Growth in demand for Russian gas over the next three years will be much more modest than previously assumed, says a new forecast by the International Energy Agency.
In the baseline scenario, by 2025 pipeline gas exports from Russia to the EU could fall by more than half from their 2021 levels.
In case of the growing consensus between European nations on the policy to refuse Russian gas and its implementation by the European Commission, as well as Russia's counter measures to limit gas supplies to the European market, an accelerated displacement of Russian gas might follow; in this scenario, gas exports over the same period would triple.
At the same time, it would take Russia at least ten years to redirect such a volume of gas to Asia, assuming ample investment funds are found.