Oil

31.10 Oil Analytics Cutting Off The Tail Piece By Piece: As a result of Trump's new sanctions, oil and gas exports may decline by more than 25% in 2026, and the budget could lose more than 1 trillion roubles The introduction of sanctions against Russia’s largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, marked a turning point in Donald Trump’s policy. Having moved away from the idea of tariff pressure, he returned to the sanctions-based approach characteristic of Joe Biden’s administration. This strategy appears less ambitious, but more realistic. 02.09 Oil Review Excess Oil: India's refusal to accept Russian supplies could lead to a moderate budget crisis and stagflation in Russia 27.11.24 Oil Review The Spectre of Surplus Looming Over The Shadow Fleet: The Western coalition has an opportunity to sharply increase the sanctions pressure against Russian oil 21.10.24 Oil Review From Shadow to Light: Why the Western coalition is struggling to significantly limit oil trade above the price cap or to block the shadow fleet 14.10.24 Oil Review The Chinese or The Middle East Factor: Oil prices have barely reacted to the escalation in the Middle East, putting the OPEC+ deal in jeopardy again 19.09.24 Oil Review Chinese Correction: Lower oil prices will not lead to serious budget problems next year, but will increase turbulence in the Russian economy 11.09.24 Oil Analytics Oil Alone: In the first half of 2024, oil offset the decline in Russian non-oil export revenues, but this success will not be repeated in the second half of the year In 2024, Russia's export revenues remain at a comfortable level, comparable to that of last year, solely due to oil – revenues from the exports of other goods are declining. However, now even oil has also started to fall in price. To factor in an increase in expenditures, the government is drafting the budget based on outdated prices. In the best-case scenario, this will result in higher inflation. 29.03.24 Oil Review Pressure Cap: The effectiveness of secondary sanctions and the growth of oil supply create favourable conditions for a possible lowering of the price cap on Russian oil 20.03.24 Oil Review Oil Puzzle: OPEC+ will not abandon its strategy of maintaining high prices despite market share erosion 15.02.24 Sanctions Review Rusty Business: The fight against Russia's shadow fleet may only have a significant impact within conditions of a deficit-free oil market and relatively low prices 01.02.24 Oil Review OPEC minus: Against the backdrop of rising oil production, OPEC+ has lost its leverage on the market, which threatens to break up the alliance between Russia and Saudi Arabia and to significantly reduce Russian oil revenues 15.12.23 Oil Review The 'Victory Budget' May Get Hit by the Electric Car: Oil prices are increasingly at odds with the government's optimistic forecasts 08.12.23 Sanctions Review Prices below the cap: The year that the mechanism to limit Russian oil prices has been in operation has shown its ineffectiveness in its current form 15.11.23 Oil Review Rising oil production outside OPEC+ is challenging Saudi Arabia and Russia’s attempts to manipulate prices 14.09.23 Oil Review Oil to the Rescue: Saudi Arabia is Russia's key ally in its war in Ukraine 21.07.23 Oil Review Keeping under the Price Cap: Sanctions against oil have hit the Russian budget but are still allowing for the accumulation of shadow reserves abroad 19.06.23 Oil Review Oil Peak' Nears as Russia's Market Share Decreases 18.05.23 Oil Review Old Sanctions Have Crumbled New Ones Are Needed: Russia is selling more oil, putting pressure on OPEC+ partners in Asia 20.03.23 Sanctions Review Will Russia have enough money for the war? Oil prices are falling, but the IEA predicts an increase in demand by the end of the year, rendering sanctions ineffective 29.05.22 Sanctions Review Buyers' Cartel: Russian oil consumers need to negotiate lower prices by setting up an "Anti-OPEC"