Fear and The Market: How the ‘publishers’ case’ could usher in censorship and reshape the book industry

The ‘publishers’ case': fear and the market

Last week's events, already dubbed the ‘Publishers’ Case’ – detentions and searches involving 11 individuals connected to the publishing houses Individuum, Popcorn Books and Eksmo, and criminal charges carrying heavy sentences against three of them – have sent shockwaves through Russian society. Even by the repressive standards of present-day Russia, these developments stand out as particularly alarming.

These events were preceded by an assault by security forces on some of Russia’s cult bookshops in Moscow, St Petersburg and Novosibirsk: Falanster, Podpisnye Izdelia and Karta Mira during March and April. In the summer of 2024, security forces had already carried out raids on bookstores, but those earlier actions focused on checking compliance with labelling regulations for books by 'foreign agents.' The more recent raids appear to have targeted LGBT-themed literature in particular. However, authorities simultaneously raised concerns about a much broader range of books unrelated to LGBT topics. According to media reports, officers at Podpisnye Izdaniya demanded the removal of books by journalists Valery Panyushkin and Sergey Parkhomenko, a novel by Vladimir Sorokin, and several others. As a result, Falanster now faces administrative proceedings for alleged cooperation with an 'undesirable organisation', while Podpisnye Izdaniya has been accused of 'promoting non-traditional sexual relations'.

These acts of pressure, which resulted in administrative penalties, were alarming but not extraordinary. However, the decision to charge employees of Popcorn Books and Individuum, including one of the managers, Dmitry Protopopov, sales director Pavel Ivanov, and Artyom Vakhlyaev, responsible for warehousing and distribution, with 'organising the activities of an extremist organisation' (Article 282.2 of the Russian Criminal Code) falls well outside the regime’s usual repressive practices. The so-called extremist organisation in question is the non-existent 'International LGBT Public Movement', and the maximum sentence under Article 282.2 is 12 years. Until now, criminal cases of this severity were typically brought against those staging public anti-war protests or individuals connected to the 'extremist' structures associated with Alexei Navalny. The unexpected nature of the 'Publishers' Case' as a break from standard repressive patterns is noted by the authors of a letter from the Russian Book Union: under current legislation, LGBT-related 'propaganda' issues are dealt with administratively, typically through fines based on expert evaluations. Until now, criminal proceedings in such matters have not been part of standard legal practice, they write.

According to the human rights group First Department, the substance of the case concerns the alleged distribution of 900 copies of ten books said to 'promote LGBT ideology', published between 2019 and 2022, that is, before the most draconian version of the LGBT legislation came into force. The books in question belong to the young adult (YA) genre and feature varying degrees of queer-themed content, according to an analysis by Meduza. YA is currently one of the most commercially successful niches in the book market, including works by Anna Jane, the pen name of the late Anna Potapkina, Russia’s top-selling author, and by the bestselling foreign writer in Russia, Chinese author Mo Xiang Tong Xiu. According to the 2024 All-Russian Book Ranking, YA, comics, and manga together account for roughly a third of the top 50 bestsellers in the Russian market. Queer YA, which addresses themes of sexual and gender identity, forms one segment of this field. The widely popular Summer in a Pioneer Tie by Elena Malisova and Katerina Silvanova, part of this subgenre, was a breakout hit in 2022.

In this context, the substance of the 'Publishers’ Case' contains nothing that fundamentally challenges the regime. Its basis lies more in commercial routine: previously published books, including the infamous Summer in a Pioneer Tie, continued to circulate within the distribution network and were quietly being sold. This is supported by a second, and notably marked as such, letter from Eksmo to distributors and retailers, requesting that they dispose of previously published books listed in an attached document, which closely resembles the list used by law enforcement.

However, the case has far deeper implications. It illustrates how practices and mechanisms are being developed to introduce the institutions of a 'closed society' in Russia – where repressive ideological control extends further into various areas of cultural and intellectual life.

In December last year, in a Re:Russia report on state pressure on the publishing industry and the market’s efforts to resist it, we wrote about the Russian authorities’ aim to institutionalise censorship, and the challenges they face in doing so: the absence of clear boundaries between ideologically acceptable and unacceptable content, the lack of a centralised censorship body, the commercial and market-driven nature of publishing, and the porousness of information borders(→ Re:Russia: Fahrenheit 451°). The spring 2025 crackdown on bookshops and publishers has showcased the regime’s evolving strategies for overcoming these obstacles and enforcing the standards of a closed, ideocratic society.

