The Global Struggle for the Global South: The US is continuing to lose popularity in the developing world, but China has not yet emerged as a credible alternative

Gallup's latest large-scale global leadership survey, which polls 130 countries, shows that neither the US nor China is succeeding in attempts to attract new 'non-aligned countries', or the countries in the Global South that prefer to reap economic benefits from the rivalry of the global powers seeking 'keys' to them. Generally speaking, the positions of the four powers — the US, China, Germany and Russia — are virtually unchanged from last year's survey (→ Re:Russia: Multipolar Disapproval). The median approval rating among the 130 countries surveyed was 46% for Germany, 41% for the US, 30% for China and 22% for Russia. Assessments of Russia rose over the seven years from 2014 to 2021 and were higher than China's (33-34% in 2020-2021), but fell by a third after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

Evaluations of the US leadership have not changed since last year, but have deteriorated in the Global South. Among the largest countries in Latin America, the balance of approval ratings has worsened by 3-4 percentage points and remains negative: in Brazil, 38% disapprove of the US leadership compared to 32% of those who approve, in Argentina the gap is even greater with 45% compared to 23%, and in Mexico it stands at 54% to 32%. In Asia, the most striking change is the sharp decline in the approval ratings of the US in India which have dropped by 11 points (although the balance remains positive: 38% approve of the US compared to 27% who are sceptical). Attitudes towards the US in Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have noticeably worsened (down 9-16 points). A more favourable balance of assessments (mostly positive) is observed in South-East Asia (probably affected by concerns about China's dominance), and an unfavourable, mostly negative one predominates in the Middle East. Apart from the expected opinions in Iran and Palestine, Turkey has the highest negative rating for the US. The balance of favourable and unfavourable attitudes in Asia is zero for the US: 37% positive ratings compared to 37% negative. China’s balance of assessments is at -10 points (33% vs. 43%). 

This data correlates with the assessments of think tanks, which believe, for the most part, that the US has failed to form an effective and coherent strategy in this area, and that the expansion of economic cooperation and trade has not become the basis for thoughtful political engagement.

However, the same might also be said for China's strategy. China's actions to promote its influence among the states of the Global South can be considered much more systematic and active than those of the United States. For example, China's ambitious Belt and Road Initiative was launched in 2013 and aims to attract developing countries with investment and infrastructural influence; in 2022, China proposed the Global Security Initiative, which aims to promote Beijing's views on international issues, with an emphasis on territorial sovereignty and non-interference. However, as Chinese foreign policy expert Elizabeth Economy writes in Foreign Affairs, none of this is bearing much fruit. China is more successful in undermining US global influence than in advancing its own agenda. The country has resources (investment, technology, labour), but the ideological matrix that President Xi wants to make an alternative to the liberal-democratic order of the West and the US is too vague.

This is well illustrated by the example of Africa. For the past 15-20 years, China has been actively investing in African economies: financial flows have grown from $75 million in 2003 to $5 billion in 2021. Since 2013, Chinese investments have replaced American ones; prior to the pandemic, China was actively exporting labour to countries in the region. This is largely why, in Africa, according to Gallup, China's approval rating is significantly higher than its disapproval rating (58% vs. 21%). Nevertheless, Africa cannot be said to have 'switched' to China in a geopolitical sense. Although the balance of approval for the US leadership lags slightly behind that of China, they are fairly similar: 56% approve of the US and 24% disapprove. China's economic expansion is impressive, but is built on pragmatic grounds rather than on values or ideological grounds.

A total of 74 countries in the world had a positive balance of evaluations of the US in 2024 and 59 had a negative balance of evaluations. China has the opposite distribution: 58 compared to 76. To more accurately measure the relative soft power advantage of the US and China, Gallup has constructed a corresponding index (the index is formed by adding the positive rating of the US and the negative rating of China for the US and inversely for China). The US has a soft power advantage in 81 countries, while China has a soft power advantage in 58 countries. However, a marked difference is also seen in the quality of relations. 29 countries can be described as strongly aligned with the US (allied relations) and another 17 as aligned, though not as strongly aligned; for China, there are 6 and 3 such countries, respectively. Thus, while the US is winning the soft power competition, China is slowly increasing its influence.

Soft power effectiveness of the US and China, 2023, number of countries by level of connectivity

As for Russia, it has slightly strengthened its position in Asia and Africa over the past year, but has a very weak position in both the Americas and Europe.

Approval of China and Russia in the world, 2023, % of those surveyed by continent