social attitudes in the summer of 2022. 04.08.22 War Review Cyber War: international cooperation and horizontal coordination helped Ukraine resist Russian cyber aggression, experts believe 29.07.22 Review IMF described scenarios for a complete halt to Russian gas supplies and its consequences for Europe: with market integration and higher consumer prices the damage will be half as much 28.07.22 Review Gloomy and Gloomier: IMF has lowered its Global Economic Forecast and predicts stagnation for European economies and the US if Russian gas supplies are cut off 27.07.22 Review The first crisis wave continues to subside, Central Bank survey shows 25.07.22 Repressions Review Limit on Party Voting and Attack on Freedom of the Speech: how the authorities are getting ready for the September elections 21.07.22 Sanctions Review The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show 19.07.22 Review The decline dynamic in the Russian economy is fairly modest due to the economy’s relatively Low engagement in the global value chains, analysts of the Central Bank of Russia believe 18.07.22 Review The Сrisis is yet to peak, and the formal recession will come in the third quarter, macroeconomic trends show 18.07.22 Analytics Telegram vs. TV Data from a June poll conducted by the Levada Center shows that the war has not changed the fundamental trend of recent years: the share of people who get their information on current events from TV has fallen back after a brief spike at the beginning of the war, while the share of those who get it from the Internet has continued to grow. 12.07.22 Sanctions Expertise The Conservation Effect Sergey Aleksashenko, Kirill Rogov, Yulia Starostina, Oleg Vyugin, Oleg Buklemishev The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses. 10.07.22 War Review War of Attrition: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend almost entirely on whether the West can organize arms deliveries in a rational and focused manner 08.07.22 Review Russian gas exports to Europe could drop by 75% by 2025, it would take Russia at least a decade to redirect that volume to Asia, the International Energy Agency forecasts 06.07.22 Review Over the past two decades, the level of Russia’s economic diversification has remained virtually unchanged, new international index shows 29.06.22 Sanctions Review Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments 27.06.22 Polls Review Support for Ukraine in Europe remains high, but the differences between Northern and Southern Europe are becoming more pronounced, a Eurobarometer survey shows 27.06.22 Sanctions Review The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say 24.06.22 Analytics Is the World at Risk of a New Great Divergence? The polls show that the Western alliance will have difficulty getting China, South Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East to support its sanctions policy against Russia, and the world may face geo-economic fragmentation if pressure from the alliance is too strong. 23.06.22 Review Vicious Circle of Crisis: the war in Ukraine might cause the greatest drop in living standards in the XXI Century for hundreds of million of people, the UN expert group warns 23.06.22 Analytics Dark Times Powerful Western sanctions were supposed to hit the Russian economy and weaken Vladimir Putin's regime, but today the economic and political losses incurred by the West seem to be more noticeable. Kirill Rogov discusses the differences in responses to signs of a crisis between democracies and autocracies. 22.06.22 Sanctions Review Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed 22.06.22 Review Reverse Bankrunning: money returned to banks, but the economy shows little demand for it, says the Central Bank May Review of the Banking Sector 21.06.22 War Review The Wrong War: Russian Military exercises did not prepare the army for full-scale offensive war 20.06.22 Review Russian entrepreneurs are optimistic despite more than half of them expecting a drop in sales by year’s end 20.06.22 Analytics Crisis Euphoria Polls in May recorded a rise in economic optimism and a decrease in crisis expectations, which can be explained both by the general mobilization effect — the growth of regime support indicators and positive assessments of the country's prospects — and the widespread feeling that the crisis was short-lived and limited in its influence. 