'Age of Conflict' is the title of this year's Democracy Index, published annually by The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research and analysis arm of The Economist Group. The number of interstate wars, cross-border military invasions, civil wars, Islamist and jihadist uprisings, attacks on military bases and commercial shipping has been increasing in recent years, adversely affecting democratic procedures around the world. Since 2006, the EIU has been evaluating 167 countries and territories on a ten-point scale, categorising them into 'full democracies,' 'flawed democracies,' 'hybrid regimes,' and 'authoritarian regimes’. The latest report, published on 15 February and analysing data for 2023, shows that less than 8% of the world's population live in full democracies and almost 40% live in autocracies (39.4%; in the previous year's report this was 36.9%).
Only 32 countries improved their scores from last year, although the improvements were most often minimal and occurred against a low baseline. Democracy deteriorated in 68 countries, while the rankings of another 67 remained unchanged (a country's score is based on its average score in five categories: electoral process and pluralism, government functioning, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties). Overall, this data indicates a continuing trend towards stagnation and regression of democracy worldwide (on some of the factors behind this → Re: Russia: Trust in Politicians, Polarisation and the Reversal of Authoritarianism). The average value of the index fell from 5.29 in 2022 to 5.23 in 2023 — the worst result in the entire monitoring period. Unfree countries saw the most significant decline: the average score for 'authoritarian regimes' decreased by 0.12 over the year, and 'hybrid regimes' by 0.07. The decrease in the average score for 'full democracies' (by 0.01) and 'flawed democracies' (by 0.03) was not as significant. In other words, the main trend was the strengthening of autocracies, which became more repressive and less free. African countries, such as Gabon and Niger, where coups occurred in 2023, as well as Mali and Sudan, made the most significant contributions to this trend.
In general, moving from one 'regime' category to another in the EIU index is a rare event, and this year only six countries achieved this. Greece returned to the group of full democracies, while Chile, on the contrary, left it. Papua New Guinea and Paraguay moved from the 'hybrid regimes' category to 'flawed democracies'. Angola shifted from 'authoritarian' to 'hybrid’. The reverse occurred in Pakistan, which dropped 11 positions in the ranking and became an autocracy. For the first time since the Democracy Index was launched in 2006, Western Europe overtook North America, but this was primarily due to a significant deterioration in Canada's ranking (from 8.88 in 2022 to 8.69 in 2023). 71% of Western European countries included in the index are ranked as full-fledged democracies. In all other regions, democracy scores have declined. The average score for sub-Saharan Africa fell to its lowest level since monitoring began. However, the most significant decline was observed in Latin America, with its democracy score dropping for the eighth consecutive year. The Democracy Index worsened in 16 of the region's 24 countries. El Salvador, where Nayib Bukele secured a constitutional change to be elected president for a second time, performed the worst in the region.
The war in Ukraine and renewed tensions in the Middle East, the civil war in Sudan and Azerbaijan's aggression in Nagorno-Karabakh, Islamist rebels in the Sahel and the Guyana-Venezuela crisis — all these events have had a negative impact in 2023 on the state of democratic procedures in all the affected countries. For example, in 2021, EIU experts categorised Ukraine as a 'hybrid regime', but with the outbreak of war, President Volodymyr Zelensky concentrated power in the country in his hands, and martial law restricted the freedom of Ukrainian media. As a result, Ukraine's rating fell from 5.42 in 2022 to 5.06 in 2023, and the country dropped from 87th to 91st in the global rankings. Russia's already low score dropped by 0.06 to 2.22 for the year, and the country now ranks 144th.