The criminal cases against publishers and distributors are clearly intended as a form of intimidation aimed at the market – a point acknowledged by most of its participants. The authorities’ goal is to use this case to demonstrate to publishers and the distribution system the potentially enormous cost of prioritising commercial interests. After all, any profit motive quickly fades in the face of a possible 10–12-year prison sentence. The fear outweighs the market incentive.

The shadow of repression, the ‘grey zone’ and norms of self-censorship

It is clear that any act of intimidation, that is, terror in the literal sense of the word, which the 'Publishers' Case' certainly is, targets society at large and is primarily intended to enforce new norms of self-restraint and self-censorship. Its purpose is to instill two key messages: first, that minor commercial gains are not worth the accompanying risks; and second, that distributors are just as responsible for content as publishers – they are not merely intermediaries. In effect, this seeks to turn them into active filters for controlling distributed content.

The topic of LGBT 'propaganda' serves as a heavy-handed brand, a kind of battering ram, but it is no coincidence that security forces, during their raids, also raised objections to a broader range of 'unreliable' books, even though they had no legal grounds to do so. The frightening power of such terror lies in its expansive shadow: the excessive liability imposed on the accused leads to an overcorrection in the form of self-censorship by others in the industry. The result is the emergence of a large 'grey zone' of suspect literature in the market’s repertoire.

Publishers and distributors are increasingly avoiding books and authors with 'questionable' histories or undesirable statuses, as well as titles touching on topics now perceived as risky, says Felix Sandalov, director of the Straightforward Foundation and former editor-in-chief at the very same publisher, Individuum, speaking to Re:Russia. And that list of sensitive topics is expanding – it now includes, for instance, the history of the USSR and the Second World War, especially when written by European historians. Publishers are now having to assess such content not just on editorial merit but on potential legal risk.

The expansion of the 'grey zone' is being fuelled by various 'denunciations' which often result in law enforcement being dispatched to book-related events. The mere possibility of such interventions forces literary institutions to alter their public programmes. For instance, after receiving a tip-off, the Perm-based Piotrovsky bookshop’s Yekaterinburg branch, located within the Yeltsin Centre, cancelled a scheduled talk by architect Polina Ivanova. Similarly, Falanster cancelled the launch of Kirill Medvedev’s book Antifascism for All.

The lack of clear boundaries within this 'grey zone' is a particularly demoralising factor for those in the book trade. Shortly after security forces visited the St Petersburg bookstore Podpisnye Izdaniya, the website of the House of Writers, which is affiliated with the Writers’ Union, published a 'manual' disguised as a recommendation from the city’s Press Committee. The guide, which drew attention from the Fontanka publication, offered advice to distributors on how to avoid trouble with the security forces. Among other things, it contains a special section entitled ‘grey zone,’ listing 'unreliable' authors who had expressed political views either on social media or at public events.

The black knight of the book market and the institutionalisation of censorship

However, the consequences of the crackdown on bookshops, distributors and publishers extend beyond simply instilling 'self-censorship' among market players. They point to a fundamental shift in the rules governing the entire book industry, particularly if these events are viewed not as isolated incidents but within the broader context of an unfolding bureaucratic intrigue.

The first milestone came in February this year, when Vladimir Medinsky was unexpectedly elected chairman of the seemingly defunct Soviet-era Writers’ Union. According to an RBC source in the book industry, this surprise manoeuvre stemmed from 'the authorities’ increasing interest in the sector', and the perceived need for 'a strong ideological figure who could unite book professionals and establish a dialogue with the state'. The next step came at the end of March, during a meeting of the Presidential Council for Culture and Art held at the end of March. At this meeting, a representative of the Writers’ Union (its former chairman, now Medinsky’s deputy) proposed transferring oversight of the book industry from the Ministry of Digital Development to the Ministry of Culture.

The Ministry of Digital Development had functioned more as a libertarian-technocratic body, focused on financial flows and market stimulation, thereby allowing a degree of self-governance, says Sandalov. By contrast, the Ministry of Culture is likely to engage in direct ideological supervision of the sector.

