04.07.22 Review

Снижение промышленного производства в России за три месяца войны экономисты оценивают в 4,5–7%, в июне сокращение продолжается

The rate of decline in Russian industrial production slowed down in May, according to the official Federal State Statistics Service data, usually published at the end of the month following the reporting month. However, the deceleration factors may have a temporary or one-time nature, the Center for Macroeconomic Forecasting comments.

On the whole, according to the Center's calculations, the cumulative decrease in industrial production over the three months amounted to nearly 7% (6.9% of the February maximum), while according to the Federal State Statistics Service calculations, industry has decreased by 4.6% since December 2021. One way or another, this is a very significant decline, the peculiarity of which is that it varies greatly in scale throughout different industries.

The biggest contribution to the accumulated drop was made by the mining sector (despite demonstrating a slight growth in May), metal industry, transport machine building, production of electrical appliances, electronics and optics, as well as motor vehicle production.

In June the industry production drop has continued, as evidenced by indirect leading indicators — reduction in electricity consumption and railroad loading.