Ukraine

16.06 Ukraine Analytics The Dilemma of Resistance: Ukrainians are not ready to relinquish sovereignty over the territories they have held after three years of war, polls show Volodymyr Zelensky’s intransigence during consultations regarding possible compromises, which provoked dissatisfaction from Trump, reflects not so much his personal stance as the prevailing sentiment within Ukrainian society. Polls show that Ukrainians reject concessions based on the American model of 'peaceful settlement,' and even more so those following the Russian scenario. 11.06 Ukraine Analytics The Crisis of Military Keynesianism: Ukraine's economy, after a phase of military adaptation, faces almost the same problems as Russia's In 2023–2024, Ukraine’s economy showed reasonably good performance thanks to substantial Western aid, a partial recovery in exports, and the effect of 'military Keynesianism.' The macroeconomic trajectory resembled that of Russia – growth following a shock. By the end of 2024, growth rates began to decline. 28.03 Polls Analytics No One Believes Trump: In both Ukraine and Russia, citizens do not trust his peacekeeping initiatives, but hope to use them for their own purposes Ukrainians support Trump's initiative for a 30-day ceasefire; however, most see this support as merely a tactical move. 80% of Ukrainians reject the Kremlin's ultimatum demands and believe that in the event of a cessation of US aid, they should continue resisting with support from Europe alone. 29.01 Ukraine Analytics Weak Link: Frontline instability and lack of manpower are becoming a key factor weakening Ukraine's bargaining position with the Kremlin ​​The Ukrainian leadership needs to rethink its approach to conscription incentives, troop management and restore trust in its own efforts in military development and front stabilisation. Meanwhile, Ukrainian society must realise that the current frontline crisis is becoming one of the defining factors of Ukraine's post-war future. 14.01 Ukraine Analytics Legitimate but Unpromising: Ukraine is entering a new political cycle in which the military will be popular and members of Zelensky's team unpopular The Ukrainian political class is anticipating presidential elections as early as this year – it seems they have become one of the points of the Trump-Putin deal regarding Ukraine. Public opinion polls indicate that the leader of the presidential race will be former Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, and his party, if formed, is likely to become the leading force in the parliamentary elections. 31.10.24 Ukraine Analytics After The Rally: Ukrainian society is disillusioned with the government and politicians, while attempts to force Ukraine into an unfavourable peace could lead to a collapse of trust in Zelensky and a political crisis, polls show Ukrainian society has not lost its will to resist Russian aggression, but it has definitively moved past the ‘rally around the flag’ effect that characterised the early stages of the war. As a result, its perspective on the situation in the country, the actions of the government, and Ukrainian politicians in general is becoming increasingly critical. 24.09.24 Ukraine Analytics Space for Compromise and The Nature of Intransigence: Why the majority of Ukrainians still oppose ‘peace talks’ Although over the past year the proportion of Ukrainians who consider negotiations and territorial concessions inevitable has significantly increased, the majority still oppose them: peace without reliable security guarantees from the West is meaningless, as it will inevitably be followed by another Russian attack, Ukrainians believe. 21.06.24 Ukraine Analytics Extraordinary Legitimacy: Amid protracted war, demand for accountability in Ukraine has increased, but this is a sign of normalisation, not crisis The 'rally around the flag' effect in Ukrainian society continues to weaken, and Zelensky's rating continues to decline. The weakening of Zelensky's 'extraordinary' legitimacy is, however, not a sign of crisis, but a return to normality. In the context of a protracted war, the demand for accountability in Ukraine has increased, and the government will have to reckon with it. 17.04.24 Ukraine Review Reforms and Money: Ukraine will need $1 trillion for reconstruction, but the main problem is not the money, but the success of structural reforms 23.02.24 Ukraine Review Victory and Defeat: Zaluzhny's resignation makes Volodymyr Zelensky's extension of his presidential term at the end of May 2024 more problematic 17.01.24 Ukraine Analytics Off-Road Rally: How to meet the growing demand for political renewal in Ukraine when holding elections is impossible? How can you ensure democratic process in a country during a protracted war, when the ratings of incumbent politicians are declining and it is virtually impossible to hold legitimate elections? Experts advise Ukraine to return to reforms that were frozen following Russia’s invasion. 06.12.23 Ukraine Review Winter is Coming: Public mood in Ukraine as winter approaches 02.11.23 Ukraine Analytics Transformation of Identities: The war has reshaped Ukrainian political geography, but the issues at its core remain unchanged Russian military aggression has prompted a reevaluation of traditional Ukrainian political-geographical identities and to the disappearance of political parties and platforms that once represented the Russian-speaking residents of the southeast. However, solidarity in the face of the enemy does not mean that residents of the southeast have accepted the concept of linguistic and cultural Ukrainian homogeneity. 20.10.23 Ukraine Analytics Fighting Exhaustion: Cracks in Ukrainian public opinion will demand new strategies from the country’s political leadership A 'war of attrition' implies the depletion not only of human and military resources but also of the mobilisation potential of society. The Ukrainian public still shows a strong determination to fight for victory and is stoically enduring economic hardship; however, according to the polls, there is an increasingly notable trend towards fatigue within Ukrainian society. 06.09.23 Ukraine Review Ukrainian Resilience: Fatigue and frustration are on the rise, but the will to resist remains strong, polls show 13.06.23 Ukraine Review Borders of Peace: Only 10% of Ukrainians are prepared to settle for 'peace in exchange for territory', but around 30% might consider a return to February 2022 demarcation lines, surveys show 31.01.23 War Review Hidden by the Fog of War: assessing the number of civilian casualties in Ukraine 15.12.22 Ukraine Review Post-War Reforms In Ukraine Will Be Aimed At Broad Integration With The EU And Non-Cooperation With Russia 14.12.22 Ukraine Review De-Russification Of Ukraine: Russian aggression became the major factor in the consolidation of Ukraine as a nation-state 19.10.22 Polls Review Despite War Fatigue, Ukrainian Society Not Polarised on Key Issue: its occupied territories must be returned