Democracy is in crisis. This is clear from the results of a Pew Research Centre study, which surveyed almost 31,000 people in 24 countries in 2023. The list includes countries where democracy is at least somewhat functional, excluding clear autocracies. Of the democracies surveyed, 10 are European countries, five are non-European developed countries (the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea and Japan), and the rest are middle-income, i.e. less affluent, countries from Asia, Latin America and Africa.
Representative democracy remains the preferred form of governance in all these countries, and by a significant margin: an average of 77% of respondents approve of it (hereafter, median values are used throughout), while 20% disapprove. Additionally, 70% of respondents considered direct democracy a good form of governance. The system where experts govern (technocracy) ranked third in popularity, with 58% approval and 36% disapproval. Authoritarianism (rule by a 'strong leader') would be supported by 26% of respondents, and military rule by 15%.
There is no talk of a total shift towards authoritarianism. However, the trends for democracy are unfavourable. Disappointment in representative democracy has significantly increased over the last six years, as indicated by the survey: in the 13 countries where the same question was asked in 2017, the share of those who described this form of government as 'very good' fell by 8 percentage points. Moreover, the leaders in terms of this decline (9-13 percentage points) are countries that are considered strongholds of democracy: Sweden, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Germany. Kenya, India, and Nigeria also experienced a decrease of 11–13 points. Opponents of representative democracy are more prevalent in Southern Europe (20% or more respondents in Spain, France, Italy, Greece), and in South Africa and Brazil, they make up around 30%.
Against the backdrop of this decline, support for technocratic rule has increased. Compared to 2017, the preference for technocracy increased by 12 percentage points. This somewhat unexpected result is attributed by Pew Research experts to the pandemic, during which key decisions were based on medical statistics: they note that those who believe their governments handled the pandemic well are more inclined to trust technocratic governance. The highest trust in technocracy is found in India (increased from 65% to 82%), Mexico (from 53% to 73%), and Hungary (from 68% to 80%).
Autocracy (rule by a 'strong leader' who can make decisions without the involvement of courts or parliament) is not particularly popular in most of the countries surveyed. However, two unfavourable trends are apparent. In India, authoritarianism is attractive to 57% of people surveyed. In Indonesia, Kenya, Mexico, and South Africa, it seems like a viable option for approximately half of those surveyed. Clearly, autocracy appears attractive in the poorest countries in this sample. However, they were also relatively poor six years ago, but since that time the number of those who would support autocracy has risen from 26% to 50% in Mexico, from 39% to 52% in Kenya, and from 55% to 67% in India.In other words, in Global South countries, trust in representative governance is decreasing, while support for autocracy is growing. The second trend is that in some developed and affluent countries, the proportion of supporters of a 'strong leader' is increasing: in South Korea from 23% to 35%, in Germany from 6% to 16%, and in Poland from 15% to 25%.
The Pew Research study partly answers the question of what is wrong with democracy and why it is in crisis. In only seven of the 24 countries surveyed more than half of those surveyed were satisfied with how democracy is working. Overall, almost 60% were dissatisfied and only 40% satisfied. However, these figures need to be viewed critically. In democratic countries, people are much less satisfied with their politicians, institutions, and the economy than in authoritarian ones. In these countries, everything is constantly under the scrutiny of opposition parties and the media, while in authoritarian countries opposition politicians and independent media are banned in order to prevent citizens from demanding more than is being provided by the autocrat.
However, Pew Research data also shows that satisfaction with democracy has been declining in recent years in 18 of the countries in the sample, and in some of them, this decline is quite significant. It is down 14 percentage points in France compared to 2019, 15 in South Korea, 8 in Germany, 15 in Canada, 15 in South Africa, and 12 in Kenya. These results are confirmed by other data. A survey by the European Council on Foreign Affairs (ECFR; which Re:Russia previously covered in detail here), for example, showed that 47% of Europeans believe that the EU political system is either completely or partially dysfunctional. At the same time, 55% of respondents in the EU described the political system in their country as dysfunctional, and in the US this figure was 48%.
Almost three quarters of respondents said that their elected politicians are disconnected from the interests of their constituents. In the US, Argentina and Spain, more than 80% think so, while in Germany more than 60% share this sentiment. 42% see no party that represents their interests. In the United States, the United Kingdom, Brazil, Mexico, and South Korea, this figure is around 50%, while in Italy, France, Spain, and Argentina, it reaches around 60%. Voters on the right side of the political spectrum feel slightly more represented, and centrists feel their lack of representation particularly strongly. Distrust in the political class appears to be a particularly acute problem. To address this situation, those on the left would like to see more women, individuals from less affluent backgrounds, and representatives of trade unions among elected politicians. Those on the right are more inclined to seek a solution among businesspeople and religious leaders.
In general, it can be said that in developed and richer countries, disillusionment with democracy, based on low trust in elected politicians, is a noticeable trend. At the same time, support for non-democratic governance, although tending to grow, remains marginal. In the democracies of the Global South, dissatisfaction with their democracies was at a relatively high level for some time, so it has not decreased significantly in recent years. However, now, against the background of general disillusionment with democracy in the world (including in its strongholds), this dissatisfaction is transforming in such countries into the growing popularity of non-democratic forms of government — systems with a 'strong leader' or military dictatorship. About 70% of those surveyed in India and Indonesia, about 60% in Mexico, and 36-46% in South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Brazil and Argentina see the latter as a workable option for their country's political system.