'‘Patriots’ have long been dissatisfied with how the Ministry of Digital Development handles the publishing industry,' confirms Novaya Gazeta columnist Karl Romal, referring to the ideological dimension of the shift. The idea of handing control of the book market over to the Ministry of Culture had been floated at various forums throughout the previous year, including the Russian Book Union Congress. Yet both the Ministry of Digital Development and market participants predictably resisted the proposal, explains the Novaya Gazeta author. However, on 7 May, a month and a half after the March meeting, the president's website published instructions from the president based on the meeting's conclusions, including a directive to the government to ‘submit proposals on the transfer to the Ministry of Culture of Russia of state functions and powers for the development and implementation of state policy and regulatory and legal regulation in the field of literary and publishing activities.’

The reasons for resistance from market participants, including major players, are easy to understand. Ideological oversight would erode potentially profitable genres – such as queer YA – and replace them with low-yield, unpopular spiritual-patriotic content. Deputies, represented by the chair of the Duma Committee on the Development of Civil Society, Yana Lantratova, are already putting forward such initiatives. Lantratova also advocates handing book oversight to the Ministry of Culture and establishing a new body under it that would 'conduct assessments and develop recommendations for publishers.' She also demands that publishers be 'held accountable for destructive content' and calls for quotas requiring bookshops to allocate at least 30% of shelf space to domestic literature.

Following the 'Publishers’ Case', which involves current and former employees of Eksmo (which has owned Popcorn Books and Individuum since autumn 2023), market participants’ views may be shifting, according to another Re:Russia source within the Russian book industry. 'The rise in repression is effectively pushing the book market into censorship’s embrace: given a choice between the Investigative Committee and a censor, any publisher will choose the latter. Now, market players themselves are the ones most interested in establishing a censorship body under the Ministry of Culture – one that would at least set rules and procedures, and thus offer ‘protection’ from activist denunciations and security force interventions. The current climate is such that the desires of ‘patriots’ and those of publishers are beginning to align. This makes the institutionalisation of censorship not only plausible, but perhaps inevitable,' the source concludes.

The book market in detail

The Russian book market is of a fairly substantial size. In 2024, its total volume reached approximately 133 billion roubles. Final figures are yet to be confirmed (they will be published in the Ministry of Digital Development’s year-end report), but according to data from the CEO of the publishing house Eksmo, Evgeny Kapiev, market sales of printed books rose to 98 billion roubles this year (up from 91 billion in 2023), while sales of digital editions, according to the market leader LitRes, reached 18.9 billion roubles (compared to 14.5 billion in 2023). In addition to this, there is the public procurement segment for schools, universities, and libraries: as shown in an industry report by the Ministry of Digital Development, this segment has remained relatively stable over recent years, totalling around 16 billion roubles.

Thus, the market segment grew by 12.6% in 2024, which when adjusted for inflation indicates market stagnation (official inflation in 2024 stood at nearly 10%, though in the book sector it likely exceeded the national average). According to the Book Chamber, the total print run of books and brochures amounted to 369.5 million copies, 10% more than the previous year, but still only 94% of the 2022 level and 85% of the 2019 peak (435.1 million). Roughly half of this volume is educational literature. The share of fiction increased over the past year, exceeding 17% of the total print run. In 2023, 36% of all published books came from Prosveshchenie, the de facto monopoly in the educational literature sector, according to the Ministry of Digital Development’s market review. Another 22.5% was accounted for by the largest publishing group, Eksmo-AST.

Two major trends are shaping the market: the rapid growth of digital book sales and the increasing dominance of online marketplaces. According to LitRes, digital book sales rose by 30% in 2024 compared to 2023, following a 37% increase from 2022 to 2023. However, their share of the market still barely exceeds 16%. In 2023, online sales of printed books surpassed 50% of total market volume for the first time, and by the end of 2024, that figure had reached 54.4%, according to ‘The Russian Book Market: Key Takeaways of 2024’, a report by Book Industry magazine. In contrast, physical bookshops, which accounted for 67% of pre-pandemic commercial turnover (excluding public procurement and digital books) shrunk to just 38% in 2024. This is largely due to the fact that books in brick-and-mortar shops are 30–70% more expensive than on marketplaces. As a result, 220 bookshops closed in 2024; this is 2.5 times more than in the previous year.

