Faltering propaganda and the theft of the opposition’s language: Russian propaganda highly adaptable, hijacks words used by war dissidents Resisting the resistance: repressions against Opponents of the war are systematic, but not widespread The Battle for People: forcible removal of Ukrainians to Russian territory should be classified as deportation and war сrimes, Human Rights Watch says The Economy of Waiting: after four months of growth PMI Business Activity Index falls; slump of the Central Bank’s similar index stopped only by entrepreneurs faith in a prosperous future "The SMO is yours, but the problems it creates are ours" Despite the attempts to establish total control, regional elections in Russia remain a field of very specific competition, in which federal party brands play the role of franchises and "privacy screens" masking the bizarre struggle of local elite groups and activist projects. Political scientist Alexander Kynev discusses the peculiarities of the election campaign and the first outcomes of the 2022 elections in Russia. The Road to Turkmenistan: regional elections in 2022 clouded in silence, intimidation and the mobilisation of “state-dependent” voters Re: Russia — Relaunch: new website, new design and a convenient way to sign up for our newsletterThe opinions of Russians on whether to continue military action in Ukraine or move to peace talks are almost evenly divided, Levada Center poll shows The Hybrid Resistance Economy: Russian Central Bank outlines the financial architecture of Russian economy's survival “without the West” A Broad Front of Inadequacy The July poll conducted by the Levada Center demonstrates that the Russian’s attitudes toward the war and Kremlin policies remain unchanged and are largely accompanied by a surprisingly high optimism regarding the prospects of the Russian economy and society as a whole. Kirill Rogov discusses the specifics of social attitudes in the summer of 2022. Cyber War: international cooperation and horizontal coordination helped Ukraine resist Russian cyber aggression, experts believe IMF described scenarios for a complete halt to Russian gas supplies and its consequences for Europe: with market integration and higher consumer prices the damage will be half as much Gloomy and Gloomier: IMF has lowered its Global Economic Forecast and predicts stagnation for European economies and the US if Russian gas supplies are cut off The first crisis wave continues to subside, Central Bank survey shows Limit on Party Voting and Attack on Freedom of the Speech: how the authorities are getting ready for the September elections The number of companies experiencing issues with import supplies has halved, but remains high, surveys of the Central Bank show The decline dynamic in the Russian economy is fairly modest due to the economy’s relatively Low engagement in the global value chains, analysts of the Central Bank of Russia believe The Сrisis is yet to peak, and the formal recession will come in the third quarter, macroeconomic trends show Telegram vs. TV Data from a June poll conducted by the Levada Center shows that the war has not changed the fundamental trend of recent years: the share of people who get their information on current events from TV has fallen back after a brief spike at the beginning of the war, while the share of those who get it from the Internet has continued to grow. The Conservation Effect The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. Sergey Aleksashenko, Oleg Buklemishev, Oleg Vyugin, Kirill Rogov and Yulia Starostina discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses. War of Attrition: The outcome of the war in Ukraine will depend almost entirely on whether the West can organize arms deliveries in a rational and focused manner Russian gas exports to Europe could drop by 75% by 2025, it would take Russia at least a decade to redirect that volume to Asia, the International Energy Agency forecasts Over the past two decades, the level of Russia’s economic diversification has remained virtually unchanged, new international index shows Worse Gets Better: Central Bank surveys show signs of import substitution, decline of production in extractive industries and a general reduction in the intensity of negative assessments Support for Ukraine in Europe remains high, but the differences between Northern and Southern Europe are becoming more pronounced, a Eurobarometer survey shows The Government should focus on supporting those industries that have been increasingly competitive globally over the past decade, but may lose export markets due to sanctions, experts say Is the World at Risk of a New Great Divergence? The polls show that the Western alliance will have difficulty getting China, South Asia, North Africa, and the Middle East to support its sanctions policy against Russia, and the world may face geo-economic fragmentation if pressure from the alliance is too strong. Vicious Circle of Crisis: the war in Ukraine might cause the greatest drop in living standards in the XXI Century for hundreds of million of people, the UN expert group warns Dark Times Powerful Western sanctions were supposed to hit the Russian economy and weaken Vladimir Putin's regime, but today the economic and political losses incurred by the West seem to be more noticeable. Kirill Rogov discusses the differences in responses to signs of a crisis between democracies and autocracies. Since the start of the war at least half of the major foreign companies operating in Russia have limited their activities in one way or another, but another half stayed Reverse Bankrunning: money returned to banks, but the economy shows little demand for it, says the Central Bank May Review of the Banking Sector The Wrong War: Russian Military exercises did not prepare the army for full-scale offensive war Russian entrepreneurs are optimistic despite more than half of them expecting a drop in sales by year’s end Crisis Euphoria Polls in May recorded a rise in economic optimism and a decrease in crisis expectations, which can be explained both by the general mobilization effect — the growth of regime support indicators and positive assessments of the country's prospects — and the widespread feeling that the crisis was short-lived and limited in its influence. Russia.Post: sociologists, historians, and political scientists discuss Russia after the invasion of Ukraine Slowing growth and high global inflation are affecting low-income countries the most, but developed economies are also feeling the hurt, reports by the OECD and the European Investment Bank show Counter-Reform Fallout: British analysts believe that the failures of Russian Intelligence in Ukraine are connected to the way the FSB evolved under Putin The "Genocide" Controversy: the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights have attempted to define whether Russian invasion of Ukraine is genocidal in character By end of year personal incomes could fall by 7–12%, purchase of durable goods will decline and savings will become less attractive 181 Blocked Media, 150 Criminal Cases and 59 New Foreign Agents: Russian human rights activists published a report on wartime repressions 70% of German economists believe that tariffs on Russian oil and gas imports are more effective than the embargo. Survey by the ifo Institute The Law Against Trading with Autocracies: most German economists consider it inconvenient, but necessary Slowdown in Global Growth and Inflation on the Rise: Is the world in for a long-term stagflation? World Bank forecast Six Crisis Channels: the Central Bank economists assessed the effect of sanctions on the financial sector The Decline Gains Momentum: April’s outputs have fallen in seven out of nine sectors of the Russian economy Mediazona discovered 60 tons of parcels sent by Russian soldiers from Ukraine back home, to small towns with a lower standard of living Summertime Optimism: May PMI Indexes Escaped "the Negative Zone" — Mainly Due to Businessmen's Hopes That Demand Would Grow Import cuts will cost the Russian economy 4–10% of GDP, while China will only partially replace trade supply from advanced economies, says Bank of Finland Analytics Center Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC" User Migration: In three months of war and restrictions by the government social networks in Russia lost 10% of regular contributors and 8% daily content Reversible Justice: Jury acquittals are on the rise, but the verdicts are being increasingly overturned Commanders of the Invasion: an Investigation by Proekt Media Presented a Portrait of Russian Army Leadership Waging a War in Ukraine The Geopolitical Polygon: why India would not join sanctions against Moscow "Responsibility to Protect" or "License to Attack": the justification for the Russian aggression against Ukraine once again raises questions about the interpretation of "Sovereignty" and the conditions for its violation
— every week
The Conservation Effect The dominant perception in Russia has been that the impact of sanctions is insignificant: in addition to the public optimism of officials and major CEOs, a positive attitude is widespread among the people and a significant part of the business community. Sergey Aleksashenko, Oleg Buklemishev, Oleg Vyugin, Kirill Rogov and Yulia Starostina discuss how sanctions actually work and how they do not, and why the country's ability to resist them maximizes its long-term losses.