The countries that experienced conflicts in 2022-2023 are mainly categorised as 'authoritarian' and 'hybrid' regimes. All 24 'full-fledged democracies' were conflict-free, while 'imperfect democracies' are characterised by both internal and external conflicts: Israel is at war with Hamas, India periodically faces outbreaks of violence involving separatist regions and religious minorities, and internal conflicts claim numerous lives annually in Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Jamaica. However, the frequency and scale of war and conflict are much higher among 'hybrid' and 'authoritarian' regimes, which contributes to their lower index scores: in 2022-2023, wars, conflicts or clashes were observed in 24 out of 34 'hybrid' regimes and in at least 40 out of 59 'authoritarian' regimes. Thus, although the demand for autocracy is often justified by the desire for 'firm order', in general, autocracies turn out to be no less conflict-prone than 'hybrid' regimes.
However, the EIU experts caution against embracing the theory of democratic peace — the notion that democracies do not wage war with one another. While democracies, especially established ones, do not go to war with each other, they often initiate conflicts with non-democratic and 'hybrid' regimes. On the one hand, they feel threatened by these countries, and on the other hand, they create a sense of threat for them. This confrontation, the key stage for which has been set by the rivalry between the US and China, worsens the situation with democracy in both geopolitical camps.
2024 could well be a triumphant year for democracy, as more people will vote in national elections around the world this year than at any other time in world history. However, experts believe that only 43 of the more than 70 elections in 2024 can be called free and fair. Elections in the US, Brazil, India and Indonesia (all classified as 'flawed democracies') theoretically allow for the possibility of change, although the incumbent authorities or their successors are likely to win in all these countries. If the US election comes down to a fight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump (which seems the most likely scenario), the country will be even more divided.
Last year, Re:Russia wrote that according to Freedom House's data on the state of freedom in the world, 34 countries showed improvement in the situation of civil and political freedoms, while 35 witnessed deterioration, and this was the best balance seen in the past decade and a half. In light of this, Freedom House analysts speculated that we might be witnessing a reversal of the trend of declining democracy or, at the very least, a slowdown in the authoritarian offensive. However, Re:Russia's analysis at the time showed that such conclusions were premature and that some improvement within one year was within the statistical margin of error. The results of the new Freedom House report on the state of freedom in the world confirm these conclusions: the situation with political rights and civil liberties deteriorated in 52 countries over the past year, with improvements recorded in only 21 countries. Overall, the global freedom rating continues to decline for the 18th consecutive year.
The experts from Freedom House highlight the widespread practice of electoral manipulation, which became one of the main reasons for the global decrease in freedom levels in 2023. Electoral manipulation led to downgrades in 26 countries. In Guatemala, Thailand and Zimbabwe, attempts were made to prevent winning candidates and parties from coming to power. Attempts to limit electoral competition by creating an uneven playing field for the opposition were observed in elections in Cambodia, Poland and Turkey. Ecuador was downgraded from free to partly free as criminal organisations managed to disrupt elections there by assassinating several officials and candidates. To date, experts assign minimal scores for indicators of free and fair elections to 35 countries. In 2005, when the global decline in freedom levels began, there were only 21 such countries.
Freedom House, like EIU, notes that armed conflicts and aggression by autocrats make the world less democratic and safe. Nagorno-Karabakh, due to aggression by Azerbaijan, has suffered the largest decline in freedom in the history of observation and has moved from the category of 'partly free' to 'not free' countries. Autocrats also continue to suppress freedoms in disputed territories. This is evident in the Russian regime's repression of the Crimean population and Chinese campaigns to suppress the remnants of freedoms in Hong Kong and Tibet. Repression in disputed territories has mostly been carried out by authoritarian regimes, but the democratically elected governments of Israel and India have also been complicit in this over the past year. These include human rights violations in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, as well as in Indian-administered Kashmir.
Thus, Freedom House's analysis largely echoes the conclusions of EIU. On one hand, there is a significant decline in the stability of the world order — an increase in the number of disputed territories, contested jurisdictions, and areas where recognised states have no real authority. This conflict-ridden environment contributes to autocratisation. Moreover, the desire to manipulate elections and falsify their results is simultaneously growing. This trend is also partly related to the polarisation and weakening of the international order, with the result that governments are much less concerned about the 'international recognition' of their elections.