The decline of democracy in the world is a widely discussed topic in the media and expert community. The latest report of the international V-Dem (Varieties of Democracy) project once again recorded that in 42 countries around the world various indicators characterising the state of the political environment have deteriorated over the past year. The broad trend of democratic 'retreat' was also discussed in last year's V-Dem report, and has been recorded by other projects that track the dynamics of political regimes, such as Freedom House and the Economist Intelligence Unit rating (→ Re: Russia: Crisis of Democracy). As a result, the picture of a total global retreat from democracy and plunge into authoritarianism begins to look almost apocalyptic. However, this does not quite correspond to reality.
According to the classification of the V-Dem project 50 years ago, in the early 1970s, 87 countries around the world were 'closed regimes' (55%), i.e. elections were not even held in them, 36 were electoral autocracies (elections were held but were a formality), another 15 were electoral democracies (the government and the country's trajectory was changed by elections, but civil liberties were not sufficiently ensured) and 20 were liberal democracies. Less than 20% of the world's countries met the criteria for democracy.
Twenty years later, in the early 1990s, the situation had improved dramatically: the number of closed regimes dropped to 50, the number of liberal democracies rose to 30, and the number of electoral democracies rose to 32; another 50 countries were electoral autocracies. That is, the proportion of democracies rose to 40%. Two-thirds of the world's countries became electoral democracies. According to V-Dem, the democratisation trend reached its peak by 2013: the number of liberal democracies rose to 43, the number of electoral democracies to 50, electoral authoritarianisms to 65, and the number of closed regimes fell to 22. The proportion of democratic countries thus reached 52%, with about 90% of countries holding elections.
After this, the situation started to change for the worse. Over the past 10 years, the number of liberal democracies has fallen to 32, the number of closed regimes, on the contrary, has increased to 32. At the same time, the ratio of electoral democracies to electoral autocracies has shifted in favour of the former, to 59 versus 56.
Against the backdrop of the very rapid progress of democracy observed over several decades starting from the 1980s, the picture of the last 10 years is disappointing in several respects. The share of democracies in the world has stopped growing. Moreover, very few countries have managed to become sustainable liberal democracies over the past 50 years (+10). Moreover, a number of countries that seemed to have made this transition have now fallen out of this group. In addition, a crucial point is that the observed regression is not just about the retreat of new or fragile democracies towards authoritarianism. It is also about the erosion or degradation of democratic institutions across the spectrum of political regimes, including in countries with (what were thought to be) stable democracies.
Further, the number of closed regimes has once again increased. Over the past 50 years, however, their share has fallen drastically, even given the rebound of the last decade, from 55% to 18% of the total number of countries observed. The share of electoral regimes in which elections are meaningful has steadily increased (including in the past 10 years), and the share of electoral autocracies has been around one-third of all observed countries for 20 years.
In quantitative terms, the number of authoritarian and democratic countries in the world is now roughly equal, but in terms of population size, the ratio is 70% versus 30% in favour of autocracies. Large and densely populated countries in Asia and Africa are generally not democracies. The economic weight of autocracies has also changed radically, as noted by V-Dem experts in their previous report: in 1992 they (more than 60% of countries) accounted for a quarter of world GDP (24%), in 2012 they accounted for about a third, and in 2023, almost half (46%).
Thus, two key features of the democratic 'rollback' can be identified. First, the fact that a number of countries previously characterised as liberal democracies have ceased to be so, indicates the factors of crisis within liberal democracy itself. Surveys show that residents of democratic countries are becoming disillusioned with the institution of representation — trust in elected politicians is declining. The second key feature is the sharp rise in the economic, and therefore geopolitical, influence of autocracies. In contrast to the situation 50 years ago, they appear more economically prosperous today. Although they lag far behind developed countries in terms of wealth, they show considerable dynamism in overcoming poverty. These two macro trends — declining satisfaction with political institutions in developed countries and growing confidence in the economic policies of autocracies in developing countries — have a significant impact on the struggle between the forces of democratisation and autocratisation at the country level.