18.06.22 Review Russia.Post: sociologists, historians, and political scientists discuss Russia after the invasion of Ukraine 17.06.22 Review Slowing growth and high global inflation are affecting low-income countries the most, but developed economies are also feeling the hurt, reports by the OECD and the European Investment Bank show 15.06.22 War Review Counter-Reform Fallout: British analysts believe that the failures of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine are connected to the way the FSB evolved under Putin 15.06.22 War Review The "Genocide" Controversy: the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights have attempted to define whether Russian invasion of Ukraine is genocidal in character 14.06.22 Review By end of year personal incomes could fall by 7–12%, purchase of durable goods will decline and savings will become less attractive 13.06.22 Repressions Review 181 Blocked Media, 150 Criminal Cases and 59 New Foreign Agents: Russian human rights activists published a report on wartime repressions 10.06.22 Sanctions Review 70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute 10.06.22 Review The Law Against Trading with Autocracies: most German economists consider it inconvenient, but necessary 10.06.22 Review Slowdown in Global Growth and Inflation on the Rise: Is the world in for a long-term stagflation? World Bank forecast 10.06.22 Sanctions Review Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector 09.06.22 Review The Decline Gains Momentum: April’s outputs have fallen in seven out of nine sectors of the Russian economy 05.06.22 War Review Mediazona discovered 60 tons of parcels sent by Russian soldiers from Ukraine back home, to small towns with a lower standard of living 05.06.22 Review Summertime Optimism: May PMI Indexes Escaped "the Negative Zone" — Mainly Due to Businessmen's Hopes That Demand Would Grow 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC" 27.05.22 Review User Migration: In three months of war and restrictions by the government social networks in Russia lost 10% of regular contributors and 8% daily content 27.05.22 Review Reversible Justice: Jury acquittals are on the rise, but the verdicts are being increasingly overturned 27.05.22 War Review Commanders of the Invasion: an Investigation by Proekt Media Presented a Portrait of Russian Army Leadership Waging a War in Ukraine 27.05.22 Sanctions Review The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow 08.05.22 War Review "Responsibility to Protect" or "License to Attack": the justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine once again raises questions about the interpretation of "Sovereignty" and the conditions for its violation
26.01 Expertise Crisis in Abundance: why did the Russian economy fail to collapse and is there a crisis on the horizon? Oleg Itskhoki The sanctions imposed on the Russian economy are unprecedented in scale, but they appear to have been less effective than was initially expected. A combination of factors has helped stave off the collapse of the Russian economy, including contradictory sanctions policies, radical administrative decisions taken by the Kremlin, and a surge in Russian export revenues alongside a trade surplus reinforced by restrictions on Russian imports. 23.01 Sanctions Expertise A Price Cap or Smoke and Mirrors? How Much Does Russian Oil Actually Cost? Sergey Vakulenko There’s an assumption that the price cap on Russian oil is working perfectly. However, the terms of the Russian oil trade have changed, and it is therefore useless to employ the old methods of assessing the market under the current circumstances. Today these do not provide us with actual transparency so much as imitate it. In fact, it is most likely that the discount on Russian oil is not as significant as it seems at first glance, and moreover it is advantageous for Russian players to maintain the perception that sanctions on oil are working effectively. 11.01 Expertise The Russian Rhizome: A Social Portrait of New Immigrants The new wave of emigration from Russia differs greatly from those that occurred in the twentieth century — the 2022 emigrants typically exhibit high levels of trust and social mobility, and they are ready and willing to become involved in the life of their host countries and actively participate in social initiatives. While these new emigrants have strong ties to Russia, they remain sceptical of the chance for positive change in their home country in the near future. Will the new diaspora have an impact on Russia's history? 26.12.22 Ideologies Expertise Regime of Imperial Paranoia: War in the Age of Empty Rhetoric Mikhail Yampolsky Any rational explanation for Russia's invasion of Ukraine seems inadequate and unsatisfying, as it has never been based on any rational grounds. The war with Ukraine is a void created by the continual repetition of pseudo-meanings. Through rhetoric and projections into theatricalised rituals, it organises reality into simple and accessible behaviours that can be easily and widely assimilated thanks to their simplicity. 