The book market is under pressure from rising production costs, which have increased by 15%, according to Book Industry. Sanctions have contributed significantly to this growth, writes Vladimir Kharitonov in an article included in the collection ‘Rhinos in the bookshop’. For example, Chinese printing machines are markedly inferior to their European counterparts in both productivity and quality. Meanwhile, Russian printing houses still source thread for bookbinding from Germany, albeit now through intermediaries and roundabout routes, making the process lengthier and more expensive. Previously, the average production time for a book was about one and a half months; now, it has doubled, due to both issues with printing equipment and the need to check books for compliance with Russian legislation. According to Kharitonov, the actual increase in production costs in 2024 was not 15%, but closer to 20%. On top of all this, the market faces the threat of the looming abolition of the preferential VAT rate (10% instead of 18%) – the government, facing budget shortfalls, is prepared to sacrifice the book industry. This would be a severe blow, especially to bookshops already under pressure from online competition.

Thus, the market’s prospects are far from bright – except, perhaps, for the e-book segment – but many areas remain a stable source of profit. And where there is profit, there is something to fight over.

Medinsky's formula: censorship, military patriotism and commerce

There is little doubt that the transfer of book market oversight to the Ministry of Culture, along with the creation of an agency responsible for coordination (led, whether formally or behind the scenes, by Vladimir Medinsky) will lead to major changes in the market itself. Especially so, given that this new structure will wield both censorship powers and lobbying tools. The first such change is already underway: the revival of the publishing house Khudozhestvennaya Literatura, once the Soviet Union’s premier publisher of fiction. A directive regarding its 'transfer' to the Writers’ Union, under Medinsky’s leadership, is also included in the presidential orders following the March council meeting.

In addition to censorship, the agency’s efforts will likely focus on increasing the share of 'domestic production', combating 'harmful foreign' influences, and expanding the ideologically patriotic segment of contemporary literature and its presence on bookshop shelves.

Following the withdrawal of many Western authors and issues with copyright after the onset of the war and the introduction of sanctions, the share of Russian authors in publishers’ catalogues has already risen to 68%, according to statistics from the Ministry of Digital Development. However, although Western bestsellers have not yet returned, Russian publishers have learned to license books by European and American authors through intermediary firms in Kazakhstan and Armenia, notes Vladimir Kharitonov. On the other hand, the translated literature market is now growing thanks to novels from Korea and China, manga, and Eastern comics, which, according to Meduza, have contributed an annual growth in print runs of up to 200%. Another growing segment, which has doubled since 2020, is esoterica, which, according to Eksmo, now ranks second among readers’ preferences in the non-fiction category. Whereas earlier the focus was on 'green magic' and Tarot, today the demand is for channelling, prophecy, and 'life quests'. Esoterica is a global trend, particularly popular among Zoomers, confirms Sandalov. 'When people feel they’ve lost control over what’s happening around them, turning to practices that promise to restore control over one’s destiny is a form of psychological protection,' he explains.

Most likely, the efforts of the publishing industry’s lobbyists will aim to find a compromise with the 'patriots' regarding the scale of their demands. At one extreme, which would be a nightmare for the book industry, are proposals such as Lantratova’s, which include reserving a set proportion of shelf space for Russian patriotic literature and establishing mandatory lines of Z-literature.

Z-literature has grown in volume over the three years of war but has failed to win public favour or commercial success. One of the first major Z-literature projects was the RT-published collection Poezia Russkogo Leta (Poetry of the Russian Summer), the second edition of which was released in 2023 by the Eksmo publishing house, with a print run of 2,000 copies. However, mass reach was meant to be achieved through the digital version: on 2 June 2023, tens of millions of users of the 'Gosuslugi' government service received an email offering them a free download of the book. In 2024, the flow of Z-literature grew further: the publishing house Chernaya Sotnya released a two-volume collection Z Text, and Z-themed novels began appearing one after another (some of which were reviewed by Mediazona). A dedicated stand for Z-literature was set up at the Non/fiction book fair. Writers from Zakhar Prilepin’s circle are lobbying for their books to be purchased for libraries and schools, with the support of Putin’s niece Anna Tsivilyova. From a market perspective, Z-literature remains marginal, says Sandalov, whereas the segment of intellectual literature which is potentially vulnerable under the new book policy, accounts for more than 10%, in his view.

Medinsky is likely to act as a mediator between radical patriotic demands and the interests of the major publishing players. Though the latter will probably have to make concessions, invest in military-patriotic content, and tighten the thematic focus of affiliated intellectual publishing houses. In other words, Medinsky will be tasked with shaping an ideologically coherent book market without destroying its commercial viability. In fact, during his previous tenure as Minister of Culture, Medinsky attempted to find that same magical formula for the Russian book market, but that effort was not particularly successful.