Analysing the trends over the past year, the authors of the report note a deterioration in the characteristics of political regimes in 42 countries. The most affected areas are freedom of expression and media, the quality of electoral processes and civil society institutions. For instance, the level of freedom of expression has decreased in 35 countries: states are imposing new restrictions on the dissemination of information, persecuting journalists, limiting the activities of independent media, intensifying state control over the media, and imposing political censorship.
The quality of elections is also deteriorating. In 35 countries, the level of the free and fair elections indicator has declined over the past year. The V-Dem study notes that this was largely due to the undermining of the autonomy of electoral commissions by governments, which was observed in 24 countries in 2023. However, as surveys indicate, disillusionment with representative democracy, characteristic even among residents of democratic countries, is also driving this process. Freedom of association and civil society organisations also remain under attack. In more than 30 countries, government pressure on civil society organisations has been increasing over the past ten years.
At the same time, the onset of autocracy is not total. On the contrary, the situation has been improving in a number of countries. For example, Gambia, Honduras, Montenegro, the Solomon Islands, Timor-Leste and Fiji have transitioned from electoral autocracies to electoral democracies, according to V-Dem criteria. Moreover, in nine countries, the researchers recorded a U-shaped trajectory — the period of de-democratisation has already been replaced by a reverse process. This group of countries includes Benin, Bolivia, Brazil, North Macedonia, Thailand and Tunisia. The level of democracy in this group is still lower than when the process of authoritarian backsliding began, but the downward trend has been replaced by the development of democratic processes. By 2023, three other countries managed to regain the level of democracy they had at the start of the authoritarian retreat — Lesotho, the Maldives and Zambia. For each of these countries, this U-turn took a decade or longer.
Against the backdrop of de-democratisation and the strengthening of authoritarianism in Asia and Africa, Latin America demonstrates a fairly stable inclination in the opposite direction, despite historical dictatorships and current economic problems. The majority of citizens in the region (more than 80% of the population) live in electoral democracies (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Panama), while a small proportion (about 5%) live in liberal democracies (Chile, Suriname and Uruguay). The level of democracy in these countries has also increased over the past year. This is primarily the result of the recent highly competitive elections in Brazil, the most populous country in the region, but Bolivia and Honduras are showing similar processes of democratic revitalisation.
An important episode that has taken place to the contrary is the decline of democracy in Mexico, where the ruling political force tends to exert pressure on the media and the opposition. Mexico's transition from decades of party autocracy to electoral democracy appeared to be one of the most inspiring examples of its kind at the end of the 20th century. However, as it stands, according to the V-Dem classification, the country can already be classified as a 'grey zone' between electoral democracies and autocracies.
The balance of these two trends — continued de-democratisation and signs of reversal — remains unfavourable in quantitative terms. There are 2.8 billion people in the 42 countries where the democratic situation deteriorated over the past year. However, half of these are the 1.4 billion inhabitants of India, where democratic institutions continue to deteriorate under the current prime minister, Narendra Modi, who represents nationalist forces. In contrast, the countries where experts have recorded signs of democratisation over the past year (18 such countries) are home to only 400 million people, with more than half of them in Brazil.
De-democratisation remains the dominant trend worldwide, however, it does not appear to be a total process and is encountering increasing resistance in many countries. Experts even cautiously suggest that this unfavourable trend may be waning. The Democratisation Index, based on data from another global project by Freedom House, also indicates that the annual decline in democracy, which has been observed for the past decade and a half, has probably come to a halt.
This year, 2024, as we know, is a year of super-elections: electoral campaigns will take place in 60 countries. According to V-Dem's estimates, half of these (31) have seen a regression of democracy in recent years, while only three have seen positive trends. Elections may consolidate and legitimise the current balance of power, but in some places they may mobilise citizens in favour of democracy and create conditions for trend reversal. In this regard, this year will be crucial, and certainly one of the key events will be the outcome of the US presidential election, which will send an important signal about the immediate prospects for liberalism and democratisation.