19.12.22 Expertise The Patchwork Quilt: The Man-Made Crisis of 2022 and its Effect on Russia’s Regions Natalya Zubarevich In 2022, Russia has witnessed a variety of economic trends: some Russian regions have shown strong economic growth, while others have witnessed significant decline. These discrepancies, as Russian businesses have attempted to tackle the ongoing crisis, can be explained by an extensive list of factors: sanctions, the disruption of supply chains, government support packages, increased defence spending, Western companies leaving the Russian market, and the emergence of new product niches. Significantly, however, high revenues from raw material exports continue to mitigate the crisis. 06.12.22 Expertise War as a Civilisational Shift Marina Davydova The war against Ukraine has become an instrument to sever Russia's ties with the West in a radical manner. This may likely result in an equally radical transformation of Russian society, altering the natural course of its development. Marina Davydova, one of the main ideologues and facilitators of the integration between Russian and European theatre over the last decade, analyses the nature of this cultural and civilisational shift and its potential consequences, and describes the pogrom that Russian theatre has experienced since the start of the war. 30.11.22 Polls Expertise Special Operation Frustration Nadya Evangelian, Andrey Tkachenko Russian citizens are finding it increasingly difficult to respond to questions regarding the ‘special military operation’, such as when it will end and how well it is going. The number of Russians who are experiencing anxiety and depression is growing. These are the latest findings from polling by the independent Chronicles project. Although the level of support for the war recorded by this project has remained unchanged since the beginning of the summer — hovering at about 55% — the core of supporters of the ‘special operation’ stands at no more than a third of all respondents. 07.11.22 Propaganda Expertise Putin Fans or Kremlin Bots? Maxim Alyukov, Maria Kunilovskaya, Andrei Semenov Over the past decade Russia has created a powerful infrastructure of "networked authoritarianism". This is focused not on restriction but on the active creation of social media content. Analysis of simulated support for the authorities through astroturfing and the real response of social media users to the war in Ukraine shows that, despite the variety of the Kremlin’s online strategies, its social media propaganda is not always successful. However, it functions to distort our perceptions of "grassroots sentiment". 17.10.22 Expertise Crisis Instead of a Deal Sergey Vakulenko Europe will survive the approaching winter without Russian gas, but the energy crisis will continue beyond this year, widening into a global economic crisis. Nevertheless, contrary to Kremlin expectations, the West has rejected the possibility of a political deal with Moscow, and the costs to Russia of the energy and sanctions war will mount rapidly. A new report by Sergei Vakulenko draws some preliminary conclusions from Russia's energy confrontation with the West. 10.10.22 Expertise The Reverse Evolution of a Spin Dictatorship Daniel Treisman In the 21st century, repressive dictatorships seem to have morphed into "spin dictatorships" based on control over the media, but Russia is undergoing a reverse evolution, turning back into a traditional "dictatorship of fear". According to Daniel Treisman, the reason for this regression is not the conservatism and imperial ambitions of the Russian people, but rather the inability of Putin's regime to cope with a successful modernisation of Russian society. 28.09.22 Ideologies Expertise An ideology without principles Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, Gulnaz Sharafutdinova Authoritarian regimes paid great attention to ideological construction in the twentieth century, but in the twenty-first century they have been characterised by ideological passivity. Despite this, Putin's war requires not only military but also political mobilisation. The war requires the construction of ideological narratives that can capture and consolidate the population. In our discussion series, Andrei Zorin, Ekaterina Schulmann, Alexander Panchenko, and Gulnaz Sharafutdinova consider whether the Russian regime has an ideology. 12.07.22 Sanctions Expertise The Conservation Effect Sergey Aleksashenko, Kirill Rogov, Yulia Starostina, Oleg Vyugin, Oleg Buklemishev The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. SERGEY ALEKSASHENKO, OLEG BUKLEMISHEV, OLEG VYUGIN, KIRILL ROGOV and YULIA STAROSTINA discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses.