European Balance: The far-right lacks the power to change Europe's trajectory, but has enough to make it inconsistent and indecisive

The results of the European Parliament elections brought several surprises. The anticipated surge of the far-right seems to have mobilised centrist voters. As a result, centrist party factions, which previously formed the informal coalition of the current European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, secured 407 out of 720 seats – 46 more than required for the election of the Commission President.This is 10 seats fewer than the coalition held in the previous assembly. The Christian Democrats of von der Leyen's European People's Party (EPP) will increase their seats from 176 to 189. The Socialists (S&D) will have 135 seats (down from 139), and the Liberals (Renew) will have 83 seats (down from 102). Alongside the Liberals, the main losers of the election were the Greens, whose faction will shrink from 72 to 50 deputies.

The far-right, on the other hand, strengthened their position but did not gain as much as the most pessimistic forecasts had suggested. There is only one major exception to this – France. ‘Marine Le Pen's National Rally received over 30%, while the presidential party Renaissance received less than 15%. In many countries, voting in the European Parliament elections is seen as a kind of vote of confidence in the ruling coalition. For this reason, Emmanuel Macron has already announced early parliamentary elections in the country. However, there is a political calculation behind such a quick decision: Macron clearly believes that the results of the far-right in France will alarm and mobilise the centrist electorate.

In general, it was believed that the right-wing would increase its representation in the factions of the ‘European Conservatives and Reformists’ (ECR) and ‘Identity and Democracy’ (ID) from 118 to 144 seats. Currently, according to preliminary data, they have 131 seats. However, at least 50 more seats were won by far-right members not affiliated with these two factions. Thus, the far-right wing as a whole will hold 25% of the seats, as predicted.

Preliminary results of the European Parliament elections, 2024

Source: European Parliament

The election results indicate that the core countries for the far-right in Europe remain Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, and Italy, with France now joining them. In these countries, the far-right secured over a third (and in some countries, more than half) of the national quota seats. In Poland and Hungary, however, their position has weakened somewhat compared to the last elections. In Italy and France, however, their position has strengthened. The Netherlands, Belgium, Austria, and Germany form the second tier of far-right support, where far-right candidates received between 20% and 30% of seats, and they have strengthened their position everywhere compared to the previous vote.

As we have previously written, these results will not change the trajectory of the EU, but will have a significant impact on the configurations of the ad hoc coalitions in the European Parliament (→ Re:Russia: Rightward Tilt) and the general trend of European politics. At the same time, the agendas promoted by the left-wing parties, especially the ‘green transition’ programme, will suffer. The outcome of the elections is also a signal that the deepening of European integration, which has been much discussed recently in the context of strengthening Europe’s geopolitical position, confrontation with Russia and assistance to Ukraine, remains a largely polarising issue (→ Re:Russia: Europe at Different Speeds). The most sensitive issue is that the greatest success of the far-right occurred in two key EU countries: France and Germany.

Thus, while it is positive and expected news that the main direction of European policy will not change, this is also the anticipated and unpleasant news that Europe will still lack the ability to implement it consistently. Most likely, out of fear of further strengthening the far-right flank, the centrist coalition, which has retained its position, will be extremely cautious about decisions on a drastic increase in defence spending, a consolidation of EU defence and military policy, and a strengthening of its political institutions.